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How does Arctic sea ice loss shape and amplify extreme cold waves in East Asia?

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H01964
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
Research InstitutionKyushu University (2020-2021)
The University of Tokyo (2019)

Principal Investigator

Mori Masato  九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 助教 (00749179)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 西井 和晃  三重大学, 生物資源学研究科, 准教授 (50623401)
小坂 優  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Keywords海氷 / 北極 / 地球温暖化 / 異常気象 / 気候変動 / テレコネクション
Outline of Research at the Start

海氷面積の急速な縮小を伴う北極域の加速度的な温暖化とは対照的に、冬季ユーラシア大陸の中緯度域では近年、異常寒波や厳冬が頻発し、北極域とは逆に寒冷化が進んでいる。観測データの解析や大気モデルを用いた感度実験により、当該地域に低温偏差をもたらす大気内部モードの発生確率が海氷減少に呼応して増加していることが明らかになってきた。しかし、海氷から大気への影響だけでなく、大気から海氷への影響も考慮した包括的なメカニズムの解明が求められている。本研究では、最新の大気海洋結合モデルによる大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションから、大気内部モードの形成・維持メカニズムやその励起・増幅機構を明らかにする。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Arctic sea ice is rapidly decreasing with global warming, which has been suggested to affect not only Arctic climate but also weather and climate in the midlatitude. This study investigated the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the formation and enhancement of extreme cold waves and severe winters that have been occurring frequently in East Asia in recent years, and the mechanisms underlying these events by using numerical model simulation. Although the large scale atmospheric circulation variability that responsible for the East Asian cold winters, named WACE, is basically atmospheric internal variability, a hybrid analysis of observations and muti-model large ensemble simulation showed that a part of the WACE variability is externally forced by sea-ice anomaly. In addition, the comparison of coupled model simulations with the atmosphere-only simulations indicated that the atmosphere-ice coupling processes act to enhance the variance of WACE.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

上記の結果は、WACEパターンに伴う大気循環偏差と海氷偏差との相互作用が、WACEパターン自身の成長に無視できない寄与を果たしていることを示唆している。これはこれまでにない全く新しい知見であり、今後の新しい学術的な展開が期待される。また、東アジアの寒冬の季節予測のさらなる精度向上のためには、大気・海洋だけでなく海氷変動の現実的な予測性能が不可欠である可能性を示唆しており、社会的にも重要な知見であると考える。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (5 results) Journal Article (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 10 results,  Open Access: 6 results) Presentation (18 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 6 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 英国気象庁ハドレーセンター(英国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] カリフォルニア大学スクリプス海洋研究所(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 中国海洋大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Bergen(ノルウェー)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Princeton University/University of California(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss2022

    • Author(s)
      Smith D. M.、Eade R.、Andrews M. B.、Ayres H.、Clark A.、Chripko S.、Deser C.、Dunstone N. J.、Garc?a-Serrano J.、Gastineau G.、Graff L. S.、Hardiman S. C.、He B.、Hermanson L.、Jung T.、Knight J.、Levine X.、Magnusdottir G.、Manzini E.、Matei D.、Mori M. et al.
    • Journal Title

      Nature Communications

      Volume: 13 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Trends and projection of heavy snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan as an application of self-organizing map2021

    • Author(s)
      Inatsu Masaru、Kawazoe Sho、Mori Masato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

      Volume: 60 Pages: 1483-1494

    • DOI

      10.1175/jamc-d-21-0085.1

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Remote influence of the interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon on wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific2021

    • Author(s)
      Sekizawa Shion、Nakamura Hisashi、Kosaka Yu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: - Pages: 1-54

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-21-0202.1

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Reply to: Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis2021

    • Author(s)
      Mori Masato、Kosaka Yu、Watanabe Masahiro、Taguchi Bunmei、Nakamura Hisashi、Kimoto Masahide
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Pages: 109-111

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-020-00983-7

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Synchronized tropical Pacific and extratropical variability during the past three decades2020

    • Author(s)
      Yang Jun-Chao、Lin Xiaopei、Xie Shang-Ping、Zhang Yu、Kosaka Yu、Li Ziguang
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 10 Issue: 5 Pages: 422-427

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-020-0753-9

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Dynamics of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing2020

    • Author(s)
      Wang Hai、Xie Shang‐Ping、Zheng Xiao‐Tong、Kosaka Yu、Xu Yangyang、Geng Yu‐Fan
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 47 Issue: 19 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1029/2020gl089919

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector2020

    • Author(s)
      Martineau Patrick、Nakamura Hisashi、Kosaka Yu、Taguchi Bunmei、Mori Masato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 33 Issue: 18 Pages: 8125-8146

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-19-0977.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Multidecadal modulations of key metrics of global climate change2020

    • Author(s)
      Nathaniel C.Johnson, Dillon J.Amaya, Qinghua Ding, Yu Kosaka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Shang-Ping Xie
    • Journal Title

      Global and Planetary Change

      Volume: 188 Pages: 103149-103149

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103149

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Reply to: Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models?2019

    • Author(s)
      Mori Masato、Kosaka Yu、Watanabe Masahiro、Taguchi Bunmei、Nakamura Hisashi、Kimoto Masahide
    • Journal Title

      Nature Climate Change

      Volume: 9 Issue: 12 Pages: 937-939

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41558-019-0636-0

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Arctic-Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability2019

    • Author(s)
      Matsumura Shinji、Kosaka Yu
    • Journal Title

      Nature Communications

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 3441-3441

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41467-019-11359-7

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] The rapid global surface warming since the mid-2010s and the role of tropical Pacific decadal variability.2022

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., and Xie, S.-P.
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2022
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] WACEパターン形成・維持に対する大気-海氷結合の役割2021

    • Author(s)
      森正人,小坂優, 田口文明
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] CMIP6におけるシルクロードパターンの温暖化に伴う変調2021

    • Author(s)
      小坂優
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Weakening of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern under global warming in CMIP6 projections.2021

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y.
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Arctic Sea ice loss and Eurasian cooling in winter 2020-212021

    • Author(s)
      Nishii, K., B. Taguchi, H. Nakamura
    • Organizer
      JpGU 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 北極海の海氷減少と東アジアの寒冬について2021

    • Author(s)
      森 正人
    • Organizer
      研究会「長期予報と大気大循環」
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2017/18 年寒冬と2019/20 年暖冬のAGCM による再現実験2020

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃,田口文明,中村尚
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific variability on Arctic climate.2020

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., T. Takigawa, L. Svendsen, B. Taguchi
    • Organizer
      Sixth International Symposium on Arctic Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling2020

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      Sixth International Symposium on Arctic Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2017/18 年の東アジアの寒冬に対する温暖化寄与の定量化2019

    • Author(s)
      森正人, 今田由紀子, 塩竈秀夫, 小坂優, 高橋千陽, 荒井美紀, 釡江陽一, 長谷川聡, 渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 近年のユーラシアの寒冷化に果たす北極海 氷減少の影響2019

    • Author(s)
      森正人, 小坂優, 渡部雅浩, 中村尚, 木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling2019

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] An AGCM Assessment of Oceanic Impacts on Extreme Climatic Events over Japan in July 20182019

    • Author(s)
      Nishii, K., B. Taguchi, H. Nakamura
    • Organizer
      International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 近年のユーラシアの寒冷化に果たす北極海氷減少の影響2019

    • Author(s)
      森正人, 小坂優, 渡部雅浩, 中村尚, 木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会2019 年度 秋季大会,
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling2019

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会小倉連携セッション "Deepening understanding of weather and climate from dynamical perspective"
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific internal variability on Arctic climate.2019

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., T. Takigawa, L. Svendsen, B. Taguchi, Y. Imada
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会小倉連携セッション "Deepening understanding of weather and climate from dynamical perspective"
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific variability on Arctic climate.2019

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., T. Takigawa, L. Svendsen, B. Taguchi, Y. Imada
    • Organizer
      10th International Workshop in Marine Environmental Changes
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling2019

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, M. Kimoto
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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