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Statistical inferences for network time series models with geometrical restrictions and their applications to financial martkets

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K01706
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionNanzan University (2021-2022)
Tokyo University of Science (2018-2020)

Principal Investigator

Takayuki Shiohama  南山大学, 理工学部, 教授 (40361844)

Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywords方向統計学 / 金融市場分析 / ネットワークモデル / 空間統計モデル / 推薦システム / 識別可能性 / 空間統計学 / 複雑ネットワーク / 統計的推測理論 / 空間不平等性 / 信用デリバティブ評価 / ポートフォリオ最適化 / ファクター投資 / リスク管理 / 高次元時系列解析 / 時系列解析 / 計量ファイナンス / 資本資産価格モデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is growing interest in applying statistical models and methods to the data and models that are restricted to some geometric structures of the state spaces or parameter spaces. In this research topic, we have studied various aspects of models and methods in statistical approaches in data sciences. First, we consider the performance of portfolios based on the risk-parity strategy. Second, we proposed a skew-symmetric probability distribution family and studied the proposed models' statistical properties. Thirdly, we have developed and evaluated data analysis methods with geometrical parameters and data structures, such as spatial statistical models and recommendation systems.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により, 幾何構造をもつさまざまな統計モデルの金融市場分析, 不動産市場分析, 情報サービスへの応用可能性があきらかにされた. これらの基礎研究に基づいた高度なAI手法や, データサイエンスへの展開が期待できることは大きな意義がある. また, 方向統計学における, 一連の歪対称分布の統計的性質に関する学術的成果は, 超球面上あるいは, 高度に複雑な多様体上の確率モデルの発展の基礎を与える研究成果である.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (50 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (16 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 12 results) Presentation (29 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 17 results,  Invited: 9 results) Book (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Identifiability of asymmetric circular and cylindrical distributions2022

    • Author(s)
      Miyata, Y., Shiohama, T., and Abe, T.
    • Journal Title

      Sankhya A

      Volume: - Issue: 2 Pages: 1-21

    • DOI

      10.1007/s13171-022-00294-3

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Topic model-based recommender systems and their applications to cold-start problems2022

    • Author(s)
      Kawai, M., Sato, H., and Shiohama, T.
    • Journal Title

      Expert Systems With Applications

      Volume: 202 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117129

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Statistical Properties of Massey’s Rating and Their Application to Network Analysis2022

    • Author(s)
      黒木裕鷹, 塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      Kodo Keiryogaku (The Japanese Journal of Behaviormetrics)

      Volume: 49 Issue: 2 Pages: 237-251

    • DOI

      10.2333/jbhmk.49.237

    • ISSN
      0385-5481, 1880-4705
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Land price polarization and dispersion in Tokyo: a spatial model approach2022

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kanno and T. Shiohama
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science

      Volume: Online Published Issue: 2 Pages: 807-835

    • DOI

      10.1007/s41685-021-00221-8

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 多様体上の時系列解析2021

    • Author(s)
      塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      理大科学フォーラム: 東京理科大学科学教養雑誌

      Volume: 39号3巻 Pages: 24-30

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Bayesian estimation for mode and anti-mode preserving circular distributions2021

    • Author(s)
      T. Abe, Y. Miyata, and T. Shiohama
    • Journal Title

      Econometrics and Statistics

      Volume: - Pages: 136-160

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.03.004

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 地理的加重回帰モデルによる東京都公示地価の分析とその推定値の経年変化について2021

    • Author(s)
      菅野雄太, 塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      統計研究彙報

      Volume: 第78号 Pages: 55-74

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 東京都公示地価の普遍型クリギングにおける空間バリオグラムの経年変化について2020

    • Author(s)
      菅野雄太, 塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      応用統計学

      Volume: 49巻2号 Issue: 2 Pages: 47-69

    • DOI

      10.5023/jappstat.49.47

    • NAID

      130007953791

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of finite mixture models of skew-symmetric circular distributions2020

    • Author(s)
      Y. Miyata, T. Shiohama, and T. Abe
    • Journal Title

      Metrika

      Volume: 83 Issue: 8 Pages: 895-922

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00184-019-00756-z

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report 2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 円柱データの確率分布と隠れマルコフモデルについて2020

    • Author(s)
      塩濱敬之, 宮田庸一, 阿部俊弘
    • Journal Title

      京都大学数理解析研究所講究録

      Volume: 2157巻 Pages: 39-51

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Constructing inverse factor volatility portfolios: A risk-based asset allocation for factor investing2020

    • Author(s)
      H. Shimizu and T. Shiohama
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Financial Analysis

      Volume: - Pages: 101438-101438

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101438

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multifactor portfolio construction by factor risk parity strategies: An empirical comparison of global stock markets2019

    • Author(s)
      Shimizu, H. and Shiohama, T.
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Financial Analysis

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 4 Pages: 453-477

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10690-019-09274-4

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 正弦関数に基づく非対称な円周分布の推定理論における諸問題について2019

    • Author(s)
      宮田庸一, 塩濱敬之, 阿部俊弘
    • Journal Title

      数理解析研究所講究録

      Volume: 2124 Pages: 28-43

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Practically feasible recommender systems for cold start problems2019

    • Author(s)
      Kawai, M., Shiohma, T., and Sato, H.
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of 2018 5th Asia-Pacic World Congress on Computer Science and Engineering

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 日本株式市場におけるファクター・リスクパリティ・ ポートフォリオの実践2018

    • Author(s)
      清水英彦・塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      証券アナリストジャーナル

      Volume: 56 Pages: 66-75

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 非対称な円周分布による有限混合分布とその 推定について2018

    • Author(s)
      宮田陽一・阿部俊弘・塩濱敬之
    • Journal Title

      数理解析研究所講究録

      Volume: 2091 Pages: 96-115

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Markov Models for Cylindrical Time Series Data2023

    • Author(s)
      Shiohama, T.
    • Organizer
      Bergamo-Waseda Workshop on Inference for Stochastic Processes and Applications , Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Universita Degle Studi Di Bergamo
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Complex-Valued Time Series Modeling with Relations to Directional Statistics2023

    • Author(s)
      Shiohama, T.
    • Organizer
      Luxembourg-Waseda Conference on Modeling and Inference for Complex Data , Universite du Luxembourg
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Complex-Valued Time Series Modeling with Relations to Directional Statistics2022

    • Author(s)
      Shiohama, T.
    • Organizer
      15th International Conference on ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Probabilistic Singular Value Decomposition: A Probabilistic Model on the Standard Simplex2022

    • Author(s)
      河合 未夢, 佐藤 寛之, 塩濱 敬之
    • Organizer
      日本応用数理学会2022年度年会 , 日本応用数理学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] マーシーのレーティング指標の統計的性質とそのネットワーク分析への応用2022

    • Author(s)
      黒木裕鷹,塩浜 敬之
    • Organizer
      日本行動計量学会第50回大会 , 日本行動計量学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Complex-valued time series modeling with relations to directional statistics2022

    • Author(s)
      Shiohama, T.
    • Organizer
      3rd international workshops on Advances in Directional Statistics (ADISTA 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Complex-Valued Time Series Modeling with Relations to Directional Statistics2022

    • Author(s)
      Shiohama, T.
    • Organizer
      5th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (ECOSTA 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Topological data analysis based classification in time series2022

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      Waseda International SymposiumTopological Data Science, Causality, Analysis of Variance & Time Series
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Finite Mixtures of Disc Distribution and Its Applications to Image Recognition2022

    • Author(s)
      S. Maki and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      IASC-ARS2022
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Geographically Weighted Regression for Official Land Prices and Their Temporal Variation in Tokyo2021

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kanno and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      ASMDA2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Topological data analysis based classification and anomaly detection in time series2021

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      Waseda Cherry Blossom Workshop on Topological Data Science
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Bootstrap estimation for rating based network centrality measures2020

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kuroki and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      NETSCIX 2020 (International school and Conference on Network Science)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Non-stationary time series classfication using topological data analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      Statistical Topological Data Analysis Workshop at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Some recent developments in time-series modeling for cylindrical data2020

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      RIMS共同研究「統計的モデルの新展開」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A multi-factor modelling for retail demand forecasting: An empirical analysis of restaurant visitors prediction2019

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kuroki and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      62nd ISI World Statistics Congress
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Testing symmetry of a mode and anti-mode preserving distribution on the circle2019

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama, T. Abe, and Y. Miyata
    • Organizer
      3rd International Confrence on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Risk-based asset allocation strategies for facror investing2019

    • Author(s)
      T.Shiohama
    • Organizer
      National Sun Yat-sen University-Waseda International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Some recent developments in time-series modeling for cylindrical data2019

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      National Cheng Kung University-Waseda International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] レーティング手法を用いたネットワーク中心性の構築とその統計的性質2019

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kuroki and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      科学研究費・基盤研究(A)(課題番号:15H01678)シンポジウム「多様な分野における統計科学に関する諸問題」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Hidden Markov models for cylindrical data and its application for animal mocement analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      T. Kotsubo and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      科学研究費・基盤研究(A)(課題番号:15H01678)シンポジウム「多様な分野における統計科学に関する諸問題」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Non-stationary time series classfication using topological data analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kuroki and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      科学研究費・基盤研究(A)(課題番号:15H01678) シンポジウム「統計的推測および確率解析に関する総合的研究」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Maximum likelihood estimation for hidden Markov models with cylindrical distributions2019

    • Author(s)
      T. Kotsubo and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      科学研究費・基盤研究(A)(課題番号:15H01678) シンポジウム「統計的推測および確率解析に関する総合的研究」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 正弦関数に基づく非対称な円周分布の推定理論における諸問題について2019

    • Author(s)
      宮田陽一・阿部俊弘・塩濱敬之
    • Organizer
      京都大学数理解析研究所 RIMS共同研究会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The mixture transition distribution modeling for higher order circular Markov processes2018

    • Author(s)
      H. Ogata and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2018)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Circular time series analysis based on the projected normal distribution2018

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama, T. Kotsubo, H. Ogata
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2018)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] The mixture transition distribution modeling for higher order circular Markov processes2018

    • Author(s)
      H. Ogata and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      11th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2018)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Adaptive estimation for mode and anti-mode preserving distribution on the circle2018

    • Author(s)
      T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      11th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2018)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Constructing Inverse Factor Volatility Portfolios: A Risk-Based Asset Allocation Approach for Factor Investing2018

    • Author(s)
      H. Shimizu and T. Shiohama
    • Organizer
      Paris Financial Management Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 位相的データ解析を用いた非定常時系列の変動特性の可視化とクラスタリング2018

    • Author(s)
      黒木裕鷹・塩濱敬之
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Data Analysis and Related Applications 1, Ch 19: Geographically Weighted Regression for Official Land Prices and their Temporal Variation in Tokyo2022

    • Author(s)
      Kanno Y. and Shiohama. T.
    • Total Pages
      478
    • Publisher
      ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc
    • ISBN
      9781786307712
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Directional Statistics for Innovative Applications, Ch12: On Some Flexible Models for Circular, Toroidal, and Cylindrical Data2022

    • Author(s)
      Abe, T., Imoto, T., Shiohama, T. and Miyata, Y.
    • Total Pages
      487
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9789811910432
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] On some flexible models for circular, toroidal, and cylindrical data (Directional Statistics for Innovative Applications2022

    • Author(s)
      Abe. T., Imoto, T., Shiohama., T., and Miyata, Y. (SenGupta and Arnold: Eds)
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9789811910432
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Data Analysis and Applications 4 - Financial Data Analysis and Methods (Ch.2) Credit portfolio risk evaluation with non-Gaussian one-factor Merton models and its application to CDO pricing in "Data Analysis and Applications 4"2020

    • Author(s)
      T. Fujii and T. Shiohama
    • Publisher
      iSTE Wiley
    • ISBN
      9781786306241
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Credit portfolio risk evaluation with non-Gaussian one-factor Merton models and its application to CDO pricing in "Data Analysis and Applications 4"2020

    • Author(s)
      T. Fujii and T. Shiohama
    • Publisher
      iSTE Wiley
    • ISBN
      9781786306241
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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