| Project/Area Number |
18K01715
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
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| Research Institution | Kwansei Gakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
Fujii Eiji 関西学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (20321961)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | 対外債務 / 原罪 / 消費のボラティリティ / 債務危機 / 通貨ポートフォリオ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
For emerging economies, borrowing abroad is a double-edged sword: it can buffer against adverse economic shocks and smooth their domestic consumption; however, it can also amplify volatility in consumption, depending on the currency in which the debt is denominated and cyclicality in the borrower’s exchange rate. We empirically investigated the nexus among external debt portfolios, exchange rate cyclicality, and volatility in consumption of low- and middle-income countries. Since 1980, many countries have concentrated their external debt portfolios’ currency composition. By constructing debt-weighted effective exchange rates, we find that currency concentration magnifies exchange rate pro-cyclicality, making domestic consumption more volatile when national income fluctuates. Our results endorse diversifying the currency composition of external debt to mitigate the negative consequences of “original sin.”
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
新興・途上国による対外債務の累積は予てから国際社会にとって大きな課題とされながら、有効な解決策を見いだせずにきた。貧困国が富裕国から借り入れるという基本構造が変わらないのであれば、債務の構成を工夫することで状況改善を模索する方が建設的であると言える。その一環として、対外債務の構成通貨の為替レートと債務国の景気循環の関係性に着目する新たな視点で課題解決の可能性を考察したのが本研究の意義である。従来は基軸通貨である米ドルでの借り入れが前提となっていたが、そのこと自体が家計の消費のボラティリティを増幅させる効果を持つことを示したことによって、今後のソブリン債発行戦略に一石を投じる成果となった。
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