A comprehensive study on methodologies of statistical modeling and inference for Hawks-type point process and applications

• Project/Area Number: 19H04073
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 60030:Statistical science-related
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Zhuang Jiancang 統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 准教授 (70465920)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥6,630,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,530,000)
• Keywords: Hawkes 過程 / ETASモデル / フィルタリング / 地震活動 / 確率再構築法 / 更新Hawkes過程 / Hawkes点過程 / 統計地震学 / 水道管破損 / Hawkes過程 / 球面ETASモデル / セミパラメトリック / 臨界特性 / 欠測事象 / セミパラメトリック推定 / EMアルゴリズム algorithm / 更新Hawkes点過程 / 地震予測 / 犯罪データ解析 / ノンパラメトリック推定 / 診断解析法 / 欠測データ / 臨界性

Outline of Research at the Start

点過程は不規則事象発生の統計的分析と予測に広く用いられている。なかでもHawkes の自励過程は最近になって急速に多くの分野で普及が進んでいる確率モデルである。Hawkes 過程が，続発性，クラスター現象や相互誘発作用の記述と解析に威力を発揮する線形の基本的モデルであることが広く認められたからである。本研究では多分野において統計的に対処する問題，たとえば欠測（欠落）事象を含む膨大な量の不均質ビッグデータの予測・分析など，解決すべき共通ニーズに焦点を合わせ研究・開発をすすめる。さらに，高次元の点過程データに対して並列・高速計算が可能な統計的モデルの構築と解析のための統計手法を開発することである。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Focusing on the developments of the common needs related to Hawkes process,this project has developed and implemented likelihood ratios based on filtering techniques for statistical inference of renewal Hawkes processes, in both closed form and MCMC algorithms. In seismicity application, we extended the space-time ETAS model to incorporate with focal mechanisms, where the response function for focal mechanisms is estimated nonparametrically by using the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to the Hi-net earthquake catalog. The critical theory of extreme events for the generalized ETAS model and its implications for the study of foreshocks and earthquake swarms are summarized and clarified. Furthermore, we have implemented a spherical version of the ETAS model and released the software. The new version is useful for analyzing global seismicity or seismicity in high-altitude region.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

Hawkes 過程は，外的な原因による影響と過去の事象によって誘発・励起される構造によって確率ルールに従って，将来の事象の発生に影響を及ぼす効果を表現するのに向いている。このモデルは事象間の集中化効果（正の相互作用）や潜在的な因果関係を解析するために役立つ線形の基本的なモデルと認識されるようになった。本プロジェクトはHawkes 型点過程の統計モデルを一般的かつ柔軟に様々なアプリケーション分野でのモデリング，診断分析，予測のための準備ツールに資し、予測・検証システム構築と迅速な推定の一般的フレームワークを提供した。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] University of California, Davis(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] UNSW(オーストラリア)
• [Int'l Joint Research] 中国地震局地球物理研究所/北京大学/中国科学院大学(中国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University Jaume I(スペイン)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Universitat Jaume I(スペイン)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Western University(カナダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] INGV/CNR-IMATI(イタリア)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Otago University/GNS/Statistical Research Associates(ニュージーランド)
• [Journal Article] Detection and Characterization of Earthquake Swarms in Nankai and Its Association With Slow Slip Events (2023)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhang Huai
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 128 Issue: 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2022jb025984
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] SETAS: A Spherical Version of the Space-Time ETAS Model (2023)
  • Author(s): Xiong Ziyao、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 94 Pages: 1676-1688
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220220198
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The debate on the earthquake magnitude correlations: a meta-analysis (2022)
  • Author(s): Petrillo Giuseppe、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 20683-20683
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An updated version of the ETAS model based on multiple change points detection (2022)
  • Author(s): Benali Amel、Zhuang Jiancang、Talbi Abdelhak
  • Journal Title: Acta Geophysica Volume: 70 Issue: 5 Pages: 2013-2031
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11600-022-00863-y
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Statistical Seismology (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Encyclopedia of Mathematical Geosciences. Encyclopeida of Earth Sciences Series Volume: NA Pages: 1-15
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-26050-7_34-1
  • ISBN: 9783030260507
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] A Simultaneous Estimation of the Baseline Intensity and Parameters for Modulated Renewal Processes (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Siew Hai-Yen
  • Journal Title: Axioms Volume: 11 Issue: 7 Pages: 303-303
  • DOI: 10.3390/axioms11070303
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies (2021)
  • Author(s): Pei Weilai、Zhou Shiyong、Zhuang Jiancang、Xiong Ziyao、Piao Jian
  • Journal Title: Science China Earth Sciences Volume: 65 Issue: 2 Pages: 257-268
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11430-021-9824-0
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Stress Transfer Along the Western Boundary of the Bayan Har Block on the Tibet Plateau From the 2008 to 2020 Yutian Earthquake Sequence in China (2021)
  • Author(s): Jia Ke、Zhou Shiyong、Zhuang Jiancang、Jiang Changsheng
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Issue: 15
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021gl094125
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Heterogeneity of Aftershock Productivity Along the Mainshock Ruptures and Its Advantage in Improving Short‐Term Aftershock Forecast (2021)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhang Huai
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 126 Issue: 4
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020jb020494
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan (2021)
  • Author(s): Hsu Ya-Ju、Kao Honn、Burgmann Roland、Lee Ya-Ting、Huang Hsin-Hua、Hsu Yu-Fang、Wu Yih-Min、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Science Advances Volume: 7 Issue: 16
  • DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf7282
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 「特集 Hawkes 過程の新展開と応用」について (2021)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉、小山 慎介、野村 俊一
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 Volume: 2 Pages: 121-122
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] 統計地震学におけるETASモデル：その進展とホークス型モデル (2021)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉、尾形 良彦
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 Volume: 2 Pages: 145-163
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] 時空間ETASモデルの拡張バージョンとその応用 (2021)
  • Author(s): 郭 一村、庄 建倉
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 Volume: 2 Pages: 223-237
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: Inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling (2021)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Matsu’ura Mitsuhiro、Han Peng
  • Journal Title: The European Physical Journal Special Topics Volume: 230 Issue: 1 Pages: 409-424
  • DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000272-7
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Background Seismicity before and after the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan Earthquake: Is Its Aftershock Sequence Still Continuing? (2020)
  • Author(s): Liu Yue、Zhuang Jiancang、Jiang Changsheng
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 92 Issue: 2A Pages: 877-885
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220200179
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Model checking for hidden Markov models (2020)
  • Author(s): Buckby Jodie、Wang Ting、Zhuang Jiancang、Obara Kazushige
  • Journal Title: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 1-31
  • DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2020.1743295
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Nonstationary Background Seismicity Rate and Evolution of Stress Changes in the Changning Salt Mining and Shale-Gas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin, China (2020)
  • Author(s): Jia Ke、Zhou Shiyong、Zhuang Jiancang、Jiang Changsheng、Guo Yicun、Gao Zhaohui、Gao Shesheng、Ogata Yosihiko、Song Xiaodong
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 91 Issue: 4 Pages: 2170-2181
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220200092
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000?2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences (2020)
  • Author(s): Han Peng、Zhuang Jiancang、Hattori Katsumi、Chen Chieh-Hung、Febriani Febty、Chen Hongyan、Yoshino Chie、Yoshida Shuji
  • Journal Title: Entropy Volume: 22 Issue: 8 Pages: 859-859
  • DOI: 10.3390/e22080859
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Topological Comparison Between the Stochastic and the Nearest‐Neighbor Earthquake Declustering Methods Through Network Analysis (2020)
  • Author(s): Varini Elisa、Peresan Antonella、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 125 Issue: 8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020jb019718
• [Journal Article] A New Method for Imaging Seismic Quiescence and Its Application to the Mw?=?8.3 Kurile Islands Earthquake on 15 November 2006 (2020)
  • Author(s): Katsumata Kei、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Pure and Applied Geophysics Volume: 177 Issue: 8 Pages: 3619-3630
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02498-w
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Approximate Uncertain Program (2019)
  • Author(s): Shen Xun、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhang Xingguo
  • Journal Title: IEEE Access Volume: 7 Pages: 182357-182365
  • DOI: 10.1109/access.2019.2958621
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Modeling and Forecasting Aftershocks Can Be Improved by Incorporating Rupture Geometry in the ETAS Model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo Yicun、Zhuang Jiancang、Ogata Yosihiko
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 46 Issue: 22 Pages: 12881-12889
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084775
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong Ziyao、Zhuang Jiancang、Zhou Shiyong
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 109 Issue: 6 Pages: 2340-2355
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120190066
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata、Y..
  • Journal Title: Nature Communications Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-11
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seismological Investigations of Induced Earthquakes Near the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage Facility (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhou Pengcheng、Yang Hongfeng、Wang Baoshan、Zhuang Jiancang
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 124 Issue: 8 Pages: 8753-8770
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019jb017360
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimation of near-surface density based on gravity Bayesian analysis and its application in Yunnan area (2019)
  • Author(s): Niu YuanYuan、Guo LiangHui、Shi Lei、Chen Shi、Zhuang JianCang
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics Volume: 62 Pages: 2101-2114
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] A semiparametric spatiotemporal Hawkes-type point process model with periodic background for crime data (2018)
  • Author(s): Zhuang Jiancang、Mateu Jorge
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 919-942
  • DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12429
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Statistics Across Campuses Seminar, UNSW シドニー, オーストラリア (ハイブリッド開催)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Bayesian merging of earthquake catalogs from multiple sources (2022)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉, 司 政亜
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] The research and application of the spherical space-time ETAS model (2022)
  • Author(s): 熊 子瑶, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Verification of Seismic Gap by means of physical and statistical models (2022)
  • Author(s): Petrillo, G.*, Zhuang, J. and Lippiello, E.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Second-order smoothness prior over the Delaunay Tessellation and its application to gravity Bayesian inversion (2022)
  • Author(s): 牛 源源*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Evaluating earthquake forecasts with likelihood based marginal and conditional scores (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: StatSei12, IESC コルシカ(仏)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] The research on the spherical space-time ETAS model (2022)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z
  • Organizer: StatSei12, IESC コルシカ(仏)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 地震活動による点過程モデルの改良：残差解析からの学習 (2022)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2022年度統計関連学会連合大会, 成蹊大学(ハイブリッド開催)
  • Invited
• [Presentation] On statistical methods applied to recent earthquake swarms (2022)
  • Author(s): 熊澤 貴雄*, 尾形 良彦
  • Organizer: 2022年度統計関連学会連合大会, 成蹊大学(ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] A spherical version of the space-time ETAS model (2022)
  • Author(s): 熊 子瑶*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2022年度統計関連学会連合大会, 成蹊大学(ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] Bayesian earthquake forecasts based on the ETAS model (2022)
  • Author(s): Petrillo Giuseppe*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2022年度統計関連学会連合大会, 成蹊大学(ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] Second-order smoothness prior over the Delaunay Tessellation and application on gravity Bayesian inversion (2022)
  • Author(s): 牛 源源*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2022年度統計関連学会連合大会, 成蹊大学(ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] Stochastic Reconstruction: A Data-driven Method for Extending and Estimating Seismicity Clustering Models (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: AOGS2022 VIRTUAL, 19th Annual Meeting Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Refining the ETAS model: non-stationary background rate, hypocentral depth, source rupture geometry, and focal mechanism (2022)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ (ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] Point-process modelling of earthquakes incorporating ULF seismo-magnetic anomalies (2022)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Chen, H., Zhuang, J., Hattori K.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ (ハイブリッド開催)
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 階層型時空間ETASと時空間ポアソン過程モデルによる日本内陸部の地震発生確率の予測と検証 (2022)
  • Author(s): 尾形 良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ (ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] 非定常ETASモデルで捉える能登半島群発地震活動の地域的変化 (2022)
  • Author(s): 熊澤 貴雄*, 尾形 良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ (ハイブリッド開催)
• [Presentation] The research and application of the spherical spacetime ETAS model (2022)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.* and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ (ハイブリッド開催)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Everything you always wanted to know about b-value* (*but were afraid to ask) (2022)
  • Author(s): Taroni, M.*, Selva, J., Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: European Geoscience Union(EGU) General Assembly 2022, Austria Center Vienna (ACV) (ハイブリッド開催)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extensions of the spatiotemporal ETAS model and their applications (2021)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所共同利用研究集会「地震活動の統計モデルと物理的意味」, オンライン開催
  • Invited
• [Presentation] ETASモデルの発展 (2021)
  • Author(s): 尾形 良彦
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所共同利用研究集会「地震活動の統計モデルと物理的意味」, オンライン開催
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake forecasts for the Italy and California regions based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering (2021)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2021 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)(米国地球物理学連合2021年秋季大会), Online
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended ETAS model by incorporating focal mechanisms (2021)
  • Author(s): Maita, E. and Zhuang, J.*
  • Organizer: 2021 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)(米国地球物理学連合2021年秋季大会), Online
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The research of spherical time-space ETAS model (2021)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.* and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2021 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)(米国地球物理学連合2021年秋季大会), Online
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modified estimation and forecasting of the hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) model for earthquake catalogs in a wide area possessing long- and short-term incompleteness (2021)
  • Author(s): Ogata, Y.*, Katsura, K.
  • Organizer: 2021 Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Annual Meeting, Online
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A filtering formula for the renewal Hawkes process (2021)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2021年度統計関連学会連合大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] A study on the spherical space-time ETAS model (2021)
  • Author(s): 熊 子瑶*, 庄 建倉, 尾形 良彦
  • Organizer: 2021年度統計関連学会連合大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] 気象庁地震カタログの時空間的検出率の長期的変遷と大地震直後の欠測率の推定 (2021)
  • Author(s): 尾形 良彦*, 桂 康一
  • Organizer: 2021年度統計関連学会連合大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] 時空間ETASモデルの球面バージョン (2021)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 熊 子瑶, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] Assessing the potential earthquake precursory information in ULF magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000 - 2010: distance and magnitude dependences (2021)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Hattori, K., Chen, C-H., Febriani, F. and Chen, H.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimating the crustal strain-rate fields from GNSS data and application to data from Mainland China (2021)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.* and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] 地震カタログの時空間的非均質性のモデルと適用 (2021)
  • Author(s): 尾形良彦*, 桂 康一
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] 長野・岐阜・福井県境付近の群発地震活動の統計解析とその特徴について (2021)
  • Author(s): 熊澤貴雄*, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会, オンライン開催
• [Presentation] Crustal strain-rate fields estimated from GNSS data with a Bayesian approach and its correlation to seismic activity (2021)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.* and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: uropean Geoscience Union(EGU) General Assembly 2021: Gather Online
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Incorporating focal mechanisms into the ETAS model (2020)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 2020 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Model Improvement Through Residual Analysis (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2020年度科学研究費シンポジウム「大規模複雑データの理論と方法論：最前線の動向と新たな展開」
• [Presentation] Decimating Nonlinear Response in State Space Models for Battery Capacity Estimation (2020)
  • Author(s): 沈 迅*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2020年度科学研究費シンポジウム「大規模複雑データの理論と方法論：最前線の動向と新たな展開」
• [Presentation] 震源機構を組み込んだETASモデル (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 蒔田恵理
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2020年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] An ETAS model incorporated with focal mechanisms (2020)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 2020 Annual Meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Testing foreshock hypothesis against the ETAS model: why is it so difficult? (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020: Virtual
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Maita, Eri*, 庄 建倉 (2020). The character of the Focal mechanisms with Kagan angles in Japan area for the extended 2-D ETAS model (2020)
  • Author(s): Maita, Eri*, 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020: Virtual
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign (2020)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 固体地球データ同化に関する研究会
• [Presentation] Estimation, Diagnostics, and Extensions of Nonparametric Hawkes Processes with Kernel Functions (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)シンポジウム「統計的推測および確率解析に関する総合的研究」
• [Presentation] Spatiotemporal Evolution of Background Seismicity Rate and Stress Changes Inverted from Seismic Catalog in Changning Shalegas Hydraulic Fracturing Region, Sichuan Basin of China, (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K., Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial Heterogeneity of the Aftershock Productivity of the Kumamoto Earthquake Modeled by the Finite Source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimating the strain rate from GPS Velocity observations and application to data from Mainland China (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Spatial heterogeneity of aftershock productivity on the Kumamoto earthquake rupture modeled by the finite source ETAS model (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] A filtering formula for the conditional intensity of the renewal Hawkes process (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
• [Presentation] Satiotemporal evolution of background seismicity rate and stress changes inverted from seismic catalog in Changning region, Sichuan Basin of China (2019)
  • Author(s): Jia, K.*, Zhou, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Operational earthquake forecast incorporating multiple geophysical data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Bayesian Inference on the Magnitude of the Largest Expected Earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Shcherbakov, R.*, Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Declustering algorithms and network theory for the topological inspection of earthquake sequences (2019)
  • Author(s): Varini, E.*, Peresan, A. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue (2019)
  • Author(s): Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Maita, E.
  • Organizer: 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉*, 蒔田恵理
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data (2019)
  • Author(s): Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence (2019)
  • Author(s): Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Data missing in the Chichi earthquake sequence and stochastic replenishment (2019)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2019 Taiwan Geosciences Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Capturing the complexity of earthquake sequences by different methods (2019)
  • Author(s): Peresan, A.*, Varini, E. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments (2019)
  • Author(s): Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Strader, A., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., Zhuang, J. and Savran, W.
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union(EGU) General Assembly 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] Explaining foreshock and the Bath law using a generic earthquake clustering model, in Statistical Methods and modelling of seismogenesis, edited by Limnios, N., Papadimitriou, E. and Tsaklidis, G., ISTE (2020)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J
  • Publisher: ISTE
  • ISBN: 9781789450378
• [Remarks] Analyzing seismic patterns to forecast ...
  • URL: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/rooi-asp120119.php