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Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in the ex-Yugoslav Countries: Quantitative Text Analysis and Opinion Poll

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18KK0350
Research Category

Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (A))

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Politics
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Kubo Keiichi  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (30366976)

Project Period (FY) 2019 – 2023
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥15,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,570,000)
Keywords戦争犯罪裁判 / 戦犯裁判 / マスメディア / 世論 / セルビア / コソヴォ / ボスニア / 戦争犯罪 / メディア / 国際刑事裁判所 / 裁判 / 移行期正義 / 計量テキスト分析 / 旧ユーゴスラビア / 世論調査 / 新聞記事 / 戦争責任 / 国際刑事裁判 / フレーミング / 紛争後平和構築 / テキスト分析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research attempted to analyze the discourse in domestic mass media and the perception of citizens (and changes thereof) on the issue of transitional justice in the former Yugoslavia, using two innovative research methods. The quantitative text analysis using the corpus of more than 310,000 newspaper articles in Serbia demonstrates that the ideological orientations of newspaper outlets and ruling parties affect the tone of reporting on this issue, and that the tone of reporting tends to be more nationalistic before the national elections or after the detainment of the Serb indictees. The survey experiment using the online sample from Serbia (N = 1,000) demonstrates that those who are primed with questions on the activities of Kosovo Specialist Chambers tend to evaluate the war crimes trials in general more positively, possibly because they reduce the sense of distrust or unfairness vis-a-vis international war crimes trials among the Serbian citizens.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

旧ユーゴ地域における戦争犯罪行為に対する移行期正義の取り組みについてはこれまでの多くの研究がなされてきたが、体系的なデータに基づく研究は少なかった。本研究は、このテーマについてこれまで国際的に見ても先行研究で適用されてこなかった計量テキスト分析やサーベイ実験の手法を用いて、裁判の実施やそのための被告人の拘束といった政府の対応が国内メディアの報道トーンや市民の認識にどのような影響を与えたかを明らかにすることができ、大きな学術的意義があったと考える。また、各国政府や国際社会の政策、取り組みの影響に関する知見には重要な政策的含意があり、本研究の成果は社会的意義も大きいと考える。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (17 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (5 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University VITEZ(ボスニア・ヘルツェゴビナ)2023

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] National Chengchi University (台湾・国立政治大学)(その他の国・地域)2021

    • Year and Date
      2021-03-05
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] War Crimes Trials Database: A New Datanase on the War Crimes Trials in Bosnia and Herzegovina2022

    • Author(s)
      Goran Simic and Keiichi Kubo
    • Journal Title

      Zbornik Radova Pravnog Fakulteta

      Volume: 8 Pages: 126-135

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Long Term Evolution with Short Term Fluctuations: Changing Russian Propaganda against Ukraine2023

    • Author(s)
      Masatomo Torikai, Tomoki Kaneko, Masaaki Higashijima, and Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      International Political Science Association (IPSA), 27th IPSA World Congress
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] "Conflict Dynamics and Domestic Politics: Media Coverage of the Mindanao Conflict in the Philippines"2022

    • Author(s)
      Aya Watanabe, Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      2022年度日本比較政治学会第25回研究大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] "How has Russian State Propaganda Developed?"2022

    • Author(s)
      Masatomo Torikai, Tomoki Kaneko, Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      54th Annual ASEEES Convention
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Electoral Cycles, Ideological Orientations and the Framing: Computational text analysis of the newspaper articles in Serbia2021

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      Academia Sinica, Institute of Political Science, Lecture Series
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Impact of the ICTY on Local Mass Media: Longitudinal Content Analysis of the Serbian Newspapers, 2003-20162021

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      International Political Science Association (IPSA) World Congress
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] "Serbia between the West and the East: Origins and Impacts of the Military Neutrality Policy"2020

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      International Conference, "Friends with Enemies: Neutrality and Nonalignment Then and Now."
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] "Impact of the ICTY trials on local mass media: quantitative text analysis of the three Serbian Newspapers, 2003-2016"2019

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      IPSA (International Political Science Association), the Joint Colloquium, "Diversity and Democratic Governance: Legacies of the Past, Present Challenges, and Future Directions?"
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] "International transitional justice and domestic mass media: quantitative text analysis of Serbian newspaper reporting on the ICTY and war crimes,"2019

    • Author(s)
      Keiichi Kubo
    • Organizer
      2nd Annual POLTEXT Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Neutral Beyond the Cold: Neutral States and the Post-Cold War International System2022

    • Author(s)
      Pascal Lottaz, Heinz G?rtner and Herbert R. Rebinbogin, eds.
    • Total Pages
      318
    • Publisher
      Lexington Books
    • ISBN
      9781666901665
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Book] グローバル関係学とは何か2020

    • Author(s)
      酒井啓子(編)
    • Total Pages
      209
    • Publisher
      岩波書店
    • ISBN
      9784000270540
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 紛争が変える国家2020

    • Author(s)
      末近浩太・遠藤貢(編)
    • Total Pages
      207
    • Publisher
      岩波書店
    • ISBN
      9784000270571
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 教養としてのヨーロッパ政治2019

    • Author(s)
      松尾 秀哉、近藤 康史、近藤 正基、溝口 修平
    • Total Pages
      496
    • Publisher
      ミネルヴァ書房
    • ISBN
      9784623086412
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 争われる正義-旧ユーゴ地域の政党政治と移行期正義2019

    • Author(s)
      久保 慶一
    • Total Pages
      290
    • Publisher
      有斐閣
    • ISBN
      9784641149311
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] War Crimes Trials Database

    • URL

      https://www.warcrimesdatabase.net/

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2019-02-06   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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