• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Statistical inference for cancer incidence in prefectural level

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K10068
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
Research InstitutionSapporo Medical University

Principal Investigator

Kamo Kenichi  札幌医科大学, 医療人育成センター, 准教授 (10404740)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 福井 敬祐  大阪医科薬科大学, 研究支援センター, 助教 (50760922)
伊藤 ゆり  大阪医科薬科大学, 研究支援センター, 准教授 (60585305)
伊森 晋平  広島大学, 先進理工系科学研究科(理), 准教授 (80747345)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywordsがん罹患 / 地域がん登録、全国がん登録 / 数理モデル / ベイズ型アプローチ / 時系列解析 / がん登録 / 遅れ補正 / 区間推定 / 罹患数 / 完全性 / 登録の完全性 / ベイズ法 / 信用区間 / 罹患 / 統計学的推論 / 混合効果モデル / ベイズ推定
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The research theme, "Statistical Evaluation of Cancer Incidence on a Prefectural Level," aimed to solve problems with cancer information aggregated on a prefectural level from an actuarial perspective. The following two types of results were conducted.
(1) Confidence interval estimation: The number of cancer incidence aggregated and reported in the prefectural level includes uncertainties such as omissions. In order to evaluate the reliability of the reported incidence counts, we proposed a statistical model to construct a confidence interval using a hierarchical Bayesian approach.
(2) Delay Adjustment on incidence report: We focused on the registration delay that occurs when attempting to timely report. We estimated the true number of incidence by constructing a model that expresses the longitudinal mechanism of the reporting delay.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

がん生存率の向上は、がん罹患によるトレンド把握の社会的意義をもたらした。都道府県や国レベルのがん罹患情報は地域がん登録や全国がん登録により把握され報告されているが、そのデータには不確定要素が含まれることが知られている。本研究の成果である、都道府県規模でのがん罹患数の信頼区間構築は、点推定である罹患報告に対する信頼度を図る指標として活用することが期待される。また、即時的な報告を目指した故に発生する遅れ報告についても、その発生メカニズムを数理的に表現することにより、真の罹患数に近い数値を得る事が可能となる。本研究は、がん罹患数に対する考察や解釈に寄与する情報を提供するという意義を有するものである。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (39 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (23 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Peer Reviewed: 21 results,  Open Access: 17 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Invited: 9 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Persistence of Mental Health Deterioration Among People Living Alone During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Periodically-repeated Longitudinal Study2022

    • Author(s)
      Kikuchi Hiroyuki、Machida Masaki、Nakamura Itaru、Saito Reiko、Odagiri Yuko、Fukushima Noritoshi、Takamiya Tomoko、Amagasa Shiho、Fukui Keisuke、Kojima Takako、Watanabe Hidehiro、Inoue Shigeru
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 32 Issue: 7 Pages: 345-353

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20210397

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2022-07-05
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] What Has Happened Since the Implementation of the Clinical Trials Act? Epidemiologists Need to Know2022

    • Author(s)
      Ito Yuri、Yamamoto Seiichiro、Nakamura Kenichi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 32 Issue: 1 Pages: 2-3

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20210425

    • NAID

      130008139680

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2022-01-05
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 都道府県別にみるがん年齢調整死亡率の推移予測ツールの開発2022

    • Author(s)
      福井敬祐・伊藤ゆり・片野田耕太
    • Journal Title

      厚生の指標

      Volume: 69 Pages: 1-6

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Updated Trends in Cancer in Japan: Incidence in 1985–2015 and Mortality in 1958–2018—A Sign of Decrease in Cancer Incidence2021

    • Author(s)
      Katanoda Kota、Hori Megumi、Saito Eiko、Shibata Akiko、Ito Yuri、Minami Tetsuji、Ikeda Sayaka、Suzuki Tatsuya、Matsuda Tomohiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 31 Issue: 7 Pages: 426-450

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20200416

    • NAID

      130008062416

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2021-07-05
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Determinant Factors on Differences in Survival for Gastric Cancer Between the United States and Japan Using Nationwide Databases2021

    • Author(s)
      Ito Yuri、Miyashiro Isao、Ishikawa Takashi、Akazawa Kohei、Fukui Keisuke、Katai Hitoshi、Nunobe Souya、Oda Ichiro、Isobe Yoh、Tsujitani Shunichi、Ono Hiroyuki、Tanabe Satoshi、Fukagawa Takeo、Suzuki Satoshi、Kakeji Yoshihiro、Sasako Mitsuru、Bilchik Anton、Fujita Manabu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 31 Issue: 4 Pages: 241-248

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20190351

    • NAID

      130008021553

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • URL

      https://pure.teikyo.jp/en/publications/57565b33-10fd-442b-8f99-da249550f034

    • Year and Date
      2021-04-05
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Excess Mortality From Suicide During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic Period in Japan: A Time-Series Modeling Before the Pandemic2021

    • Author(s)
      Anzai Tatsuhiko、Fukui Keisuke、Ito Tsubasa、Ito Yuri、Takahashi Kunihiko
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 31 Issue: 2 Pages: 152-156

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20200443

    • NAID

      130007981127

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2021-02-05
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Microsimulation model for evaluating the effect of cancer control program: example for colorectal cancer2021

    • Author(s)
      Kamo Ken-ichi、Fukui Keisuke、Sakamoto Wataru、Ito Yuri
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Biometrics

      Volume: 41 Issue: 2 Pages: 93-115

    • DOI

      10.5691/jjb.41.93

    • NAID

      130008036920

    • ISSN
      0918-4430, 2185-6494
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] How much can screening reduce colorectal cancer mortality in Japan? Scenario-based estimation by microsimulation2021

    • Author(s)
      Kamo Ken-Ichi、Fukui Keisuke、Ito Yuri、Nakayama Tomio、Katanoda Kota
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology

      Volume: 52 Issue: 3 Pages: 221-226

    • DOI

      10.1093/jjco/hyab195

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] International comparison of trends in cancer mortality: Japan has fallen behind in screening-related cancers2021

    • Author(s)
      Katanoda Kota、Ito Yuri、Sobue Tomotaka
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology

      Volume: 51 Issue: 11 Pages: 1680-1686

    • DOI

      10.1093/jjco/hyab139

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] がん対策立案・評価における意思決定に寄与するマイクロシミュレーションの構築:大腸がんを事例に2021

    • Author(s)
      加茂憲一,福井敬祐,坂本亘,伊藤ゆり
    • Journal Title

      計量生物学

      Volume: 41(2) Pages: 93-115

    • NAID

      130008036920

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 臨床経験 たばこと子宮頸がんの密接な関連2020

    • Author(s)
      榊原 敦子、中山 健夫、上田 豊、伊藤 ゆり、内田 博之、小田切 陽一、片山 俊郎、樋口 壽宏、小西 郁生
    • Journal Title

      産婦人科の実際

      Volume: 69 Issue: 4 Pages: 411-418

    • DOI

      10.18888/sp.0000001249

    • ISSN
      0558-4728
    • Year and Date
      2020-04-01
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Rare cancers are not rare in Asia as well: The rare cancer burden in East Asia2020

    • Author(s)
      Matsuda Tomohiro、Won Young-Joo、Chun-ju Chiang RuRu、Lim Jiwon、Saika Kumiko、Fukui Keisuke、Lee Wen-Chung、Botta Laura、Bernasconi Alice、Trama Annalisa
    • Journal Title

      Cancer Epidemiology

      Volume: 67 Pages: 101702-101702

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.canep.2020.101702

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Long‐term outcomes after endoscopic submucosal dissection for differentiated‐type early gastric cancer that fulfilled expanded indication criteria: A prospective cohort study2020

    • Author(s)
      Shichijo S、Uedo N、Kanesaka T、Ohta T、Nakagawa K、Shimamoto Y、Ohmori M、Arao M、Iwatsubo T、Suzuki S、Matsuno K、Iwagami H、Inoue S、Matsuura N、Maekawa A、Nakahira H、Yamamoto S、Takeuchi Y、Higashino K、Ishihara R、Fukui Keisuke、Ito Yuri他
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology

      Volume: 36 Issue: 3 Pages: 664-670

    • DOI

      10.1111/jgh.15182

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Long‐term trends in sex difference in bladder cancer survival 1975‐2009: A population‐based study in Osaka, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Aoe Jo、Ito Yuri、Fukui Keisuke、Nakayama Masashi、Morishima Toshitaka、Miyashiro Isao、Sobue Tomotaka、Nakayama Tomio
    • Journal Title

      Cancer Medicine

      Volume: 9 Issue: 19 Pages: 7330-7340

    • DOI

      10.1002/cam4.3382

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Risk of Cancer in Association with Ranitidine and Nizatidine vs Other H2 Blockers: Analysis of the Japan Medical Data Center Claims Database 2005?20182020

    • Author(s)
      Iwagami Masao、Kumazawa Ryosuke、Miyamoto Yoshihisa、Ito Yuri、Ishimaru Miho、Morita Kojiro、Hamada Shota、Tamiya Nanako、Yasunaga Hideo
    • Journal Title

      Drug Safety

      Volume: 44 Issue: 3 Pages: 361-371

    • DOI

      10.1007/s40264-020-01024-0

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Trends in Small-Cell Lung Cancer Survival in 1993–2006 Based on Population-Based Cancer Registry Data in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Oze I, Ito H, Nishino Y, Hattori M, Nakayama T, Miyashiro I, Matsuo K, Ito Y.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 29 Issue: 9 Pages: 347-353

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20180112

    • NAID

      130007703030

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2019-09-05
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Comorbidities on Survival in Gastric, Colorectal, and Lung Cancer Patients2019

    • Author(s)
      Morishima T, Matsumoto Y, Koeda N, Shimada H, Maruhama T, Matsuki D, Nakata K, Ito Y, Tabuchi T, Miyashiro I
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 29 Issue: 3 Pages: 110-115

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20170241

    • NAID

      130007607642

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2019-03-05
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Statistical inference for estimating the incidence of cancer at the prefectural level in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Tanabe, R., Kamo, K., Fukui, K., Imori, S.
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology

      Volume: 49 Issue: 5 Pages: 481-485

    • DOI

      10.1093/jjco/hyz033

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Does cold snare polypectomy completely resect the mucosal layer? A prospective single‐center observational trial2019

    • Author(s)
      Shichijo S、Takeuchi Y、Kitamura M、Kono M、Shimamoto Y、Fukuda H、Nakagawa K、Ohmori M、Arao M、Iwatsubo T、Iwagami H、Matsuno K、Inoue S、Matsuura N、Nakahira H、Maekawa A、Kanesaka T、Higashino K、Uedo N、Fukui K、Ito Y, et. al.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology

      Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Pages: 241-248

    • DOI

      10.1111/jgh.14824

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Epidemiological and clinical analyses of cervical cancer using data from the population-based Osaka cancer registry2019

    • Author(s)
      Yagi A, Ueda Y, Kakuda M, Tanaka Y, Ikeda S, Matsuzaki S, Kobayashi E, Morishima T, Miyashiro I, Fukui K, Ito Y, Nakayama T, Kimura T
    • Journal Title

      Cancer Research

      Volume: 79 Issue: 6 Pages: 1252-1259

    • DOI

      10.1158/0008-5472.can-18-3109

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Trends in incidence and long-term survival of Japanese women with vulvar cancer: a population-based analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Tanaka Yusuke、Ueda Yutaka、Kakuda Mamoru、Yagi Asami、Okazawa Akiko、Egawa-Takata Tomomi、Matsuzaki Shinya、Kobayashi Eiji、Yoshino Kiyoshi、Fukui Keisuke、Ito Yuri、Nakayama Tomio、Kimura Tadashi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Clinical Oncology

      Volume: 24 Issue: 9 Pages: 1137-1142

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10147-019-01453-7

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact of sex difference on survival of bladder cancer: A population‐based registry data in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama Masashi、Ito Yuri、Hatano Koji、Nakai Yasutomo、Kakimoto Ken‐ichi、Miyashiro Isao、Nishimura Kazuo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Urology

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 6 Pages: 649-654

    • DOI

      10.1111/iju.13955

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Age on Long-Term Survival in Patients with Esophageal Cancer Who Underwent Transthoracic Esophagectomy2019

    • Author(s)
      Motoori Masaaki、Ito Yuri、Miyashiro Isao、Sugimura Keijiro、Miyata Hiroshi、Omori Takeshi、Fujiwara Yoshiyuki、Yano Masahiko
    • Journal Title

      Oncology

      Volume: 97 Issue: 3 Pages: 149-154

    • DOI

      10.1159/000500604

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] がん対策へ活用するマイクロシミュレーションとわが国の研究状況2023

    • Author(s)
      福井敬祐
    • Organizer
      ヘルスケアのOR研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 大腸がん検診がもたらす効果のマイクロシミュレーションによる評価2021

    • Author(s)
      加茂憲一
    • Organizer
      がん予防学術大会2021東京
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] マイクロシミュレーションを用いた大腸がんに対する介入効果の評価(医薬特別セッション「がん対策におけるマイクロシミュレーションモデルの活用」)2021

    • Author(s)
      加茂憲一
    • Organizer
      日本計算機統計学会第35回大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年度がん診療連携拠点病院の現況報告からみたストラクチャ指標とプロセス指標の評価2021

    • Author(s)
      太田将仁, 伊藤ゆり, 東尚弘
    • Organizer
      第31回日本疫学会学術総会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 既存統計資料を用いた健康格差モニタリング~がんを事例に~2021

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Y.
    • Organizer
      第61回日本社会医学会総会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A Fast Optimization Method for Additive Model via Partial Generalized Ridge Regression2020

    • Author(s)
      Keisuke Fukui, Mineaki Ohishi, Mariko Yamamura, Hirokazu Yanagihara
    • Organizer
      The 12th KES International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Geographical Disparities in the Reduction of Cancer Mortality and the Early Detection of Cancer by Prefecture in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Y., K. Fukui, K. Katanoda, T. Higashi, and et al
    • Organizer
      The 79th Annual Meeting of Japanese Cancer Association 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Geographical socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality using vital statistics in Japan: 1995-20142020

    • Author(s)
      Ito Y, Fukui K, Nakaya T.
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Health Policy Statistics
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evidence-based Cancer Control Policy: descriptive epidemiology and beyond2019

    • Author(s)
      Ito Y.
    • Organizer
      The 78th Annual Meeting of Japanese Cancer Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 国内外の子宮頸がんの罹患・死亡の現状:検診・ワクチン・格差の視点から2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤ゆり
    • Organizer
      第78回日本公衆衛生学会総会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] パートナーシップでつくるがん統計情報の社会還元2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤ゆり
    • Organizer
      がん患者学会2019. J-CIPセミナー
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Permutation tests to compare net survival functions using cancer registry data2019

    • Author(s)
      Ito Y, Fukui K, Komukai S, Gosho M.
    • Organizer
      The 40th Annual Conference of International Society for Clinical Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality using population-based data in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Ito Y.
    • Organizer
      The 3rd Pacific Rim Cancer Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] がん登録でどんな研究ができますか?~過去・現在・未来~2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤ゆり.
    • Organizer
      日本がん登録協議会 第28回学術集会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 全国がん罹患数推定値における登録率の推定2018

    • Author(s)
      加茂憲一
    • Organizer
      日本がん登録協議会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Book] The Atlas of Health Inequalities in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Nakaya T. and Ito Y.
    • Total Pages
      343
    • Publisher
      eds. Springer Nature Switzerland
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2024-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi