Prediction and integrated assessment of health risks due to heat-induced disorders and infectious diseases under climate change

• Project/Area Number: 19H01144
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 63:Environmental analyses and evaluation and related fields
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: 福士 謙介 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 教授 (30282114)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 渡部 徹 山形大学, 農学部, 教授 (10302192) ; 渡辺 幸三 愛媛大学, 沿岸環境科学研究センター, 教授 (80634435) ; 浦 剣 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 助教 (40622072)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥45,760,000 (Direct Cost: ¥35,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥10,560,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥13,650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,150,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥18,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,260,000)
• Keywords: 健康リスク / 気候変動 / 暑熱障害 / 感染症 / 東南アジア / 機械学習

Outline of Research at the Start

気候変動下では、都市気象の変化により感染症や暑熱障害等の健康リスクが高まることが想定されており、特に途上国都市ではその脆弱性が懸念される。本研究は、東南アジアの都市を対象として、（１）熱中症や睡眠障害等の暑熱に関連する健康障害、（２）下痢症・皮膚病・眼病等の水系感染症、（３）デング熱やジカ熱等の蚊媒介感染症の３つの健康リスクをそれぞれ予測する機械学習モデルを開発する。そして、気候変動モデルとのカップリングにより、想定する気候変動適応オプション下における３つの健康リスクのDALY（障害調整損失年）をそれぞれ算定し、合計して経済的損失に換算することで、３つのリスクを統合的に評価する手法を構築する。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

【研究項目１】気候変動下の気象・水文ダウンスケーリング：気候予測モデルと代表的濃度経路（RCP）シナリオについては、当初の計画通りに準備を行った。統計学的ダウンスケーリングの妥当な空間解像度と不確実性を検証するために、各都市の気象データを現地研究者を介して入手した。
【研究項目２】暑熱に関連する健康リスクの予測モデル：ベトナム、インドネシアの都市部において気温、湿度、風、放射熱等の環境情報、着衣等の文化的な情報、エネルギー使用状況等の情報（ヒートアイランドの影響をモデルに考慮するため）、そして、移動経路と移動手段の情報（人間の移動行動をモデルに考慮するため）についてアンケート調査を行った。さらに、暑熱環境における睡眠障害の分析方法を検討し、寝室における赤外線センサーを用いた睡眠深度測定とアンケート調査によって行うこととした。
研究項目３】水系感染症に関する健康リスクの予測モデル：気候変動下で不衛生な水に接触することによる水系感染症リスクを推定するために、洪水時にあふれた汚水との接触頻度、渇水時における体の洗浄頻度、気温の高い時期の水浴び回数などに注目しながら、インタビュー調査を設計した。それを用いた予備調査も実施した。
【研究項目４】蚊媒介感染症に関する健康リスクの予測モデル：マニラ、バンドン、マカッサル等で、気象、水文変数、土地利用変数に基づいて蚊の生息数を予測する「蚊生態サブモデル」を機械学習（ランダムフォレスト）で作成した。その結果、蚊個体数の空間分布は主に概ね１～２か月前の気象変数（年最大気温、月降水量）データを反映した動態を示していることが示された。各都市を網羅的にカバーするように、成虫個体数および産卵卵数を調査した。成虫は各家庭の軒下や屋内に誘虫紫外線ランプと吸引ファンを備えた電動採捕機を設置し、採取時間を記録して単位努力量当たり捕獲数（個体数/日）を評価した。

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

上記の通り，本年度に設定した研究実施計画に沿って，おおむね研究を実施できたため。本年度の終盤には新型コロナウイルスの世界的流行が発生したものの，本研究の進捗に対するその影響は限定的であった。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

新型コロナウイルスの世界的流行にともなう研究室利用や海外渡航の制限がどれだけ続くか心配であるが，海外のカウンターパートの協力を得ながら，できる限り計画通りに研究を実施できるように努める。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] フエ大学/ハノイ土木大学(ベトナム)
• [Int'l Joint Research] カンボジア工科大学(カンボジア)
• [Int'l Joint Research] デラサール大学(フィリピン)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ウダヤナ大学(インドネシア)
• [Journal Article] CHARACTERIZATION OF DISTRIBUTION OF FLOATING VILLAGES IN TONLE SAP LAKE AND ITS ESTIMATION BASED ON GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION (2020)
  • Author(s): 米田一路，西山正晃，渡部徹
  • Journal Title: J. JSCE Ser. G Volume: 75(7) Issue: 7 Pages: III_309-III_320
  • DOI: 10.2208/jscejer.75.7_iii_309 10.2208/jscejer.75.7_III_309
  • ISSN: 2185-6648
  • Year and Date: 2020-03-23
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact assessment of climate change on the major rice cultivar Ciherang in Indonesia (2020)
  • Author(s): Kinose, Y., Masutomi, Y., Shiotsu, F., Hayashi, K., Ogawada, D., Gomez-Garcia, M., Matsumura, A., Takahashi, K., Fukushi, K.
  • Journal Title: J. Agric. Meteorol. Volume: 76 Issue: 1 Pages: 19-28
  • DOI: 10.2480/agrmet.d-19-00045 10.2480/agrmet.D-19-00045
  • ISSN: 0021-8588, 1881-0136
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Fine-Scale Population Genetic Structure of Dengue Mosquito Vector, Aedes aegypti in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines (2020)
  • Author(s): Carvajal, T. M., K. Ogishi, S. Yaegashi, L. F. T. Hernandez, K. M. Viacrusis, H. T. Ho, D. Amalin, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Volume: 4(5)
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008279
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparative population genetic structure of two Ixodidae ticks (Ixodes ovatus and Haemaphysalis flava) in Niigata Prefecture, Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Regilme, M. A. F., M. Sato, T. Tamura, R. Arai, M. O. Sato, S. Ikeda, M. Doi, K. Tanaka, M. Gamboa, M. T. Monaghan, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: bioRxiv Volume: n.a.
  • DOI: 10.1101/862904
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Spatially Varying Trophic Effects of Reservoir-Derived Plankton on Stream Macroinvertebrates Among Heterogeneous Habitats Within Reaches (2020)
  • Author(s): Faridah, L, F. Rinawan, N. Fauziah, W. Mayasari, A. Dwiartama, K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: bioRxiv Volume: 17(5) Pages: 1795-1795
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051795
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An Integrated mHealth App for Dengue Reporting and Mapping, Health Communication, and Behavior Modification: Development and Assessment of Mozzify (2020)
  • Author(s): Herbuela, V. R. D. M., T. Karita, M. Francisco, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: JMIR Formative Research Volume: 4(1)
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Changing the scientific approach to fast transitions to a sustainable world. Improving knowledge production for sustainable policy and practice (2019)
  • Author(s): Bai, X., Begashaw, B., Bursztyn, M., Chabay, I., Droy, S., Folke, C., Fukushi, K., Gupta, J., Hackmann, H., Hege, E.-b., Jaeger, C., Patwardhan, A., Renn, O., Safonov, G., Schlosser, P., Skaloud, P., Vogel, C., van der Leeuw, S., Zhang, Y.
  • Journal Title: IASS Discussion Paper Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Investigating Water Sustainability and Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULC) As the Impact Of Tourism Activity In Bali, Indonesia (2019)
  • Author(s): Rimba, A.B., Chapagain, S.K., Masago, Y., Fukushi, K., Mohan, G
  • Journal Title: IGARSS 2019 - 2019 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Yokohama, Japan Volume: - Pages: 6531-6534
  • DOI: 10.1109/igarss.2019.8900060
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Addressing Climate change in the water sector: The study of Run-of-river Hydropower potential in Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin of Vietnam (2019)
  • Author(s): Nguyen, L.H., Fukushi, K
  • Journal Title: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Volume: 266 Pages: 012014-012014
  • DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/266/1/012014
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms among Pediatric In-patients with Dengue Fever: A Case-control Study (2019)
  • Author(s): Herbuela, V.R.D.M., F.S.d. Guzman, G. Sobrepe?a, A.B.F. Claudio, A.C.V. Tomas, C.M.A-d. Reyes, M.M. Teodoro, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume: 17 (1) Pages: 99-99
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17010099
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Knowledge, Attitude and Practices on Dengue Fever among Paediatric and Adult In-patients in Metro Manila, Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Herbuela, V. R. D. M., F. S. d Guzman, G. D. Sobrepena, A. B. F. Claudio, A. C. V. Tomas, C. M. A-d Reyes, R. A. Regalado, M. M. Teodoro, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume: 16 (23) Pages: 4705-4705
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16234705
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Detection of Wolbachia Infection in Field-collected Mosquito Vector, Aedes aegypti in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Carvajal,T. M., K. Hashimoto, R. K. Harnandika, D. M. Amalin and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Parasites & Vectors Volume: 12 (1) Pages: 361-361
  • DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3629-y
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Is Rapid Dengue Test Necessary at Primary Health Centre? A Study In Bandung City (2019)
  • Author(s): Faridah, L., N. Fauziah, S Ekawardhani, Riyadi, and K. Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research Volume: 13 (7)
  • DOI: 10.7860/jcdr/2019/41059.13004
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] トンレサップ湖の水上集落における飲み水のふん便汚染と薬剤耐性菌の実態調査 (2020)
  • Author(s): 西山正晃，浦剣，Mith Hasika，In Sokneang，渡部徹
  • Organizer: 令和元年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会
• [Presentation] トンレサップ湖における水質モデルを用いた水上生活者の健康リスク (2020)
  • Author(s): 米田一路，西山正晃，渡部徹
  • Organizer: 第25回庄内・社会基盤技術フォーラム
• [Presentation] Effects of spatially varying association between land use and water quality in Bali Province, Indonesia using geographically weighted regression (2019)
  • Author(s): Rimba, A. B., Mohan, G., Chapagain, S., Fukushi, K., Roder, G., Andi, A.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Simulating the impacts of climate change and farm-level adaptation strategies on rice yields in India and Vietnam (2019)
  • Author(s): Mohan, G., Matsuda, H., Melts, I., Sekiyama, M., Nguyen, T.L., Anugu Amarender, R., Fukushi, K.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, USA
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Spatial distribution of E. coli concentration in the Tonle Sap Lake during low water level season (2019)
  • Author(s): I. Yoneda, S. Ang, M. Nishiyama, H. Mith, R. Khanal, S. In, T. Watanabe
  • Organizer: 4th International Symposium on Conservation and Management of Tropical Lakes, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Development and assessment of Mozzify app: an integrated mhealth for real-time Dengue reporting and mapping, health communication and behavior modification reporting and mapping, health communication and behavior modification (2019)
  • Author(s): Herbuela, Von Ralph Dane M., Karita Tomonori, Francisco, Micanaldo, Watanabe Kozo
  • Organizer: 1st JSPS Core-to-Core Symposium: Center of Excellence in Health Risk Assessment for Adaptation to Climate Change
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Designing and Developing a Nanobiosensor for the detection of important microbials in Ae. aegypti (2019)
  • Author(s): Carvajal Thadeus, Alocilja Evangeline, Divina Amalin and Watanabe Kozo
  • Organizer: 1st JSPS Core-to-Core Symposium: Center of Excellence in Health Risk Assessment for Adaptation to Climate Change
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Detection of Wolbachia in Field-collected Dengue Vector Mosquito, Aedes aegypti in the Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: 1st JSPS Core-to-Core Symposium: Center of Excellence in Health Risk Assessment for Adaptation to Climate Change
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] A Bioclimate-Based Maximum Entropy Model for Comperiella calauanica Barrion, Almarinez & Amalin (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) and Its Utility in Predicting the Occurrence of Aspidiotus rigidus Reyne (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) in the Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Almarinez, BLM., Fadri, MJA., Lasina, R., Carvajal, TM., Watanabe, K., Legaspi, JC., and DM Amalin
  • Organizer: 1st JSPS Core-to-Core Symposium: Center of Excellence in Health Risk Assessment for Adaptation to Climate Change
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Detection of Wolbachia in Field-collected Dengue Vector Mosquito, Aedes aegypti in the Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Philippine Society for Microbiology 48th Annual Convention
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Contributing Factors to Childhood Stunting in Indonesia: Water Quality and Diarrhea (2019)
  • Author(s): Savira Ekawardhani, Hesti Lina Wiraswati, Lia Faridah, Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Water and Environment Technology Conference 2019 (WET2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Is Rapid Dengue Test Necessary at Primary Health Centre? A Study in Bandung City, Indonesia (2019)
  • Author(s): Lia Faridah, Ryadi, Nisa Fauziah, Savira Ekawardhani, Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Water and Environment Technology Conference 2019 (WET2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Understanding the Spatial Transmission of Dengue Disease in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines (2019)
  • Author(s): Micanaldo Francisco, Thaddeus Carvajal, Kozo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Water and Environment Technology Conference 2019 (WET2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research