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Development of cloud radar assimilation methods for local heavy rain prediction

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K13841
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

Principal Investigator

Kato Ryohei  国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究部門, 主任研究員 (70811868)

Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords雲レーダー / データ同化 / 数値予測 / 局地的大雨 / ナウキャスト
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to improve the accuracy of very- short-range numerical forecasts for local heavy rain by developing an assimilation method of cloud radar that can capture cloud droplets before raindrops form. By assimilating cloud radar data from special observations that succeeded in capturing cumulonimbus clouds that caused local heavy rain at a very high frequency of every minute, using a method called nudging, and improving the initial value of a numerical weather prediction model, we succeeded in predicting local heavy rain from the stage before rainfall started, which has been difficult with conventional extrapolation-based nowcasting.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

「ゲリラ豪雨」とも呼ばれる局地的大雨は、河川の急な増水や道路の浸水などを通じて時には人的被害をも引き起こすため、その予測手法の開発は重要な研究課題である。本研究は、雲レーダー同化により雨が降る前の段階から局地的大雨の予測に成功した世界で初めての研究だといえる。本手法を実用化に向けて高度化し、予測情報を危険な場所にいる方々にいち早く伝えることで、「ゲリラ豪雨」による被害が軽減されることが期待される。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2019 2018

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Assimilation impact of high‐temporal‐resolution volume scans on quantitative precipitation forecasts in a severe storm: Evidence from nudging data assimilation experiments with a thermodynamic retrieval method2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Shimizu, K. Iwanami and R. Kato, N. Sakurai, T. Maesaka, K. Kieda, Y. Shusse, S. Suzuki
    • Journal Title

      Quartery Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

      Volume: 13 Issue: 722 Pages: 2139-2160

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3548

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assimilation impact of cloud radars on quantitative precipitation forecast for localized heavy rainfall: Evidence from water vapor nudging data assimilation experiments2019

    • Author(s)
      Kato, R., S. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Maesaka, K. Iwanami
    • Organizer
      39th International Conference on Radar Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 局地的大雨予測に対する雲レーダー同化インパクト: 水蒸気ナッジングデータ同化実験2019

    • Author(s)
      加藤亮平・清水慎吾・大東忠保・前坂剛・岩波越
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 局地的大雨予測に対する雲レーダー同化インパクト: 水蒸気ナッジングデータ同化実験2019

    • Author(s)
      加藤亮平・清水慎吾・大東忠保・前坂剛・岩波越
    • Organizer
      第6回メソ気象セミナー
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Nowcast for Meso-γ-Scale, Localized, Extremely Heavy Rainfall by Blending Extrapolation and Model Forecasts2018

    • Author(s)
      Kato, R., S. Shimizu, K. Shimose, K. Iwanami
    • Organizer
      Joint Seminar between NIED and WRC/KMA
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Nowcast for Meso-γ-Scale, Localized, Extremely Heavy Rainfall by Blending Extrapolation and Model Forecasts: Event on 24 August 20162018

    • Author(s)
      Kato, R., S. Shimizu, K. Shimose, K. Iwanami
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 局地的大雨に対するナウキャストと数値予測を併合させたブレンディング予測.―2016年8月24日事例―2018

    • Author(s)
      加藤亮平, 清水慎吾, 下瀬健一, 岩波越
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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