Understanding the mechanism of unexpected technological trajectories: from the perspective of problem-solving process

• Project/Area Number: 18K12850
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07080:Business administration-related
• Research Institution: Seijo University
• Principal Investigator: Kubota Tatsuya 成城大学, 社会イノベーション学部, 准教授 (20634116)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
• Keywords: 技術軌道 / 研究開発者 / 問題解決プロセス / 認知フレーム / 技術開発 / 技術発展 / 露光装置 / イノベーション / 認知 / 技術の延命 / 技術予測 / 予想外の技術発展 / 半導体製造業界

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Some technologies develop unexpectedly, deviating from the technological development trajectory predicted by industry experts. This study aimed to clarify the reasons for these unexpected technological developments, focusing on the behavior of R&D personnel. We showed why technologies achieve unexpected performance gains and why it was difficult for experts to predict their trajectories. From the case study of optical lithography, which had experienced unexpected developments, we clarified that the cognitive frame that R&D personnel has caused R&D personnel to underestimate promising technologies. It makes investing resources in promising technologies difficult, making the technology trajectory unpredictable.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

予想外の性能伸長を対象に分析を行った研究はこれまでいくつか存在したものの、研究開発者の活動や技術に対する認知という側面からこの現象にアプローチした研究はほとんど存在しなかった。イノベーションの基礎となる技術軌道の問題を既存研究と異なる観点から説明したことには一定の学術的な意義があるといえる。また、本研究の知見を含めることで、技術が変化するタイミングをより正確に予測することが期待できる点や、研究開発マネジメントで留意すべき点を導き出せたことは実践的意義があるといえる。

Research Products

• [Presentation] The Role of Cognitive Frames that Impede and Drive the Technological Evolution (2022)
  • Author(s): Yaichi Aoshima, Tatsuya Kubota
  • Organizer: PICMET (Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology) '22 Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 認知ギャップと技術軌道：光露光方式の予想外の延命を対象とした分析 (2022)
  • Author(s): 久保田達也
  • Organizer: IIRサマースクール 2022
  • Invited
• [Presentation] The role of cognitive frames that impede and drive the technological evolution (2022)
  • Author(s): Yaichi Aoshima, Tatsuya Kubota
  • Organizer: PICMET (Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology) '22
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Expanding the Limits of Problem-solving: How has the life of optical lithography technology been repeatedly extended? (2019)
  • Author(s): Tatsuya Kubota and Yaichi Aoshima
  • Organizer: Asia Pacific Innovation Conference 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Expanding the Limits of Problem-solving (2019)
  • Author(s): Tatsuya Kubota and Yaichi Aoshima
  • Organizer: Open Innovation Seminar
  • Int'l Joint Research