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Attribution and projection of sea surface temperature changes around Japan from the past to future

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H01962
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Watanabe Masahiro  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (70344497)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 塩竈 秀夫  国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球システム領域, 室長 (30391113)
建部 洋晶  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(環境変動予測研究センター), グループリーダー (40466876)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,960,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Keywords気候変化 / 海面水温 / 全球気候モデル / 温暖化予測
Outline of Research at the Start

過去100年間の観測データから、日本周辺海域の海面水温は全海洋平均の倍以上の割合で
上昇していることが分かっている。海面水温の長期的な上昇は、夏の猛暑の誘発要因となるなど、日本社会にとって負の影響が懸念されるが、なぜ特に日本周辺で海面水温が上昇しているのかは未解明である。本課題では、大規模な大気海洋相互作用を表現しつつ日本周辺の海流を解像できるような気候モデルを用いたメカニズム実験および、従来型気候モデルを用いた要因切り分け実験を実施し、観測データと比較解析することで、上記の疑問解明を目指す。過去の変化に対する理解から、日本周辺域の将来気候変化のより確かな予測に資する知見が得られると期待される。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

It is unequivocal that climate has warmed due to human activity and the surface warming is conspicuous over the past 30-40 years in particular. World ocean surface has also warmed with about 0.5 degree per century, and the trend is more than double in the North Pacific around Japan. Because of the impact of regional ocean warming on marine ecosystems and extreme hot weather, it is important to understand the cause of large ocean surface warming around Japan. This study revealed that the recent warming of the ocean surface around Japan was explained not only by the greenhouse gas induced global warming but also by a temporary signature associated with declining atmospheric aerosols that otherwise act to cool the surface. Both radiative drivers acted to heat the ocean surface around Japan via atmospheric heat transport from warming Eurasian continent. The above finding will help decision making for climate change adaptation in Japan.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

大気および地表の気候の決定要因は海面水温の分布であり、特に地域の気候変化にとって、周辺海域の温暖化が大きな影響をおよぼす。日本周辺で特に海水温の上昇が大きいことは、我が国の水産資源へのダメージや、夏季の高温事象の増加の要因となっていると考えられ、本研究の結果はそれらの温暖化影響を理解する上で重要な知見をもたらす。特に、エアロゾルの排出源による一時的な昇温は、将来は作用しないと考えられる一方、ユーラシア大陸のさらなる温暖化が代わりに海水温の上昇をもたらす可能性が指摘されたことは、我が国の気候変動適応にとって有益な示唆となる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (17 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Stockholm University(スウェーデン)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Paris(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases. Part II: Transient climate state.2023

    • Author(s)
      Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: in press Issue: 13 Pages: 1-57

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-22-0483.1

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Near-equilibrium state.2021

    • Author(s)
      Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 34 Pages: 9279-9292

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mode of precipitation variability generated by coupling of ENSO with seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific.2021

    • Author(s)
      Fukuda, Y., M. Watanabe, and F.-F. Jin
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 48 Issue: 16

    • DOI

      10.1029/2021gl095204

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current are synchronized2021

    • Author(s)
      Kohyama Tsubasa、Yamagami Yoko、Miura Hiroaki、Kido Shoichiro、Tatebe Hiroaki、Watanabe Masahiro
    • Journal Title

      Science

      Volume: 374 Issue: 6565 Pages: 341-346

    • DOI

      10.1126/science.abh3295

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The northwestern Pacific warming record in August 2020 occurred under anthropogenic forcing.2021

    • Author(s)
      Hayashi, M., H. Shiogama, S. Emori, T. Ogura, and N. Hirota
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 48 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1029/2020gl090956

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient.2021

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., J.-L. Dufresne, Y. Kosaka, T. Mauritsen, and H. Tatebe
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 33-37

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951-2010.2020

    • Author(s)
      Toda, M., and M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 54 Issue: 9-10 Pages: 4129-4145

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-020-05221-6

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Importance of constraining the pattern effect during the historical period for future temperature projection.2022

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      AGU 2022 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Mode of precipitation variability generated by coupling of ENSO with seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific.2022

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2021
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases.2021

    • Author(s)
      Toda, M.
    • Organizer
      2021 CFMIP meeting on climate sensitivity
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio current are synchronized.2021

    • Author(s)
      Kohyama, T.
    • Organizer
      AGU 2021 Fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Attribution of large-scale changes in the atmosphere-ocean system over the past decades2020

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      8th EU-Japan Workshop on Climate Change Research
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 20世紀における日本周辺のSST長期変化メカニズム2019

    • Author(s)
      戸田賢希、渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 20世紀における日本周辺のSST長期変化メカニズム2019

    • Author(s)
      戸田賢希、渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      気象庁長期予報研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 地球・惑星・生命2020

    • Author(s)
      日本地球惑星科学連合編
    • Total Pages
      280
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • ISBN
      9784130637152
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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