The development of water bloom prediction model for irrigation reservoirs

• Project/Area Number: 18K05893
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 41030:Rural environmental engineering and planning-related
• Research Institution: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
• Principal Investigator: YOSHINAGA Ikuo 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農村工学研究部門, 室長 (50414420)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 浜田 康治 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農村工学研究部門, 上級研究員 (00425521)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
• Keywords: アオコ / 生態系モデル / 逐次予測 / 栄養塩類 / 供給速度 / シアノバクテリア / モデリング

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A water bloom model, which can predict water bloom for irrigation reservoirs up to 2 days ahead, was developed. Water bloom, excess growth of cyanobacterium microcystis, anabaena and so on, is calculated by typical empirical model considering physical and chemical condition in water bodies and filtered by real-time observed data. The calculation processes are followings. 1.The model sequentially captures the weather forecast information from the website, calculates the inflow water volume, inflow nutrient load from the catchment area. 2.The model calculates storage water temperature considering heat and water balance of the reservoir.3. The model calculates water bloom by a Monod-type empirical model based on these values and filters by the recent observed values.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現場の農業用の閉鎖性水域を大きな実験系に見立てて、栄養塩の供給速度とアオコの増殖速度の関係に注目してモデル化を行う。藍藻類の一部は毒素を有することから、利水上の観点からはアオコの増殖は重大な関心事項であり、研究の社会的な意義は大きい。