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Risk assessment of the regional impact of the China "One-Belt-One-Road" (OBOR) project

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H04362
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 80010:Area studies-related
Research InstitutionRakuno Gakuen University

Principal Investigator

星野 仏方  酪農学園大学, 農食環境学群, 教授 (80438366)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 保原 達  酪農学園大学, 農食環境学群, 教授 (70391159)
中谷 暢丈  酪農学園大学, 農食環境学群, 教授 (90423350)
松井 佳世  京都大学, 東南アジア地域研究研究所, 研究員 (10814189)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,960,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Keywords一帯一路(BRI) / BRIとオアシス農業 / BRIアンダーパス / BRIのリスク評価 / 国際ネットワークの構築 / カザフスタン / オアシス農業 / インフラ投資 / リモートセンシング / 表土損失 / ジャルケント地区 / トウモロコシ栽培 / 一帯一路 / 中国の影響 / 地域コミュニティ / 分断 / 生態系 / ジャルケント / 中国一帯一路 / BRIの影響 / オアシス農業変遷 / 中央アジアの水と食料の安全 / 環境開発リスク評価 / カザフスタン共和国 / リスク評価 / "一帯一路"プロジェクト / OBOR / 地域社会 / リスクアセスメント / 中国
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究は中国政府が2014年に開始した「一帯一路」(One-Belt-One-Road, 以下OBOR)の開発による攪乱が進む乾燥地域において地域環境影響評価モデルの構築と環境修復政策の提案を目指す。具体的には現地調査と高解像度衛星写真、UAV空撮などの手法を用いて、OBORの中継拠点であるカザフスタン共和国のKhorgas Dry Port地域において、「表土の損失調査」・「水質・土壌調査」及び「高解像度OBORベースマップの構築」の三つの柱を中心に定量化プロセスによって、ベースマップの作成、基本データの収集を行い、リスクアセスメントを実施し、世界的発信する。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

2022年度は中国「一帯一路(BRI)」のインフラ整備と投資プロジェクトによる中央アジアオアシス農業への影響と食の安心・安全へのリスク評価の一部成果をまとめ、いくつかの国際会議(COSPAR2022, IGARSS2022, GeoEnv2022)の場で公表した。また、2019年に実施した調査、つまりカザフスタンアルマトイ州パンフィロフ地区で(ジャルケント市を中心に)中国のBRI関連投資による農地拡大に伴い過去に廃棄された一部のオアシス農地が再墾され、再開墾された土地にトウモロコシの栽培が行われている状況を論文化した(英語とロシア語でCentral Asia's Affairs 88(4)に2022年12月15日公表した)。中国政府が片手で農業への投資を増やし、それによってトウモロコシ畑が拡大されオアシスがどんどん開墾され、一方ではカザフスタン境内のBRI沿線でインフラへの投資によって農地面積が減少している。この矛盾とも言える二つの真逆な投資行為によってイリ川とウスク川のオアシスが著しく縮小している。その結果をJournal of Arid land Studies, 32(S), 2022に公表した。GIS(地理情報システム)とリモートセンシング技術を用いてBRI沿線の土地利用の変遷の空間データベースを作成しました。そのほか、採集した土壌と水質の化学分析を進めて論文化する準備をしています。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

2022年度は予定通りに今までの一部の研究成果を論文化することができて、また国際会議で公表した。GIS(地理情報システム)上で「一帯一路BRI」沿線の土地利用のデータベースを作成し、またBRI全線マップも完成した。国際共同研究を展開し、国際ネットワークの構築の準備に着手している。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

最終年度の2023年度は主にBRIのアンダーパスが家畜・野生動物の移動、および地域のコミュニティの分断への影響を明らかにするために現地調査を行います。現地調査とインタビューを通して、BRIがオアシスの野生動植物の生態系、および地域住民の生活や生産への影響を明らかにする。また水質と土壌の分析結果を公表する予定です。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (32 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (6 results) Journal Article (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 12 results,  Peer Reviewed: 12 results,  Open Access: 12 results) Presentation (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Invited: 3 results) Book (3 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oxford/the School of Geography and Environment(英国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Johns Hopkins University/School of Arts and Sciences(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Al-Farabi Kazakh National University/Department of Biology(カザフスタン)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] カザフスタン国立総合大学/カザフスタン国立農業大学(カザフスタン)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] オックスフォード大学地理学院(英国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] チューリッヒ大学Social Anthropology(スイス)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on change and losing of Central Asian oases agricultural land2022

    • Author(s)
      Kazuki SENO, Christopher MCCARTHY, Maira KUSSAINOVA, Sabir NURTAZIN, Mikoto KANEKO, Nobutake NAKATANI, Satoru HOBARA, James BANFILL, Buho HOSHINO
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Arid Land Studies

      Volume: 32 Issue: S Pages: 53-60

    • DOI

      10.14976/jals.32.S_53

    • ISSN
      0917-6985, 2189-1761
    • Year and Date
      2022-12-30
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN CORN FARMLAND, SOUTHEAS KAZAKHSTAN: REPORT FROM KAZAKHSTAN AND CHINA BORDER2022

    • Author(s)
      Fuki Yagi, Maira Kussainova, Buho Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Central Asia's Affairs

      Volume: 4(88) Issue: 4 Pages: 23-34

    • DOI

      10.52536/2788-5909.2022-4.02

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Preserving the Gobi: Identifying potential UNESCO world heritage in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert2022

    • Author(s)
      McCarthy Christopher、Sternberg Troy、Hoshino Buho、Banfill James、Enkhjargal Erdenebuyan、Konagaya Yuki、Phillips Simon
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity

      Volume: 15 Issue: 4 Pages: 500-517

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.japb.2022.08.003

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Remote Sensing Approach for the Appearance and Disappearance of Oasis Farmland in Kazakhstan2022

    • Author(s)
      Hoshino Buho、Seno Kazuki、Kussainova Maira、Nakatani Nobutake、Hobara Satoru
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Xplore

      Volume: 2022 Pages: 3668-3671

    • DOI

      10.1109/igarss46834.2022.9883402

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] National Parks, Protected Areas and Biodiversity Conservation in North Korea: Opportunities for International Collaboration2021

    • Author(s)
      Christopher McCarthy, James Banfill, Buho Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity

      Volume: 2021(3) Issue: 3 Pages: 1-25

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.japb.2021.05.006

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Microtopographical Characteristics of Forest Dieback in a Semi-Arid Region Retrieved from Ground and Satellite Data2021

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino*, Daishi Matsukawa, Takashi Sasamura, Tserendulam Tserenochir, Uuganbayar Ganbold, Christopher McCarthy, Masami Kaneko, Atsuko Sugimoto
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Xplore

      Volume: 2021(1) Pages: 6735-6738

    • DOI

      10.1109/igarss47720.2021.9554115

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Bacterial Characteristics of Dust Particle Saltation in Gobi Dust Sites, Mongolia2021

    • Author(s)
      Katsuro Hagiwara, Tamaki Matsumoto, Purevsuren Tsedendamba, Kenji Baba, Buho Hoshino
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 12(11) Issue: 11 Pages: 1456-1456

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos12111456

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Threaten Food Security in Central Asia?2020

    • Author(s)
      Sternberg Troy、McCarthy Chris、Hoshino Buho
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 12 Issue: 10 Pages: 2690-2690

    • DOI

      10.3390/w12102690

    • NAID

      120007193532

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Water and Land as Shared Resources for Agriculture and Aquaculture: Insights from Asia2020

    • Author(s)
      Pueppke Steven G.、Nurtazin Sabir、Ou Weixin
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 12 Issue: 10 Pages: 2787-2787

    • DOI

      10.3390/w12102787

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Pastoral Farming in the Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, under Decreasing Water Inflow: An Economic Assessment2020

    • Author(s)
      Baranowski Elisabeth、Thevs Niels、Khalil Altyn、Baibagyssov Azim、Iklassov Margulan、Salmurzauli Ruslan、Nurtazin Sabir、Beckmann Volker
    • Journal Title

      Agriculture

      Volume: 10 Issue: 7 Pages: 281-281

    • DOI

      10.3390/agriculture10070281

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Biomass Resources of Phragmites australis in Kazakhstan: Historical Developments, Utilization, and Prospects2020

    • Author(s)
      Baibagyssov Azim、Thevs Niels、Nurtazin Sabir、Waldhardt Rainer、Beckmann Volker、Salmurzauly Ruslan
    • Journal Title

      Resources

      Volume: 9 Issue: 6 Pages: 74-74

    • DOI

      10.3390/resources9060074

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Quality of Drinking Water in the Balkhash District of Kazakhstan’s Almaty Region2020

    • Author(s)
      Nurtazin Sabir、Pueppke Steven、Ospan Temirkhan、Mukhitdinov Azamat、Elebessov Timur
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 12 Issue: 2 Pages: 392-392

    • DOI

      10.3390/w12020392

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Remote sensing approach for evaluation of the impact of the China's BRI project on food security in Kazakhstan2022

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      COSPAR Athens 2022 (アメリカ宇宙学会の年会)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] REMOTE SENSING APPROACH FOR THE APPEARANCE AND DISAPPEARANCE OF OASIS FARMLAND IN KAZAKHSTAN2022

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      IEEE The International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Remote Sensing in the Emergence and Disappearance of Oasis Farmlands in Central Asia2022

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      geoENV
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 中央アジアのオアシス農業の変遷2021

    • Author(s)
      瀬野佳月, 星野仏方
    • Organizer
      第5回「中央アジア牧畜社会動態研究」研究大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動と政策に左右される中央アジアのオアシス農業研究2021

    • Author(s)
      瀬野佳月, 星野仏方
    • Organizer
      本沙漠学会2021年 第32回学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Does China's Belt and Road Initiative affect oasis agriculture in Central Asia?2021

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      he DT XIV International Conference on Arid Land
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment in China's Belt and Road Project in Kazakhstan and its Risk Assessment2021

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      The 3rd World Conference on Research in Social Sciences
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Environment risk assessment of China OBOR (BRI) project developed in Kazakhstan -The case study of the vulnerability assessments of oases agriculture in Zharkent region2020

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Organizer
      V International Agritechnological Summit
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 中国一帯一路(OBOR)プロジェクトのカザフスタンでの展開とそのリスク2019

    • Author(s)
      星野仏方
    • Organizer
      国際シンポジウム:「一帯一路OBOR」 アフロ・ユーラシア内陸乾燥地文明論から考える
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 13TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GEOSTATISTICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS2021

    • Author(s)
      Andrea Zanini & Marco D’Oria Editors
    • Total Pages
      142
    • Publisher
      Youcanprint
    • ISBN
      9791220341592
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 沙漠学事典2020

    • Author(s)
      星野仏方(日本沙漠学会編集)
    • Total Pages
      504
    • Publisher
      丸善出版
    • ISBN
      9784621305171
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Cultures of Water Management Editors: Nawata, Hiroshi, Taniguchi, Makoto (Eds.)2019

    • Author(s)
      Buho Hoshino
    • Total Pages
      235
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9784431542131
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] POST-PANDEMIC SOCIETIES IN INNER ASIA

    • URL

      https://www.ppia.ouce.ox.ac.uk/team/

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] ResearchMap

    • URL

      https://researchmap.jp/read0155135

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2023-12-25  

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