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Estimating nonlinear behavioral macroeconomic models with the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H01491
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Ueda Kozo  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (30708558)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 新谷 元嗣  東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (00252718)
飯星 博邦  日本大学, 経済学部, 教授 (90381441)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
KeywordsDSGEモデル / 金融政策 / ゼロ金利制約 / 行動経済学 / ベイズ推計 / 量的緩和 / 限界消費性向 / 現金需要 / 量的緩和政策 / 近視眼的行動
Outline of Research at the Start

DSGEモデルは、現代のマクロ経済学における標準的分析ツールであるものの、多くの限界が指摘されている。本研究では、第1に名目金利のゼロ制約を考慮し、第2に「経済主体は将来の経済状態について完全には理解しない」とする行動経済学要素を取り込んで、モデルを構築し推計する。そして、得られた推計値から、金融政策、特にフォワードガイダンスの効果、など政策シミュレーションを実施する。こうした研究は、計算負荷の高さからいまだ存在しないだけでなく、高い現実妥当性から学術的にも政策的にも重要性が大きい。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study attempts to elucidate the Japanese economy during the secular stagnation by constructing and estimating macroeconomic models. The specific features of this study are to incorporate the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate as well as behavioral economics elements that assume that economic agents do not fully understand future economic conditions, while also taking into account quantitative easing policy. Through estimating the model, the effects of monetary policy were simulated and the causes of the secular stagnation were analyzed.
Some of the research outcomes led to working papers and publications, including two articles (including one planned) in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, a prestigious journal in the field of macroeconomics.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

DSGEモデルは、現代のマクロ経済学における標準的分析ツールであるものの、多くの限界が指摘されている。本研究では、特に、名目金利のゼロ制約や行動経済学要素を取り込んで、モデルを構築し推計することに意義がある。こうした研究は、計算負荷の高さからいまだ存在しないだけでなく、高い現実妥当性から学術的にも政策的にも重要性が大きい。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (18 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Estimating a Behavioral New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound2024

    • Author(s)
      Yasuo Hirose, Hirokuni Iiboshi, Mototsugu Shintani, Kozo Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of bank branch/ATM consolidations on cash demand: Evidence from bank account transaction data in Japan2024

    • Author(s)
      Ueda Kozo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 71 Pages: 101305-101305

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101305

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Identifying the Source of Information Rigidities in the Expectations Formation Process2023

    • Author(s)
      Shintani Mototsugu、Ueda Kozo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

      Volume: -- Pages: 104653-104653

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104653

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Duopolistic competition and monetary policy2023

    • Author(s)
      Ueda Kozo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Monetary Economics

      Volume: 135 Pages: 70-85

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.003

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] REALLOCATION EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY2022

    • Author(s)
      Miyakawa Daisuke、Oikawa Koki、Ueda Kozo
    • Journal Title

      International Economic Review

      Volume: - Issue: 2 Pages: 947-975

    • DOI

      10.1111/iere.12558

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] High-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Kubota Hiroyuki、Shintani Mototsugu
    • Journal Title

      The Japanese Economic Review

      Volume: 73 Issue: 3 Pages: 483-513

    • DOI

      10.1007/s42973-021-00110-x

    • NAID

      210000173170

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Sticky wages in a world of ideas2022

    • Author(s)
      Huang Kevin X. D.、Katayama Munechika、Shintani Mototsugu、Tsuruga Takayuki
    • Journal Title

      Economic Inquiry

      Volume: 60 Issue: 4 Pages: 1757-1781

    • DOI

      10.1111/ecin.13090

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Iiboshi, Hirokuni, Mototsugu Shintani, and Kozo Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis2021

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi, Keiichiro, and Kozo Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Bank Branch/ATM Consolidations on Cash Demand: Evidence from Bank Account Transaction Data in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Kozo Ueda
    • Organizer
      NBER/CEPR/TCER (TRIO) Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Misallocation under the Shadow of Death2022

    • Author(s)
      Kozo Ueda
    • Organizer
      NBER Japan Project
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Oligopolistic Competition, Price Rigidity, and Monetary Policy2022

    • Author(s)
      Kozo Ueda
    • Organizer
      Econometric Society Asia Meeting
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Misallocation under the Shadow of Death2022

    • Author(s)
      Kozo Ueda
    • Organizer
      Econometric Society Australasia Meeting
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Johansen test with Fourier-type smooth non-linear trends in cointegrating relations2022

    • Author(s)
      Takamitsu Kurita, Mototsugu Shintani
    • Organizer
      The 5th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Behavioral explanation for the puzzling persistence of the aggregate real exchange rate2022

    • Author(s)
      Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
    • Organizer
      The 16th International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications (SETA2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Behavioral explanation for the puzzling persistence of the aggregate real exchange rate2022

    • Author(s)
      Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
    • Organizer
      EEA-ESEM Congress 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Nowcasting Japanese GDP using text data and machine learning2022

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Oh, Mototsugu Shintani
    • Organizer
      The 15th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Pythonによるマクロ経済予測入門2022

    • Author(s)
      新谷 元嗣、前橋 昂平
    • Total Pages
      224
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • ISBN
      9784254129014
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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