Bayesian theory-based preventive prediction for Sudden Unexpected Infant Death
| Project/Area Number |
18K10124
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 58040:Forensics medicine-related
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| Research Institution | Mie University (2020)
Kyoto University (2018-2019) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
玉木 敬二 京都大学, 医学研究科, 教授 (90217175)
宮尾 昌 京都大学, 医学研究科, 講師 (90711466)
真鍋 翔 京都大学, 医学研究科, 教務補佐員 (00794661)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
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| Keywords | 乳児突然死 / 予防法の確立 / 診断補助モデル / 発症予測モデル / ベイジアンネットワーク / 乳幼児突然死 / ベイズ理論 / 疾患発症予測モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Sudden infant death syndrome is the most common cause of non-neonatal infant death. However, the diagnosis is difficult and the onset cannot be predicted at an early stage. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to construct a diagnostic assistance model and risk prediction model for sudden infant death. First, a tentative model was constructed by inputting data of infant autopsy cases at our institution and various statistical control groups into the model construction support software, and then modified from a professional point of view. The accuracy was verified in yet another new case group. As a result, the model for assisting the diagnosis of sudden infant death showed the same diagnosis as the specialist diagnosis in 70% of the cases as the most probable diagnosis. The risk prediction model reproduced values close to the onset risk shown in previous epidemiological studies. In the future, we plan to carry out prospective research for practical use.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
乳幼児突然死症候群はうつぶせ寝・養育者喫煙・人工乳栄養等が危険因子となり、脳幹部に障害が生じ本来は覚醒すべきときに覚醒できないことが主な病態と分かってきた。しかし、未だに世界的に新生児以外の乳児死亡原因で最も多い疾患である。また、診断が難しく国内及び国際比較では地域毎に診断が異なっている。そのため診断の差異改善に診断標準化に資するモデル、発症防止に早期発症予測モデルの開発が必要である。
本研究では各症例のリスク要因を開発したモデルに入力することで診断や発症予測が可能であることを示した。また症例数の少ない疾患でもモデル開発可能なことを示しており希少例でのモデル開発法を示したことにも意義がある。
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(18 results)
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[Journal Article] Circumstances and factors of sleep-related sudden infancy deaths in Japan2020
Author(s)
Motoki Osawa, Yasuhiro Ueno, Noriaki Ikeda, Kazuya Ikematsu, Takuma Yamamoto, Wataru Irie, Shuji Kozawa, Hirokazu Kotani, Hideki Hamayasu, Takehiko Murase, Keita Shingu, Marie Sugimoto, Ryoko Nagao, Yu Kakimoto
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Journal Title
PLOS ONE
Volume: 15
Issue: 8
Pages: e0233253-e0233253
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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