| Project/Area Number |
18K14533
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 41010:Agricultural and food economics-related
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| Research Institution | Setsunan University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥60,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥60,000)
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| Keywords | 食料自給率 / 価格伝達 / 穀物 / 応用一般均衡モデル / 時系列モデル / パネルデータ分析 / 自給率 / 食料価格 / GARCH / DCC / 食料安全保障 / 一般均衡モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A number of countries, particularly net food importers, expressed interests in food self-sufficiency policy. Although self-sufficiency has been discussed for a long period of time, few studies analysed the effectiveness of the measure using quantitative models. We examined how self-sufficiency in cereals could contribute to the stabilisation of local markets with computable general equilibrium and econometric (time-series and panel) models.
The research found that high self-sufficiency in grain could mitigate the volatility transmissions of grain prices between international and regional markets. In addition, we uncovered that substitutive consumptions of local people between grain goods are likely to alleviate effects from foreign markets. In addition, it is found that domestic markets of agricultural products could be more volatile with autarky measure if yield volatility in the region is greater than those in exporting countries.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の結果により、食料自給率の向上は国際市場からの影響を弱めることが明らかになり、食料輸入国の政策として安定を求める場合に自給率向上政策が役立つ可能性を示した。このような自給率の効果を検証する数量的研究は非常に稀であり、学術的にも貢献した。
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