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Elucidation of qualitative changes in securities markets caused by accelerating transactions and AI

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K01692
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionOsaka City University

Principal Investigator

Nakajima Yoshihiro  大阪市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (40336798)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 森 直樹  大阪府立大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (90295717)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Keywords人工市場 / HFT / U-Mart / 人工知能 / 組成 / 逆問題 / AI / 株価
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The following three studies were conducted to ready the impact of the acceleration of the securities market, thee increase in algorithm trading, and the development of AI technology on the securities market. (1) Through simulation using artificial markets, we research the complexity arisen from trading by various agents and the complexity brought about by their interactions. We found even if each trading algorithms are simple traditional methods, combination of trading algorithm arise the complexity. (2) We developed a trading agents using deep learning and the agents showed sufficient performance in the artificial electric power market. (3) In order to carry out the above research, the artificial market simulator U-Mart system was improved and used.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、証券市場の高速化とアルゴリズム取引の急増及びAI技術の進展が証券市場にもたらす影響を調べるための方法として、エージェント・ベース・シミュレーションの1形態である人工市場研究が有効である事を示すことができた。実際、単純な取引アルゴリズムが複数組み合わされることで生じる複雑さは、複雑系研究で分類された範疇を超えるものであり、暴落や暴騰の予測可能性などを議論する際には、こうした実験的方法が必要となる。また、また、ディープラーニングを始めとした複雑な内部規則を持つアルゴリズム取引の有効性を評価するためには、様々な環境における行動と結果を吟味する必要がある。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (22 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 6 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Simulation of foraging behavior using a decision-making agent with Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference: Temporal correlations and power laws in displacement patterns2022

    • Author(s)
      Shinohara Shuji、Okamoto Hiroshi、Manome Nobuhito、Gunji Pegio-Yukio、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Moriyama Toru、Chung Ung-il
    • Journal Title

      Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

      Volume: 157 Pages: 111976-111976

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111976

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Power Laws Derived from a Bayesian Decision-Making Model in Non-Stationary Environments2021

    • Author(s)
      Shinohara Shuji、Manome Nobuhito、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Gunji Yukio Pegio、Moriyama Toru、Okamoto Hiroshi、Mitsuyoshi Shunji、Chung Ung-il
    • Journal Title

      Symmetry

      Volume: 13 Issue: 4 Pages: 718-718

    • DOI

      10.3390/sym13040718

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The Minimum Heterogeneous Agent Configuration to Realize the Future Price Time Series Similar to Any Given Spot Price Time Series in the AI Market Experiment2020

    • Author(s)
      Aruka Yuji、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Mori Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

      Volume: 1009 Pages: 85-92

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-030-38227-8_11

    • ISBN
      9783030382261, 9783030382278
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report 2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Extended Bayesian inference incorporating symmetry bias2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinohara Shuji、Manome Nobuhito、Suzuki Kouta、Chung Ung-il、Takahashi Tatsuji、Gunji Pegio-Yukio、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Mitsuyoshi Shunji
    • Journal Title

      Biosystems

      Volume: 190 Pages: 104104-104104

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104104

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report 2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A new method of Bayesian causal inference in non-stationary environments2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinohara Shuji、Manome Nobuhito、Suzuki Kouta、Chung Ung-il、Takahashi Tatsuji、Okamoto Hiroshi、Gunji Yukio Pegio、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Mitsuyoshi Shunji
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 15 Issue: 5 Pages: e0233559-e0233559

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0233559

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] An examination of market mechanism with redundancies motivated by Turing’s rule selection2018

    • Author(s)
      Aruka Yuji、Nakajima Yoshihiro、Mori Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review

      Volume: 2018 November Issue: 1 Pages: 1-24

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40844-018-0115-8

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Applying the argument on Frame Problem to Caltivate Creativity - International Education as Universal Higher Education-2022

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Nakajima
    • Organizer
      ‘Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on Business and its future in the NEW NORMAL’, TMV International Conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The minimum heterogeneous agent configuration to realize the future price time series in the AI market experiment and its visible graphs2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuji Aruka, Yoshihiro Nakajima, Naoki Mori, Shuji Shinohara
    • Organizer
      第26回進化経済学会京都大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 目的関数空間の構造に基づく分析エネルギープラント運用計画問題の最適化2022

    • Author(s)
      尾關 拓巳, 森 直樹
    • Organizer
      電気学会 分野横断型新システム創成研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The minimum heterogeneous agent configuration to realize the future price time series in the AI market experiment: an updated version2021

    • Author(s)
      Yuji Aruka, Yoshihiro Nakajima, Naoki Mori, Shuji Shinohara
    • Organizer
      The Second Conference on Zero/Minimal Intelligence Agents, Yale School of Management
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The minimum heterogeneous agent configuration to realize the future price time series in the AI market experiment2021

    • Author(s)
      Yuji Aruka, Yoshihiro Nakajima, Naoki Mori, Shuji Shinohara
    • Organizer
      WEHIA2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Minimum Heterogeneous Agent Configuration to Realize the Future Price Time Series Similar to Any Given Spot Price Time Series in the AI Market Experiment2020

    • Author(s)
      Yuji Aruka, Yoshihiro Nakajima, Naoki Mori
    • Organizer
      The First Conference on Zero/Minimal Intelligence Agents
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 異質的エージェントの最小構成による価格時系列の再現とインタラクティブセルラーオートマン2020

    • Author(s)
      有賀裕二、中島義裕、森直樹
    • Organizer
      第25回進化経済学会 静岡大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] U-Mart システムに基づく電力取引シミュレータにおける実市場再現手法の提案2019

    • Author(s)
      青野義樹, 小川恭子, 森 直樹, 岡田 真
    • Organizer
      電気学会電子・情報・システム部門大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 進化型機械学習に基づく問題解決手法の提案2019

    • Author(s)
      小川 恭子, 森 直樹
    • Organizer
      電気学会 電子・情報・システム部門情報システム技術委員会第78回情報システム研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 深層強化学習を用いたデイトレード戦略獲得手法の検討2018

    • Author(s)
      森 大典,森 直樹,松本 啓之亮,渡邊 順一朗
    • Organizer
      平成30年 電気学会 電子・情報・システム部門大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] U-Martシステムを基盤としたエネルギー取引シミュレータの提案2018

    • Author(s)
      中野 洋志,大嶺 貴晃,森 直樹,松本 啓之亮,平野 秀明,北村 聖一,森 一之
    • Organizer
      平成30年 電気学会 電子・情報・システム部門大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 深層強化学習 Rainbow を用いたデイトレード戦略獲得手法の獲得2018

    • Author(s)
      森 大典,森 直樹
    • Organizer
      電気学会 システム産業計測制御合同研究会「確率的最適化の動向と産業応用ベンチマーク問題」
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Systemic Risk in Order Driven Market2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Nakajima, Isao Ono, Naoki Mori
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Artificial Market 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] U-Mart Toolkit: A General-Purpose Artificial Market Development Toolkit Library2018

    • Author(s)
      Isao Ono, Naoki Mori and Yoshihiro Nakajima
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Artificial Market 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Difference Between Demand and Order based Models in Artificial Stock Market2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Nakajima, Isao Ono, Naoki Mori, Hiroshi Sato, Yuji Aruka
    • Organizer
      The 56th PES Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 価値創造と分散型市場設計 第三章 分担執筆2020

    • Author(s)
      有賀 裕二
    • Total Pages
      514
    • Publisher
      中央大学出版部
    • ISBN
      9784805732410
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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