| Project/Area Number |
18K19683
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 58:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
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| Research Institution | Hiroshima University |
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Principal Investigator |
Tanaka Junko 広島大学, 医系科学研究科(医), 教授 (70155266)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
秋田 智之 広島大学, 医系科学研究科(医), 助教 (80609925)
杉山 文 広島大学, 医系科学研究科(医), 助教 (50778280)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-06-29 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
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| Keywords | 献血推進 / マルコフモデル / 将来推計 / 需要と供給 / 献血行動 / 血液事業 / 献血 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We conducted the Markov simulation study to predict the cumulative total blood donors in future based on data of all blood donors during 2016-2017(total4,788,243blood donors in 2016, and 4,728,837 blood donors in 2017: Japan Red Cross). Blood donors were categorized into seven groups. Area- sex- and age-specific transition probabilities were estimated. Based on Markov property, number of blood donors during 2016-2031 were estimated, and cumulative total number of blood donors were estimated using area-, sex- and age-specific average times of blood donations in 2016.
The total number of blood donors has been declining slightly since 4,954,308 in 2016 and was estimated to be 4,366,612 in 2027 and 4,171,709 in 2031. It is estimated that Both numbers of cumulative total blood donors in males and females will decrease. By age group. it will decrease in the 10-40s, and increase in the 60s. As for the 50s, it was estimated increasing before 2026, and started to decrease since then.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の結果、のべ献血者数は2016年4,954,308人から毎年微減傾向が続き2027年に推定4,366,612人、2031年に推定4,171,709人と推定され、また、性別、年代別の献血行動や献血本数の検討も行っていることから、血液事業や献血推進のための基礎的資料として活用可能であると考えらえた。また、本研究のマルコフモデルに基づく延べ献血者数の将来推計方法は、献血行動とその推移をモデル化していることから、献血行動推移確率の値を変更することにより、献血本数の目標設定や政策評価シミュレーションに用いることが可能である有用な方法であると考えられた。
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