| Project/Area Number |
18K04360
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
Tanaka Gaku 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 助教 (90333632)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
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| Keywords | 流出モデル / 確率応答 / 集中化 / 不確実性 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Using the storage function runoff model as a flood forecasting system, we proposed a differential equation that can theoretically estimate the stochastic characteristics of discharge with rainfall intensity, two model parameters, and initial discharge as known random variables, and showed its validity based on simulation methods. The results show that the variance of parameters related to watershed area affects the variance of discharge around the flood arrival time, and the variance of rainfall intensity affects the variance of discharge in proportion to its value. The stochastic properties of the runoff model obtained in this study, through comparison with the results of stochastic response analysis of the physical model, lead to the solution of problems related to the lumping process of the runoff model.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
河川整備が行き届かない地方では，財政，人材の課題から利便性を第一に洪水予測システムに流出現象を概念的に記述した集中型のモデルが組み込まれる傾向にある．この集中型のモデルには適用可能な流域面積やモデルパラメータの物理的意味付けなど，未解決の基礎的な問題が含まれている．本研究の成果として得られた貯留型流出モデル（集中型のモデル）の確率特性は，今後に実施予定の物理的なモデルの確率応答解析の結果との比較を通して，上記の問題解決を可能にするものと考えられる．
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