気候変動に伴う河川生態系のリスク評価：統計モデルとメソコスム実験の融合
| Project/Area Number |
19H04314
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Review Section |
Basic Section 64040:Social-ecological systems-related
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
G・MOLINOS JORGE 北海道大学, 北極域研究センター, 准教授 (30767281)
|
|---|
| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
石山 信雄 地方独立行政法人北海道立総合研究機構, 森林研究本部 林業試験場, 研究主任 (50780821)
末吉 正尚 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 研究員 (70792927)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2022)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥17,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,960,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 気候変動 / 河川生態系 / 水温予測 / 種間関係 / メソコスム実験 |
|---|
| Outline of Research at the Start |
昨今、温暖化の生物多様性への深刻な影響が懸念されている。しかし、信頼度および汎用性の高い水温予測手法は確立されておらず、他の系に比べ淡水生態系での温暖化影響の検証・予測は遅れている。また、既存研究の多くは温暖化の生物への影響を種レベルの観点からしか評価しておらず、種分布や環境の組み合わせが変化する将来において、群集構造や生態系機能がどう変化していくか未知の部分が多い。本研究では、水温モデリング、種分布モデリング、および野外操作実験を統合し、種・群集・生態系と多様なレベルでの温暖化の河川生態系への影響を予測する手法の開発、また本手法を用いた全国スケールで河川生態系の温暖化リスク評価を実施する。
|
| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Three of the four study catchments could be visited to retrieve temperature data from the first year, conduct maintenance, and sample biological parameters at multiple sites (fish: 27 sites sampled, macroinvertebrates: 22 sites, benthic algae: 70 sites).
Initial data analysis between temperature data and environmental predictors showed water temperature regimes in volcanic mountain streams had average summer temperatures ~3°C lower than non-volcanic streams at similar altitudinal and air temperature ranges. They also had higher abundances of Cottus nozawae, a cold-adapted fish. These results highlight the important role of volcanic geology in providing thermal refugia for sensitive biota under climate change. Presented at ESJ annual meeting.
The project also engaged in international collaboration:
(i) An experiment conducted in the Hokkaido University Tomakomai Experimental Forest with researchers from Trinity College (Ireland) showed that heatwaves destabilised benthic stream communities by homogenising them in space but only when fish predators were absent, highlighting the potential for species extinctions to amplify the effects of climate change and extreme events. Presented at ESJ annual meeting.
(ii) An experiment lead by researchers from the Institute of Hydrobiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (published Env Int IF9.62 and MethodsX IF1.84) evidenced complex interactions of warming and nutrient enrichment in altering growth and phenology of Potamogeton crispus, a widespread freshwater macrophyte common in Japan.
|
| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Persistent COVID-19 restrictions experienced over the field season caused inevitable delays and cancellations of the planned field work. As a result, access to the fourth catchment (Hiji River) was impossible this year and the planned biological sampling could not be completed in the other river catchments. These pending tasks have been carried over into FY2021. Preliminary statistical models for prediction of water temperatures were tested this year but further refinement of the models and their coupling with biological data will need to wait until all catchments can be visited and the temperature and biological data collection is completed.
|
| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
Altogether, despite the current delays caused to the original implementation plan, the project is still in course to meet its objectives. FY2021 will carry on with the collection of temperature data and completion of the remaining biological sampling, including that carried over from FY2020. Statistical models for prediction of water temperatures will be further refined with the new data collected and combined with biological data to assess relationships between water temperatures and the distribution and composition of aquatic species. However, further adjustments might be required if the disruptions caused by COVID-19 continues throughout FY2021, which may lead to changes in the objectives and deliverables. As a contingency measure, the project will continue to engage in international collaborations to provide alternative routes for meeting project objectives.
|
Report
(2 results)
Research Products
(8 results)
