A quantitative analysis of retail electricity market liberalization using panel data

• Project/Area Number: 18K01603
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: TAKAGI Shingo 北海道大学, 経済学研究院, 教授 (10326283)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 高良 佑樹 千葉経済大学, 経済学部, 講師 (90835860)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: パネルデータ / 構造推定 / 電力自由化 / 標本選別モデル / EMアルゴリズム / 入札モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using bidding data from retail electricity markets, we estimated a structural asymmetric auction model and derived empirical implications on the liberalization of the retail markets in Japan. When an incumbent and new entrants are competitive in terms of supply costs, it would be possible to improve both efficiencies in the asymmetric auction and consumer surplus simultaneously. However, when the cost advantage of the incumbent over new entrants is too strong, or the promotion of new entrants is too excessive, auction efficiencies and social costs would be deteriorated. This implies that a modest management of market competition is important.
We also studied an inference procedure of nonlinear panel data models with additive and interactive fixed effects and an empirical method to derive implications from the fixed effect estimates. The method was applied to empirical studies of the international trade of cultural goods.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

半ば公的な既存業者と民間の新規参入業者による非対称な競争状態をモデル化した入札モデルを，間接推定法を用いて構造推定する本論文のアプローチは，既存文献で行われておらず，投稿先の学術誌においてもその点は新規性があることは評価された．多くの改訂を要求されているため現在改訂中であるものの，この論文は入札モデルの構造推定分野での新しい貢献となりうる．
電力小売市場は近年大きな混乱を見せており，その原因は様々であるが，社会的に望ましい資源配分を実現しうる政策があること，競争促進を行うことだけが社会的に望ましい配分を実現する上で重要であると言えないことを定量的に確認できたことは実証的な価値を持つと言える．

Research Products

• [Presentation] Measuring the asymmetric effects of cultural relations on music trade using a sample selection model with additive and interactive fixed effects (2020)
  • Author(s): TAKARA, Yuki and TAKAGI, Shingo
  • Organizer: The 20th International Conference on Cultural Economics 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Measuring Unobserved Cultural Effects on Music Trade: Grouping Interactive Fixed Effects in Sample Selection Models (2020)
  • Author(s): TAKARA, Yuki and TAKAGI, Shingo
  • Organizer: Data Science, Statistics & Visualisation 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Measuring unobserved cultural effects on music trade: grouping interactive fixed effects in sample selection models (2019)
  • Author(s): Shingo TAKAGI, Yuki TAKARA
  • Organizer: Data Science, Statistics & Visualization 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Unobserved Cultural Relations and Cultural Goods Trade: Empirical Approaches to Cultural Studies (2019)
  • Author(s): Yuki TAKARA
  • Organizer: The Fifth Asian Workshop on Cultural Economics (AWCE 2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Measuring The Asymmetric Effects of Cultural Relations On Music Trade Using A Sample Selection Model With Additive and Interactive Fixed Effects (2018)
  • Author(s): Yuki TAKARA, Shingo TAKAGI
  • Organizer: The 20th International Conference on Cultural Economics, (Melbourne, Australia),
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Remarks] 電力小売市場にかんする構造推定論文
  • URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/19-18.html
• [Remarks]
  • URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/19-18.html