| Project/Area Number |
18K05730
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Review Section |
Basic Section 40010:Forest science-related
|
|---|
| Research Institution | University of Hyogo |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
FUJIKI Daisuke 兵庫県立大学, 自然・環境科学研究所, 准教授 (30435896)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | ツキノワグマ / 出没予測 / 堅果の豊凶 / 統計モデル / 長期モニタリング / 堅果の豊凶観測 / ブナ / コナラ / ミズナラ / 人里への出没 / 同調性 / 豊凶 / 長期観測データ / 広域スケール / 生息適地 / 堅果 / ニホンジカ / 下層植生衰退 |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In Japan, there is a need to develop methods for predicting frequent occurrences of Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) around residential areas in order to prevent human-bear conflicts. This study analyzed how three dominant Fagaceae species (Fagus crenata, Quercus crispula, and Q. serrata) affect bear occurrences during autumn, constructing statistical models based on monitoring data collected over 12 years in Hyogo Prefecture, western Japan. According to the constructed models in the scale of Hyogo Prefectural, the accuracy of the predictive model increased as the number of Fagaceae species included in the model increased. The model with all three Fagaceae species showed a much closer relationship between observed values and expected values in bear occurrence. In the municipal level, however, models widely differed among municipalities in their accuracy to predict bear occurrence, which was correlated with the proportion of F. crenata forests in each municipality.
|
| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
2004年のクマの全国的な大量出没以来、ブナ科堅果を豊凶観測することで秋季のクマの出没レベルを予測する取り組みが各都府県で進められてきた。本研究では、十数年にわたる長期モニタリング・データを統計モデリングすることで、ブナ科堅果の豊凶観測結果から秋季のクマの出没レベルを高い精度で定量的に予測できることを示した。さらに予測の精度を左右する条件についても明らかにすることができた。これらの成果は、秋季のクマの出没予測技術の確立のための重要な知見を提供したといえる。
|
