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Estimation of stress accumulation distribution toward predicting large crustal earthquakes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K03809
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17040:Solid earth sciences-related
Research InstitutionJapan, Meteorological Research Institute (2020-2021)
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (2018-2019)

Principal Investigator

Noda Akemi  気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部, 研究官 (80793992)

Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Keywords地殻内地震 / 歪みエネルギー / GNSS / 2016年熊本地震 / 地震シナリオ / 地殻変動 / 内陸地震 / 非弾性歪み / 新潟-神戸変形集中帯 / 地殻内応力 / GNSS観測データ / 弾性・非弾性歪み / 地殻内応力蓄積 / 弾性・非弾性歪みの分離 / せん断歪みエネルギー / 西南日本
Outline of Final Research Achievements

To understand the mechanism of earthquake generation, it is important to know the state of stress accumulation in the Earth's crust. However, some challenges remain in achieving this goal. In this study, the elastic/inelastic strain analysis method, which is an important basic theory for estimating stress accumulation, was modified to improve the estimation accuracy. It was also shown that shear strain energy change is an effective parameter as an indicator of stress accumulation/release, and the shear strain energy change estimated from observation data is related to seismic activity.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地殻内地震の発生予測は,これまで活断層調査等に基づいた過去の地震発生履歴という経験的情報に依存してきたが,経験のない地震を予測することはできなかった.それに対し,地震発生の物理モデルが明らかになれば,それに基づいて未知の地震イベントを予測することが可能となる.本研究課題では,測地データや地震データという活断層とは全く独立の情報に基づく物理モデルによって地殻内地震の発生を理解することを目指して,観測データから応力蓄積を推定するための解析手法の改良,応力蓄積を表す新たな指標の提案を行った.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Energy‐based scenarios for great thrust‐type earthquakes in the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwest Japan, using an interseismic slip‐deficit model2021

    • Author(s)
      Noda Akemi、Saito Tatsuhiko、Fukuyama Eiichi、Urata Yumi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

      Volume: 126 Issue: 5

    • DOI

      10.1029/2020jb020417

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The 3‐D Spatial Distribution of Shear Strain Energy Changes Associated With the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Southwest Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Noda Akemi、Saito Tatsuhiko、Fukuyama Eiichi、Terakawa Toshiko、Tanaka Sachiko、Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 47 Issue: 3 Pages: 1-9

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019gl086369

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Shear Strain Energy Change Caused by the Interplate Coupling Along the Nankai Trough: An Integration Analysis Using Stress Tensor Inversion and Slip-Deficit Inversion2018

    • Author(s)
      Saito Tatsuhiko、Noda Akemi、Yoshida Keisuke、Tanaka Sachiko
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

      Volume: 123 Issue: 7 Pages: 5975-5986

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018jb015839

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Slip-Deficit Rate Distribution Along the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, With Elastic Lithosphere and Viscoelastic Asthenosphere2018

    • Author(s)
      Noda Akemi、Saito Tatsuhiko、Fukuyama Eiichi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

      Volume: 123 Issue: 9 Pages: 8125-8142

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018jb015515

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 測地データと地震データを併用した非弾性変形の解析:新潟神戸変形集中帯への適用2021

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美・齊藤竜彦
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Energy-based scenarios for megathrust earthquakes in the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwest Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Noda, A., and T. Saito
    • Organizer
      International Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Energy-based method to generate rupture scenarios for megathrust earthquakes in the Nankai Trough subduction zone, southwest Japan: A necessary Condition for earthquake generation2021

    • Author(s)
      Noda, A., T. Saito, E. Fukuyama, and Y. Urata
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Mechanics-based scenarios for great thrust earthquakes in subduction zones using GNSS data analysis: Released strain energy and dissipated energy2020

    • Author(s)
      Akemi Noda, Tatsuhiko Saito, Eiichi Fukuyama, and Yumi Urata
    • Organizer
      EGU General assembly 2020 Online
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 破壊力学に基づいた南海トラフプレート境界地震の発生シナリオ:地震発生の必要条件の検討2020

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美、齊藤竜彦、福山英一、浦田優美
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2016年熊本地震による地殻内せん断歪みエネルギー変化の定量評価:余震活動との関係2020

    • Author(s)
      野田 朱美、齊藤 竜彦、福山英一、寺川寿子、田中佐千子、松浦充宏
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2020年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 歪みエネルギーの蓄積・解放に基づく地殻内地震の発生メカニズムの解明2019

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Shear strain energy change and aftershock activity of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, southwest Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Akemi Noda, Tatsuhko Saito, Eiichi Fukuyama, Toshiko Terakawa, Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura
    • Organizer
      27th IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 測地データと物理モデルに基づいたプレート境界地震発生シナリオの構築2019

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美・齊藤竜彦・福山英一
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 弾性・非弾性歪み解析を用いた地殻内応力蓄積・解放の評価:2016年熊本地震への適用2018

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美・齊藤竜彦・福山英一・松浦 充宏
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 弾性・非弾性歪み解析を用いた地震間の応力蓄積・解放の推定:別府-島原地溝帯周辺域への適用2018

    • Author(s)
      野田朱美・齊藤竜彦 ・福山英一・寺川寿子・ 松浦充宏
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2018年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 剪断ひずみエネルギーと地震活動2018

    • Author(s)
      齊藤竜彦・野田朱美・吉田圭佑・田中佐千子
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2018年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A New Methodology for the Estimation of Crustal Stress from the Comparison of Coseismic Shear Strain Energy Change with Aftershock Activity2018

    • Author(s)
      Akemi Noda, Tatsuhiko Saito, Eiichi Fukuyama, Toshiko Terakawa, and Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura
    • Organizer
      10th ACES International Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Shear Strain Energy and Seismicity2018

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuhiko Saito, Akemi Noda, Keisuke Yoshida, and Sachiko Tanaka
    • Organizer
      10th ACES International Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimation of gradual stress changes before the 2016 Mw7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake2018

    • Author(s)
      Akemi Noda, Tatsuhiko Saito, Eiichi Fukuyama, Toshiko Terakawa, and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura
    • Organizer
      2018 AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Shear Strain Energy Change and Aftershock Patterns2018

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuhiko Saito, Akemi Noda, Keisuke Yoshida, and Sachiko Tanaka
    • Organizer
      2018 AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] 2016年熊本地震による地殻内エネルギーの増減を3次元的に推定

    • URL

      https://quaketm.bosai.go.jp/~noda/noda_etal_2020_GRL/

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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