An attempt to establish a method for estimating the magma intrusion volume and the timing of eruption from volcano tectonic earthquakes

• Project/Area Number: 18K03781
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 17040:Solid earth sciences-related
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Nakamichi Haruhisa 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (00420373)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 火山構造性地震 / 群発地震 / 地震エネルギー / 噴火時刻 / 地殻変動 / 体積変化量 / 応力場 / 噴出量 / ダイク / 破壊強度 / 機械学習 / 低周波地震 / 爆発地震 / 決定木 / 特徴量 / 非階層的クラスタリング法 / 桜島火山 / マグマ貫入 / 震源 / 発震機構 / 火山性地震 / マグマ貫入量 / 地震モーメント

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Volcano tectonic earthquakes originate from brittle fracture caused by stress changes in surrounding rocks due to magma intrusion. Magma intrusion causes not only a swam of volcano tectonic earthquakes and but also significant crustal deformation. An empirical equation is derived for the volume change of the deformation sources and seismic moment (energy) of volcano tectonic earthquakes. Using this empirical formula, we can estimate the volume of magma intrusion from observations of volcano tectonic earthquakes. The growth of a dike, a form of magma intrusion, increases the stress in the surrounding rocks, and the stress exceeds the fracture strength, which explains the occurrence process of volcano tectonic earthquakes. It is also revealed that a cluster of volcano tectonic earthquakes progressed from shallow to deep depths with the growth of the dike.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

貫入したマグマの全てが噴火によって放出されるわけではないが，貫入マグマの量は放出しうるマグマ量の上限を規定する。噴火による放出量は災害の規模に関わるため，放出量の上限を事前に想定する意義がある。そのため，貫入マグマ量を推定することは重要であるが，地殻変動観測が不十分な発展途上国の火山であっても最低限は地震観測が行われているため，本研究成果の地震からのマグマ貫入量の推定手法の構築は意義がある。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] エネルギー鉱物資源省地質庁火山地質災害軽減センター(インドネシア)
• [Journal Article] A Half-Year Long Observation at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan Using a Multi-Channeled Seismometer System with Phase-Shifted Optical Interferometry (2022)
  • Author(s): Nakamichi Haruhisa, Hirayama Yoshiharu, Ikeda Toshiharu, Ando Hiroshi, Takeuchi Keiji
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 17 Issue: 5 Pages: 670-682
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0670
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2022-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] High Precision Lava Flow Simulation Using 8K Drone Digital Elevation Data (2022)
  • Author(s): Fujita Eisuke, Shimizu Hiroyuki A., Nakamichi Haruhisa
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 17 Issue: 5 Pages: 779-790
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0779
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2022-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Applying the Particle Filter to the Volcanic Ash Tracking PUFF Model for Assimilating Multi-Parameter Radar Observation (2022)
  • Author(s): Tanaka Hiroshi L., Nakamichi Haruhisa, Kondo Keiichi, Akami Shoichi, Iguchi Masato
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 17 Issue: 5 Pages: 791-804
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0791
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2022-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Continuously Operable Simulator and Forecasting the Deposition of Volcanic Ash from Prolonged Eruptions at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Iguchi Masato, Nakamichi Haruhisa, Takishita Kosei, Poulidis Alexandros P.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 17 Issue: 5 Pages: 805-817
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0805
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2022-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Practice Tomographic Methods to Estimate Three-dimensional Velocity Structures of Volcanoes (2022)
  • Author(s): 中道 治久
  • Journal Title: BULLETIN OF THE VOLCANOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: 207-220
  • DOI: 10.18940/kazan.67.2_207
  • ISSN: 0453-4360, 2189-7182
  • Year and Date: 2022-06-30
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 富士山の地下構造を地震波から探る (2022)
  • Author(s): 中道 治久
  • Journal Title: 科学 Volume: 92 Pages: 628-632
• [Journal Article] Dike Inflation Process Beneath Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, During the Earthquake Swarm of August 15, 2015 (2021)
  • Author(s): Koike Midori、Nakamichi Haruhisa
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Earth Science Volume: 8 Pages: 600223-600223
  • DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.600223
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Integrated Monitoring of Volcanic Ash and Forecasting at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Iguchi Masato、Nakamichi Haruhisa、Tanaka Hiroshi、Ohta Yusaku、Shimizu Atsushi、Miki Daisuke
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 14 Issue: 5 Pages: 798-809
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0798
  • NAID: 130007687217
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2019-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] A Newly Installed Seismic and Geodetic Observational System at Five Indonesian Volcanoes as Part of the SATREPS Project (2019)
  • Author(s): Nakamichi Haruhisa, Iguchi Masato, Triastuty Hetty, Kuswandarto Hery, Mulyana Iyan, Rosadi Umar, Gunawan Hendra, Suantika Gude, Aisyah Nurnaning, Budi-Santoso Agus, Nandaka I Gusti Made Agung
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Pages: 6-17
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0006
  • NAID: 130007599731
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2019-02-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Forecast of the Pyroclastic Volume by Precursory Seismicity of Merapi Volcano (2019)
  • Author(s): Iguchi Masato, Nakamichi Haruhisa, Miyamoto Kuniaki, Shimomura Makoto, Nandaka I Gusti Made Agung, Budi-Santoso Agus, Sulistiyani, Aisyah Nurnaning
  • Journal Title: Journal of Disaster Research Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Pages: 51-60
  • DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0051
  • NAID: 130007587933
  • ISSN: 1881-2473, 1883-8030
  • Year and Date: 2019-02-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Differences of precursory seismic energy release for the 2007 effusive dome-forming and 2014 Plinian eruptions at Kelud volcano, Indonesia (2019)
  • Author(s): Nakamichi Haruhisa、Iguchi Masato、Triastuty Hetty、Hendrasto Muhamad、Mulyana Iyan
  • Journal Title: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research Volume: 382 Pages: 68-80
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.08.004
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] マグマ貫入速度による桜島火山における噴火事象分岐論理 (2019)
  • Author(s): 井口 正人、為栗 健、平林 順一、中道 治久
  • Journal Title: 火山 Volume: 64 Pages: 33-51
  • NAID: 130007676208
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 2015年8月15日桜島群発火山構造性地震の発生過程 (2021)
  • Author(s): 中道治久
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
• [Presentation] 機械学習を用いた桜島における火山性地震の分類 (2021)
  • Author(s): 永江航也・中道治久
  • Organizer: 日本火山学会2021年秋季大会
• [Presentation] 深部低周波地震の発生と火山深部のマグマ供給との関係について (2019)
  • Author(s): 中道治久
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
• [Book] 自然災害科学・防災の百科事典 (2022)
  • Author(s): 日本自然災害学会
  • Total Pages: 806
  • Publisher: 丸善出版
  • ISBN: 9784621306642
• [Book] 住まいの百科事典 (2021)
  • Author(s): 一般社団法人 日本家政学会 住居学部会
  • Total Pages: 742
  • Publisher: 丸善出版
  • ISBN: 9784621305812