Long-term implications of autonomous vehicles: understanding travel demand impacts and implications for transportation planning in Japan

• Project/Area Number: 18K13854
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 22050:Civil engineering plan and transportation engineering-related
• Research Institution: Japan Transport and Tourism Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Abe Ryosuke 一般財団法人運輸総合研究所(学術研究チーム), その他部局等, 研究員 (80817487)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
• Keywords: 自動運転 / モビリティサービス / 交通計画 / 公共交通 / 都市交通 / 自動運転車 / 交通行動 / 交通政策 / 鉄道 / 交通システム / 交通需要

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to understand the impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on travel behavior and demand, and to obtain suggestions for transportation planning in Japan. In particular, it focused on the impacts of AVs on public transportation. Specifically, regarding the introduction of AVs in the field of buses and taxis, this study quantified the expected benefit, summarized the issues for realization, and analyzed user perception of the monitoring method and safety. Furthermore, as an application of AVs, it analyzed user preferences for last-mile AV services to rail stations, as well as their impacts on accessibility and rail demand in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は，自動運転車が公共交通分野に与える影響について，サービス提供面と利用者面からの分析や都市交通への広域的な影響の分析を含め，一連の分析を行った．自動運転車の活用に関連した研究は世界的に増え続けている中，自動運転車の公共交通分野への示唆に焦点をあてた議論はまだ少ない．本研究の実務面への貢献として，自動運転サービスに対する利用者ニーズの理解や需要推計手法の開発に資する研究であること，また，自動運転サービスの活用方策の検討に資する研究であることなどが挙げられる．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Preferences of urban rail users for first- and last-mile autonomous vehicles: Price and service elasticities of demand in a multimodal environment (2021)
  • Author(s): Abe Ryosuke
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies Volume: 126 Pages: 103105-103105
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2021.103105
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide (2020)
  • Author(s): Becker Henrik、Becker Felix、Abe Ryosuke、…、Axhausen Kay W.
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Volume: 138 Pages: 105-126
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.04.021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An Experimental Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Monitoring Methods on Use Intentions for Autonomous Vehicle Services: Survey Evidence from Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Abe Ryosuke、Kita Yusuke、Fukuda Daisuke
  • Journal Title: Sustainability Volume: 12 Issue: 6 Pages: 2157-2157
  • DOI: 10.3390/su12062157
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Introducing autonomous buses and taxis: Quantifying the potential benefits in Japanese transportation systems (2019)
  • Author(s): Abe Ryosuke
  • Journal Title: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Volume: 126 Pages: 94-113
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.003
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] User Preferences for First- and Last-Mile Autonomous Vehicle Services: A Case Study in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2020)
  • Author(s): Abe Ryosuke
  • Organizer: Automated Vehicles Symposium 2020
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 名古屋市における自動運転タクシーサービスの需要量に関する均衡分析 (2020)
  • Author(s): 森賢太郎、三好壱晟、安部遼祐、三輪富生、森川高行
  • Organizer: 第62回土木計画学研究発表会・秋大会
  • Int'l Joint Research