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The Construction of the Real-Time Data Set and an Evaluation of Market Expectation with the Data Set

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19530252
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionNihon University

Principal Investigator

KOMAKI Yasuyuki  Nihon University, 経済学部, 教授 (80339225)

Project Period (FY) 2007 – 2009
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywordsリアルタイムデータ / リヴィジョン・スタディ / 期待形成
Research Abstract

Data revisions are important because they may affect policy decisions or the manner in which such decisions depend on the most recent data. Using Japanese real-time data set, we estimate how policy analysis and forecasts can be affected by data revisions. The revisions are more like measurement error than like efficient forecast in Japan. There is no real-time data set in Japan, though the data set is popular in US and Euro countries. We construct a real-time data set. We publish the data set through our web site.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2009 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2008 Annual Research Report
  • 2007 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (30 results)

All 2010 2009 2008 2007 Other

All Journal Article (13 results) Presentation (14 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] 欧米中央銀行の金融政策の危機対応―米国連邦準備と瑞国リクスバンク―2010

    • Author(s)
      地主敏樹・小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      内閣府「国際共同研究」, 第9章

      Pages: 78-78

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] マクロ経済予測の予測形成における評判効果と横並び水準の計測-アメリカ, 欧州における予測集計調査を用いて-2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之・矢嶋康次
    • Journal Title

      所報(ニッセイ基礎研究所) vol.54

      Pages: 55-70

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] イギリス・サービス指数(The Index of Service)2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済産業調査会『加工統計の在り方に関する調査研究』

      Pages: 13-26

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] マクロ経済予測の予測形成における評判効果と横並び水準の計測-アメリカ, 欧州における予測集計調査を用いて-2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之・矢嶋康次
    • Journal Title

      ニッセイ基礎研究所, 所報 54

      Pages: 55-70

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 鉱工業指数(生産, 出荷, 在庫, 在庫率)速報のリヴィジョン・スタディ2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 第36巻第III号

      Pages: 1-22

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 鉱工業指数(生産, 出荷, 在庫, 在庫率)速報のリヴィジョン・スタディ2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻 泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 第36巻第III号

      Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 鉱工業指数(鉱工業生産)速報の合理性分析2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 35巻IV号

      Pages: 13-13

    • NAID

      40015940361

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 鉱工業指数(鉱工業生産)速報の合理性分析2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 第35巻IV号

      Pages: 13-26

    • NAID

      40015940361

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 金融市場における景気指標サプライズの影響2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之・矢嶋康次
    • Journal Title

      所報(ニッセイ基礎研究所) vol.47

      Pages: 1-14

    • NAID

      40015655349

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 外国為替サーベイ・データの比較分析-JCIFとWEIS-2007

    • Author(s)
      浅子和美, 小巻泰之, 竹田陽介, 地主敏樹, 林康史
    • Journal Title

      経済研究 第58巻第2号

      Pages: 163-186

    • NAID

      120004791499

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 景気指標の公表と市場の反応-四半期GDPにおける新推計法の採用と推計方法開示の効果-2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 第35巻I号

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 経済データに関する不確実性の影響-金融ルール(テイラー・ルール)の利用-2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      所報(ニッセイ基礎研究所) vol.45

      Pages: 22-46

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 景気指標の公表と市場の反応-四半期GDPにおける新推計法の採用と推計方法開示の効果-2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究 35巻I号

      Pages: 16-16

    • Related Report
      2007 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Real Time Forecasting with the Composite Leading Index2010

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      景気日付研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      和歌山白浜
    • Year and Date
      2010-01-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Real Time Forecasting with the Composite Leading Index2010

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      景気日付研究会白浜コンファレンス
    • Place of Presentation
      和歌山県・白浜
    • Year and Date
      2010-01-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 「労働生産性の計測におけるデータ改訂の影響」論文へのコメント2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      東京大学・日本銀行共催コンファレンス
    • Place of Presentation
      日本銀行本店
    • Year and Date
      2009-11-26
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Comovement of Business Cycles among the world-The Asymmetry Effect in Demand and Supply Shocks-2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      11th INFER Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      イギリス・スターリング
    • Year and Date
      2009-09-06
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Publicity effects2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      IAREP and SABE joint conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Canada・Halifax
    • Year and Date
      2009-07-09
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Publicity effects2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      IAREP and SABE joint conference
    • Place of Presentation
      カナダ・ハリファックス
    • Year and Date
      2009-07-09
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The reputation effects in professional forecast2009

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      The 29th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Place of Presentation
      中国・香港
    • Year and Date
      2009-06-23
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report 2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A comparison of survey-based expectations of foreign exchange rates-Comparing the relative power of forecasting using the JCIF and the WEIS survey-2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之(共同)
    • Organizer
      29th CIRET Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Santiago, Chile
    • Year and Date
      2008-10-08
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Reliability of Forecast-an Anonymous and Non-anonymous forecast2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      The 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Place of Presentation
      Nice, France
    • Year and Date
      2008-06-25
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Revisions analysis of the index of industrial production in Japan2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      65th IAES Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Warsaw, Poland
    • Year and Date
      2008-04-10
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A comparison of survey-based expectations of foreign exchange rates- Comparing the relative power of forecasting using the JCIF and the WEIS survey-2008

    • Author(s)
      浅子和美, 小巻泰之, 竹田陽介, 地主敏樹
    • Organizer
      29th CIRET Conference, Santiago
    • Place of Presentation
      イタリア・ローマ
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Reliability of Forecast- an Anonymous and Non-anonymous forecast2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Place of Presentation
      フランス・ニース
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Revisions analysis of the index of industrial production in Japan2008

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      65th IAES Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      ポーランド・ワルシャワ
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Impact of Improvement of Measurement error on Quarterly Estimates of GDP in Japan2007

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      MEASUREMENT ERROR Econometrics and Practice, Aston Business School, Aston University
    • Place of Presentation
      イギリス・バーミンガム
    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] にて日本のリアルタイムのデータセット及びリアルタイム関連の成果を順次公開している

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2007-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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