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EnKF estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on LSSE faults

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K03779
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17040:Solid earth sciences-related
Research InstitutionKagawa University

Principal Investigator

Hirahara Kazuro  香川大学, 四国危機管理教育・研究・地域連携推進機構, 客員教授 (40165197)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 宮崎 真一  京都大学, 理学研究科, 教授 (00334285)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywordsデータ同化 / アンサンブルカルマンフィルタ / 長期的スロースリップ / 速度状態摩擦依存則 / GNSS / すべり発展予測 / 巨大地震発生 / 速度状態依存摩擦則 / 自発的セグメント化 / 自己組織化 / 自発的セグメンテーション / 一様な摩擦特性 / 横長なスロースリップ域 / 震源核臨界サイズ / アンサンブルカルマンフィルター / スロースリップイベント / GNSSデータ / 摩擦構成則 / 巨大地震
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using a sequential data assimilation method, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), we developed a method for estimating frictional properties and monitoring slip evolution on an LSSE fault to confirm the capability with twin numerical experiments.
Further, we applied our EnKF method to the slip rate data on the Bungo Channel LSSE fault, which were obtained from the actual GNSS data with a kinematic inversion method. First, we used the data during the whole LSEE cycle, and could successfully estimate the frictional properties. Then we showed that the limited data only during the period up to just after the period with the peak slip rates could resolve the friction properties to forecast the ending period of the LSSE cycle. This is the first result where an EnKF method can estimate the frictional properties and show the short-term predictability of slip evolution for an actual LSSE fault using the slip rate data inverted from actual GNSS observation data at the surface.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

データ同化手法は気象や海洋分野での事象予測に用いられ多くの成果を挙げている。しかしながら、地震学での適用例はまだ多くない。そこで、豊後水道長期的スロースリップ(LSSE)域を対象に、アンサンブルカルマンフィルタ(EnKF)を用いて、GNSS観測時系列をデータとして、LSSE断層面上での摩擦特性推定とすべりの発展予測を行う手法を開発した。双子数値実験によりその性能を評価し、部分的ではあるが実データを用いて、摩擦特性の推定とすべり発展予測に成功した。LSSE挙動の理解は巨大地震発生予測において重要で、巨大地震発生予測に向けてのEnKFによるLSSEのモニタリングの第一歩と評価できる。

Report

(7 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All 2024 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on a long-term slow slip event fault with the ensemble Kalman filter: numerical experiments2019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuro Hirahara and Kento Nishikiori
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Journal International

      Volume: 219 Issue: 3 Pages: 20742096-20742096

    • DOI

      10.1093/gji/ggz415

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Spontaneous segmentation of slow slip events on a planar uniform fault - Implication from numerical simulations2024

    • Author(s)
      Kento Nishikiori, Makiko Ohtani, Kazuro Hirahara
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星連合2024年大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 口頭発表2022

    • Author(s)
      摩擦特性が一様な走向方向に長い断層における長期的スロースリップのシミュレーション ~分裂発生について~
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] What controls along-strike variations in Long term SSE recurrence intervals in the Western Nankaui Subduction Zone?2021

    • Author(s)
      大畠 敬就、宮崎 真一、平原 和朗
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Ensemble Kalman Filter estimation of frictional parameters and slip evolution on L-SSE faults : application to the Bungo Channel L-SSE fault2020

    • Author(s)
      Fujita M., T. Nishimura, K. Hirahara, M. Hyodo, S. Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      Online JpGU - AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深部長期的スロースリップと長期固着域を含む南海トラフ地震サイクルシミュレーション:離散セルモデル2020

    • Author(s)
      平原和朗
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2020年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] EnKF estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on a LSSE fault and the changing slip deficit rate on a megathrust fault2019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuro Hirahara
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] EnKF estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on LSSE faults and the megathrust slip deficit rate2019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuro Hirahara
    • Organizer
      IUGG(International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics)2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] GNSSデータを用いたアンサンブルカルマンフィルタによる豊後水道長期的SSEのすべり発展推定に向けた数値実験2019

    • Author(s)
      藤田萌実・西村卓也・平原和朗・兵藤守・宮崎真一
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] GNSSデータを用いたアンサンブルカルマンフィルタによる豊後水道長期的SSEのすべり発展推定に向けた数値実験2019

    • Author(s)
      藤田萌実・西村卓也・平原和朗・兵藤守・宮崎真一
    • Organizer
      日本測地学会第132回講演会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] EnKF estimation of frictional properties and slip evolution on a LSSE fault -numerical experiments2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, K. and K. Nishikiori
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会、幕張
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] EnKF Estimation of Frictional Properties and Slip Evolution on a LSSE Fault-Numerical Experiments-2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, K. and K. Nishikiori
    • Organizer
      10th ACES International Workshop, Awaji
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] EnKFによるLSSE発生域の摩擦特性およびすべり発展推定に関する数値実験 -固着域の影響―2018

    • Author(s)
      平原和朗・錦織健人
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2018 年度秋季大会、郡山
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] EnKF Estimation of Frictional Properties and Slip Evolution on a LSSE Fault with a locked megathrust fault zone -Numerical Experiments-2018

    • Author(s)
      Hirahara, K. and K. Nishikiori
    • Organizer
      AGU 2018 Fall Meeting, Washington, D.C., U.S.A
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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