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Climate change impact on world and regional food security

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H02317
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 41050:Environmental agriculture-related
Research InstitutionJapan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences

Principal Investigator

Furuya Jun  国立研究開発法人国際農林水産業研究センター, 社会科学領域, 領域長 (60399368)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 草野 栄一  国立研究開発法人国際農林水産業研究センター, 社会科学領域, 主任研究員 (00560187)
松下 秀介  筑波大学, 生命環境系, 教授 (50355468)
中谷 朋昭  東京大学, 大学院農学生命科学研究科(農学部), 准教授 (60280864)
飯泉 仁之直  国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農業環境研究部門, 上級研究員 (60616613)
古橋 元  農林水産省農林水産政策研究所, その他部局等, 上席主任研究官 (70468750)
澤内 大輔  北海道大学, 農学研究院, 講師 (90550450)
小泉 達治  農林水産省農林水産政策研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (80415637)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,780,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥7,020,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,620,000)
Keywords世界食料モデル / 世界コメ需給モデル / 全球収量予測モデル / 要因分解 / 気候変動 / 栄養素 / 食料 / 栄養 / コロナ禍 / 食料安全保障 / フードセキュリティ / フードセキュリティー / 適応策 / 作物モデル / 需給モデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The forecasted food supply of the world food model EMELIA was changed to nutrients. The results showed that supply of iron in African region was expected to decrease. The forecasted price of the world rice model RECC indicated that the price fluctuation of Japonica rice was greater than that of other types of rice because of increase in rainfall in China. Furthermore, variances of per capita rice supply in Asian countries were decomposed into variances and covariances of per capita production, trade, and stock change. The results revealed that stock change and trade would stabilize domestic food supply.
The adaptation cost to climate change was estimated using yield forecasting model CYGMA. The results show that if shift of transplanting season was taken as a countermeasure to increase air temperature in 2℃, the cost would be 61 billion dollars and the damage of decrease in yield would be 19 billion dollars.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

EMELIAは、多くの国・地域、農産物を対象とし、また、弾力性などパラメータの出所が明らかである。収量関数に作物プロセスモデルを組み込み、気候変数に関わるパラメータを可変とし、長期予測に耐えるものである。RECCは、ジャポニカ米とインディカ米を分けて分析できる、世界で初めてのコメ需給モデルであり、その有用性は、OECDで高い評価を得ている。
CYGMAは、メッシュ単位の主要作物の収量予測モデルであり、収量は、二酸化炭素濃度の上昇、施肥量変化、研究開発投資額に反応する。それらの成果を学会やオンライン公開ワークショップで公表し、気候変動が食料安全保障に与える影響見通しの形成の一端を担った。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report

Research Products

(33 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 13 results,  Open Access: 8 results) Presentation (13 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] OECD(経済協力開発機構)(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国農業大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国連食糧農業機関(FAO)(その他の国・地域)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 経済協力開発機構(OECD)(その他の国・地域)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Nutrition as an integral dimension of global food security: Arguments in FAO's flagship publications2022

    • Author(s)
      Eiichi Kusano
    • Journal Title

      開発学研究

      Volume: 32(3) Pages: 18-27

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 大規模経営の生産性水準は中小規模経営よりも高いのか? ―中国酪農を事例とした生産性と規模の関連 性分析―2022

    • Author(s)
      増山巽・日田アトム・澤内大輔・近藤功庸・山本康貴
    • Journal Title

      農業経済研究

      Volume: 93(4) Pages: 401-406

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A review of global gridded cropping system data products2021

    • Author(s)
      Kwang-Hyung Kim, Yasuhiro Doi, Navin Ramankutty, Toshichika Iizumi
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Research Letters

      Volume: 16 Pages: 093005-093005

    • DOI

      10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f4

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The global dataset of historical yields for major crops 1981-20162020

    • Author(s)
      Iizumi T, Sakai T
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Data

      Volume: 7 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41597-020-0433-7

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evaluating the Contribution of Soybean Rust-Resistant Cultivars to Soybean Production and theSoybean Market in Brazil: A Supply and DemandModel Analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Ishikawa YI, Furuya J
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 12 Pages: 1422-1422

    • DOI

      10.3390/su12041422

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Modeling the Global Sowing and Harvesting Windows of Major Crops Around the Year 20002019

    • Author(s)
      Iizumi Toshichika、Kim Wonsik、Nishimori Motoki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

      Volume: 11 Pages: 99-112

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018ms001477

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 世界のフードセキュリティの展開とシフトする穀物等の国際市場構造2019

    • Author(s)
      古橋 元, 小泉 達治, 草野 栄一
    • Journal Title

      開発学研究

      Volume: 30(2) Pages: 7-19

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Japanese Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Atomu Nitta, Daisuke Sawauchi, Yongfu Chen, Hirokazu Akahori & Yasutaka Yamamoto
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University

      Volume: 74(1) Pages: 1-14

    • NAID

      120006620596

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] バイオエタノール需給が国際とうもろこし価格に与える影響のシミュレーション分析-米国及び主要国の生産と日本の輸入の影響-2019

    • Author(s)
      小泉達治
    • Journal Title

      農業経済研究

      Volume: 90(4) Pages: 401-406

    • NAID

      130007815790

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 世界のバイオディーゼル生産が世界の大豆・大豆製品需給に与える影響試算2019

    • Author(s)
      小泉達治
    • Journal Title

      フードシステム研究

      Volume: 25(4) Pages: 171-176

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Agricultural investments on World Wheat Market under Climate Change: Effects of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System, and Development and Maintenance of Infrastructure2018

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuji Koizumi
    • Journal Title

      Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly

      Volume: 53(2) Pages: 109-125

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Food Loss and the World Rice Market in Asian Countries2018

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuji Koizumi
    • Journal Title

      Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly

      Volume: 52(3) Pages: 181-196

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] バイオ燃料が世界の食料需給及びフードセキュリティに与える影響2018

    • Author(s)
      小泉達治
    • Journal Title

      農林水産政策研究

      Volume: 28 Pages: 25-62

    • NAID

      120006810676

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 食料供給安定性の要因分解分析2021

    • Author(s)
      澤内 大輔
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19のインディカ及びジャポニカ米市場への影響-国際コメ市場モデルを開発して-2021

    • Author(s)
      古橋 元・小泉 達治
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] コロナ禍が世界各国の食料供給に与える影響2021

    • Author(s)
      古家 淳
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 世界の穀物生産における気候変動適応コスト2019

    • Author(s)
      飯泉 仁之直
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動における時系列分析-文献レビュー-2019

    • Author(s)
      中谷 朋昭, 木村 勇輝
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アジア諸国における食料自給率変化の要因2019

    • Author(s)
      澤内 大輔, 赤堀 弘和, 日田アトム, 山本 康貴
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 確率分析によるコメ単収の潜在的変動の影響について-主要コメ輸出国の肥料価格変動を伴ったコメ単収の潜在的変動予測-2019

    • Author(s)
      古橋 元
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動が栄養供給に与える影響の世界食料モデル分析-アフリカ地域の栄養素供給の推移-2019

    • Author(s)
      古家 淳
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 中国大豆作における総合生産性変化の要因分解:2005年から2015年を対象として2019

    • Author(s)
      董 思源, 日田 アトム, 澤内 大輔, 近藤 功庸, 山本 康貴
    • Organizer
      地域農林経済学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動が世界の食料需給に与える影響2018

    • Author(s)
      古家淳
    • Organizer
      日本地域学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 世界のフードセキュリティの展開とシフトする穀物等の国際市場2018

    • Author(s)
      古橋元・小泉達治・草野栄一
    • Organizer
      日本国際地域開発学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] バイオエタノール需給が国際とうもろこし価格に与える影響のシミュレーション分析-米国及び主要国の生産と日本の輸入の影響-2018

    • Author(s)
      小泉達治
    • Organizer
      日本農業経済学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 世界のバイオディーゼル生産が世界の大豆・大豆製品需給に与える影響試算2018

    • Author(s)
      小泉達治
    • Organizer
      日本フードシステム学会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Development of an Economic Model for Evaluation of Climate Change in the Long-run for International Agriculture: EMELIA2020

    • Author(s)
      Jun Furuya
    • Total Pages
      186
    • Publisher
      Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Iizumi T., Hirata R., Matsuda R. (eds) Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture2019

    • Author(s)
      Iizumi T
    • Publisher
      Springer, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Iizumi T., Hirata R., Matsuda R. (eds) Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture2019

    • Author(s)
      Iizumi T, Kim W
    • Publisher
      Springer, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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