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Extreme event analysis and risk assessment for cryptocurrency time series

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K01738
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionInternational Christian University

Principal Investigator

PICHL Lukas  国際基督教大学, 教養学部, 上級准教授 (10343394)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywordscryptocurrency analysis / deep learning / extreme event prediction / machine learning
Outline of Research at the Start

In economics, Bitcoin is an asset that is difficult to categorize: on one hand, it has the features of a currency, providing anonymous transaction opportunities, on the other hand, legislation in various countries considers it a digital commodity. Bitcoin prices are known to wildly fluctuate, offering high profits as well as substantial losses within a short period of time. The key scientific question we study here is about the market efficiency and volatility prediction, i.e. whether we can predict them by any algorithm, especially using machine learning and recent deep learning algorithms.

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2019-07-17  

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