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Economic Impact of Seafarer Shortages in Coastal Shipping and Assessment of Mitigation Policy

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K04391
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

Ishiguro Kazuhiko  神戸大学, 海事科学研究科, 准教授 (60282034)

Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords内航海運 / 船員需給 / 船舶需給 / コーホート分析 / 産業連関分析 / 内航船員 / 応用一般均衡分析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study sequentially estimated (1) the number of seafarers shortage and the timing of the shortage, (2) the number of vessels that will be unable to operate due to the shortage, (3) the volume of cargo that will be unable to be transported due to the suspension of vessel operations, and (4) the economic losses that will occur due to the suspension of cargo transport. As a result, depending on the scenario, the number of seafarer shortages could be several hundred between 2025 and 2030. If effective countermeasures are not implemented, it is estimated that this could reduce Japan's GDP by several tens of billions of yen. The study indicates that recent efforts by the industry and the government have been effective in reducing the shortage of seafarers but are not yet sufficient to eliminate it.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により船員不足がもたらす経済的影響は,不足1人あたりおよそ1億円であり,これは事前の想定よりも大きいことが明らかとなった.また複数の将来シナリオに基づいた推計により将来予測される船員不足とその経済的影響が明らかとなった.様々検討されている船員不足解消策はいずれも費用対効果が大きいことが推察される結果を得た点に意義がある.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (9 results)

All 2022 2021 2019 2018

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results)

  • [Journal Article] 内航海運における船員不足とその経済的影響の推計2021

    • Author(s)
      安藤良彬,石黒一彦
    • Journal Title

      海運経済研究

      Volume: 55 Pages: 51-60

    • NAID

      40022801255

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Measuring the Efficiency of Automated Container Terminals in China and Korea2019

    • Author(s)
      Yunna Xu, Kazuhiko Ishiguro
    • Journal Title

      Asian Transport Studies

      Volume: 5 Issue: 4 Pages: 584-599

    • DOI

      10.11175/eastsats.5.584

    • NAID

      130007700465

    • ISSN
      2185-5560
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 内航海運における船員不足問題の経済的影響2018

    • Author(s)
      安藤良彬・石黒一彦
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集

      Volume: 57

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Efficiency Evaluation of Automated Container Terminal by DEA2018

    • Author(s)
      Kazuhiko Ishiguro, Yunna Xu, Ruoyu Hu
    • Journal Title

      土木計画学研究・講演集

      Volume: 57

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Impact of Northern Sea Route Expansion on Container Cargo Transportation and Trade between East Asia and Europe2022

    • Author(s)
      Ruixuan Yu, Kazuhiko Ishiguro
    • Organizer
      International Association of Maritime Economists
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Seafarer Shortage Problem in Coastal Shipping Industry and its Economic Impact in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kazuhiko Ishiguro
    • Organizer
      International Association of Maritime Economists
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Efficiency Evaluation of Automated Container Terminals in East Asia2019

    • Author(s)
      Kazuhiko Ishiguro
    • Organizer
      International Association of Maritime Economists, 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimation of Seafarer Shortage in Coastal Shipping and its Economic Impact in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiaki Ando
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Measuring the Efficiency of Automated Container Terminals in Japan and China2018

    • Author(s)
      Yunna Xu
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference on Transportation Logistics
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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