| Project/Area Number |
18K13837
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | 洪水リスク評価 / 三大都市圏 / 荒川流域 / 庄内川流域 / 淀川流域 / 気候変動 / 全球気候モデル / d4PDF / 分布型降雨流出モデル / 同時氾濫確率 / 同時被災リスク / リスクカーブ / コピュラ関数 / 内外水氾濫 / 同時洪水リスク / 確率豪雨発生モデル / 内外水氾濫一体型モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In recent years, Japan has experienced devastating flooding almost every year, which will further increase in a changing climate. This project developed a flood-inundation-damage model in three river basins Ara, Shonai and Yodo River basins having a mega city of Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka, respectively. In particular, the model for the Yodo River basin with the large basin size considered dependence between heavy rainfall and its spatial distribution; the one for the Shonai River basin with lowland prone to high pluvial flood risk considered sewage pipe flow and its overflow. The developed system would be beneficial for extreme flood risk assessment including climate change conditions.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
今後，南海トラフと同様に大型台風による複数都市の氾濫リスク評価へのニーズがさらに高まることが予想される．本研究で構築したモデルは，最新の気候変動予測データを活用して大都市圏の洪水氾濫リスクを評価する手法として活用が期待される．大都市圏の洪水氾濫リスクモデルは，従来の河川整備による治水だけでなく自然災害保険を含めたリスクファイナンスによる洪水リスク管理に向けた基礎資料を提供することが期待できる．
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