| Project/Area Number |
18K01684
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
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| Research Institution | Osaka University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | 経常収支 / 不完全情報 / 国際金融 / 開放経済モデル / 行動経済学 / 為替レート / 小国経済 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The current account dynamics are one of the most important issues for policymakers and macroeconomists. The data in most countries suggest that the current account is persistent and volatile, and thus the current account deficits and surpluses are difficult to be balanced. Many attempts to explain the current account dynamics have been made in the previous studies. However, these attempts are based on the rational expectations hypothesis. In this research project, I focus on the role of imperfect information held by economic agents in the current account dynamics. Using the sticky information model, I consider how the delay of expectation adjustment contributes to the current account persistence and volatility. I also study various imperfect information models to explore the importance of information in open economy models.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
標準理論からは、金融危機の一因であったグローバル・インバランス等、経常収支の変動を予測することが難しいことが知られている。再びグローバル・インバランスの懸念が高まっている中で、経常収支の慣性やボラティリティの理解は世界経済が潜在的にもつリスクや経済政策の理解に役立つ可能性がある。また、不完全情報の理論は、開放経済モデル、閉鎖経済モデルに限らず、様々な分野で応用可能性が高いと思われるため、その開発は学術的な意義が高い。
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