| Project/Area Number |
18KK0348
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (A))
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Research Field |
Economic policy
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Keio University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
Kiyota Kozo 慶應義塾大学, 産業研究所(三田), 教授 (10306863)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2019 – 2021
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥14,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,270,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 構造グラビティ・モデル / 中間財 / 最終財 / 通商摩擦 / 国際貿易 / グラビティ・モデル / 構造グラビティモデル |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Is the gravity model as applicable to trade in intermediate inputs as it is to trade in final goods? One of the contributions of this project is that we explicitly account for the dual nature of products that can be used as either intermediate inputs or final goods. We find that the structural gravity model performs extremely well for describing bilateral trade in final goods and in intermediate inputs. However, the gravity model may perform poorly due to model misspecification (i.e., exclusion of intranational trade) and/or sample selection, even after the model considers the dual nature of products. We demonstrate that the poor performance of the gravity model is not attributable to the large trade flow of intermediate inputs, which supports the continued use of the model as these trade flows continue to grow in importance worldwide.
|
| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
近年，最終財の貿易だけでなく中間財の貿易も拡大していることを踏まえると，最終財の貿易のみを前提とした経済モデルでは，国際貿易の要因や影響を見誤ってしまう可能性がある．例えば，Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013)は中国からの輸入の拡大が国内雇用にマイナスの影響を及ぼすと主張している．しかし，中国からの中間財の輸入の拡大はむしろ最終財を生産する国内企業にとってはプラスとなる．このため，最終財と中間財の違いを考慮しなければ，中国からの輸入の影響を誤解してしまう可能性がある．最終財と中間財の違いに注目した本研究は，貿易の要因や影響を理解していく上で意義があると考えられる．
|
