Causal inference of the monetary policy effect

• Project/Area Number: 18K01558
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Toyoichiro Shirota 北海道大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (80783951)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 金融政策 / 政策効果 / 実証分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project executes empirical assessments of the efficacy of the monetary policy. The focus of this project is the state dependency. I published three articles in international refereed journals and made presentations for three times in domestic and international conferences/workshops. In addition, I released one discussion paper.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で明らかにされた金融政策効果の状態依存性は、これまであまり顧みられることがなかった点を取り上げており学術的な新規性は高い。また本事業から得られた成果は、学術的なものに留まらず、実際の中央銀行の政策運営についても、具体的な示唆に富んでいる。例えば、政策効果のサイズ依存性を明らかにしたことは、十分な利下げ余地がない場合に、中央銀行がどの様な政策を選択すべきかについて、実証的な裏付けを与えている。また、株買入の状態依存性については、より少ない金額で高い効果を上げることが可能であることを示唆しており、現実的な政策インプリケーションを持つ。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Cost of Sticky Prices under Multiple Stages of Production (2021)
  • Author(s): SHIROTA TOYOICHIRO
  • Journal Title: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Volume: - Issue: 5 Pages: 1211-1222
  • DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12786
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Causal Effects of the BOJ's Stock Market Interventions (2021)
  • Author(s): Shirota, Toyoichiro
  • Journal Title: Hokkaido University Faculty of Economics Discussion paper series. A 357 Volume: - Pages: 1-10
• [Journal Article] Is Bigger More Effective? Shock Size and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy (2021)
  • Author(s): Shirota, Toyoichiro
  • Journal Title: Macroeconomic Dynamics Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Costs of sticky prices under multiple stages of production (2020)
  • Author(s): Toyoichiro Shirota
  • Journal Title: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking Volume: accepted
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Shock matters for estimating monetary policy rules (2019)
  • Author(s): Shirota Toyoichiro
  • Journal Title: Economics Letters Volume: 181 Pages: 54-56
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.04.031
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 金融制ルールと金融政策ショック (2019)
  • Author(s): 代田豊一郎
  • Organizer: RCAST マクロセミナー
• [Presentation] Shock size matters for US monetary policy (2019)
  • Author(s): Toyoichiro Shirota
  • Organizer: Annual Meeting of the Eastern Economic Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Shock size matters for US monetary policy (2019)
  • Author(s): Toyoichiro Shirota
  • Organizer: International Meeting of the Western Economic Association International
  • Int'l Joint Research