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Economic theory and experiments on risk behavior under asymmetric uncertainty and ambiguity with a sizable impact

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H01485
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research InstitutionKochi University of Technology

Principal Investigator

Kotani Koji  高知工科大学, 経済・マネジメント学群, 教授 (80422583)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 西條 辰義  高知工科大学, 経済・マネジメント学群, 特任教授 (20205628)
田中 健太  武蔵大学, 経済学部, 教授 (30633474)
柿中 真  広島大学, 人間社会科学研究科(国), 教授 (40421234)
上條 良夫  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (40453972)
青木 隆太  東京都立大学, 人文科学研究科, 特任准教授 (50751103)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥11,830,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,730,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Keywords不確実性 / 不明確生 / 絶大希少事象 / 非対称 / 経済実験 / 経済分析 / 不明確性 / 公共財供給 / 公共悪供給 / 政策 / リスク経済分析 / 協力行動 / リスク行動 / 歪み / 実験 / リスク / 理論分析 / 歪み・非対称性 / 不確実性・不明確性 / 経済実験・理論
Outline of Research at the Start

1. 歪み・非対称不確実性・不明確性下での経済分析のレビュー、及び、理論構築
2. 実験の為のラボ・フィールド選定・準備(担当:小谷、柿中、田中)
3. ベースライン(最も基礎となる単純化された)実験デザインと実施(担当:小谷、田中)
4. ラボ・フィールドベンチマーク実験の異なる設定への応用(担当:小谷、柿中、田中)、そして、fMRI実験:歪みと非対称不確実性・不明確性に対する人々の脳反応(担当:小谷、青木)
5. データ解析の比較検討、経済理論へのフィードバック(担当:小谷、柿中、西條、上條)

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In not only Japan but also several parts of the world, we conducted field and laboratory experiments to examine how uncertain and ambiguous situations induce people to behave differently in responses to some events and the consequences. We identify that whether or not some event is uncertan or ambiguous along with skewness and small possibility creates huge discrepances in human behaviors and responses through the aforementioned experimental researches. In particular, we observe that behavioral responses to some event, such as climate change or some related disasters, can be opposite between uncertain and ambiguous situations, and we document these experimental results as academc papers during the project periods. Due to the fact that Covid-19 had been spread, we could not implement all the initial plans including conference participations. However, we could successfully implement the main plans and generate several academic papers that gets published in reputed academic journals.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現在の経済状況はVUCA(Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity)時代と言われ、変化を予測し難い世の中になっていると言われている。こうした状況下で本研究課題の研究成果は、人々がある事象に関連する変化を不確実、若しくは、不明確と認知するか否か、そして、それら認知に応じてどの様に反応と行動が変わるのか明らかにしたと云う点において学術的、且つ、社会的意義を有する。研究成果は気候変動対策や感染症対策等における行動変容への示唆や提言として重要な価値を持つものとなっている。その証左として研究成果は複数論文として学術雑誌掲載されている。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] COVID-19-associated income loss and job loss: Evidence from Indonesia2023

    • Author(s)
      R. Putra, O. Kostiantyn and K. Kotani
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Asian Economics

      Volume: Forthcoming

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] How do farm size and perceptions matter for farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change in a developing country? Evidence from Nepal2022

    • Author(s)
      Koirala Pankaj、Kotani Koji、Managi Shunsuke
    • Journal Title

      Economic Analysis and Policy

      Volume: 74 Pages: 188-204

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.eap.2022.01.014

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Is climate change induced by humans? The impact of the gap in perceptions on cooperation2021

    • Author(s)
      Hirose Junichi、Kotani Koji、Nakagawa Yoshinori
    • Journal Title

      Economics of Disasters and Climate Change

      Volume: 5 Issue: 3 Pages: 391-413

    • DOI

      10.1007/s41885-021-00090-7

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Cooperation and cognition gaps for salinity: A field experiment of information provision in urban and rural areas of Bangladesh2021

    • Author(s)
      Mst Asma Khatun、Shahrier Shibly、Kotani Koji
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Cleaner Production

      Volume: 311 Pages: 127562-127562

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127562

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Salinity and Water-Related Disease Risk in Coastal Bangladesh2021

    • Author(s)
      Asma Khatun Mst、Kotani Koji
    • Journal Title

      EcoHealth

      Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Pages: 61-75

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10393-021-01517-z

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Time Preferences of Food Producers: Does “Cultivate and Grow” Matter?2020

    • Author(s)
      Hernuryadin Yayan、Kotani Koji、Saijo Tatsuyoshi
    • Journal Title

      Land Economics

      Volume: 96 Issue: 1 Pages: 132-148

    • DOI

      10.3368/le.96.1.132

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Time preferences between individuals and groups in the transition from hunter-gatherer to industrial societies2019

    • Author(s)
      Yayan Hernuryadin, Koji Kotani and Yoshio Kamijo
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Pages: 395-395

    • DOI

      10.3390/su11020395

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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