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Studies on the basic reproduction number in structured population dynamics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K03614
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 12040:Applied mathematics and statistics-related
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Inaba Hisashi  東京大学, 大学院数理科学研究科, 教授 (80282531)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords感染症数理モデル / 基本再生産数 / 閾値現象 / 世代推進作用素 / 後退分岐 / 免疫ブースト / 検査と隔離 / COVID-19 / 年齢構造 / 異質性 / 免疫時計 / 感染症モデル / 実効再生産数 / 検査 / 隔離 / アロンモデル / SIRSモデル / 世代発展作用素 / 閾値条件 / 構造化個体群
Outline of Research at the Start

時間変動環境における個体群に対する基本再生産数の理論を発展させて,非自律的非線形系で表現される集団の絶滅と存続の条件を明らかにする.とくに周期系に対しては周期解の存在と安定性の条件が基本再生産数によって定式化されることを示す.ついで,離散同次非線形系に対する既存の理論を連続時間系へ拡張して,一次同次非線形系に対する基本再生産数理論を構成して,両性人口モデルや性的感染症モデルへ適用する.さらに時間変動環境における同次モデルに対する基本再生産数理論の拡張を図る.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we extended the theory of basic reproduction number, a key concept in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, to general time-varying environments. We proved that the R0 plays a role as a threshold value for disease invasion and extinction in time-heterogeneous environments. For time-periodic systems, it can be shown that the supercritical condition R0>1 implies the existence of a positive periodic solution. Second, we extended the Aron model to include the effects of decaying and boosting host immunity, and showed its basic properties and the possibility of subcritical endemic steady state. Third, we developed an epidemic model to consider the effects of massive testing and quarantine, and proved that social distance, massive testing, and quarantine are effective methods for controlling the epidemic of COVID-19.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

感染症数理モデルは感染症の流行動態を理解し,流行抑止の方法を考えていくための科学的基礎である.感染症数理モデルを利用することによって,新型コロナ流行においてみられたように,ワクチンや治療薬が未整備の段階で社会的介入によって流行を制御するための有効な手段を検討したり,流行の動向を見通すことが可能になる.本研究では,基礎理論の開発とともに,大量検査と隔離によって新型コロナの流行を抑制する可能性を検討した.社会的距離政策のもとで、実効再生産数を計算することによって、検査率が上昇するとともに急速に実効再生産数が低下することが示され,現実的に実行可能性のある検査頻度で流行が抑制されることが示された.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (31 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Peer Reviewed: 13 results,  Open Access: 10 results) Presentation (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 7 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Florida(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] IRD(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] A systematic procedure for incorporating separable static heterogeneity into compartmental epidemic models2023

    • Author(s)
      Odo Diekmann and Hisashi Inaba
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Mathematical Biology

      Volume: 86 Issue: 2

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00285-023-01865-0

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] An age-structured epidemic model with boosting and waning of immune status2021

    • Author(s)
      K. Okuwa, H. Inaba and T. Kuniya
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

      Volume: 18(5) Issue: 5 Pages: 5707-5736

    • DOI

      10.3934/mbe.2021289

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evolution of heterogeneity under constant and variable environments2021

    • Author(s)
      R. Oizumi and H. Inaba
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 16(9) Issue: 9 Pages: e0257377-e0257377

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0257377

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Un modele mathematique pour une transition demographique partielle2021

    • Author(s)
      Nicolas Bacaer, Hisashi Inaba and Ali Moussaoui
    • Journal Title

      Revue Africaine de la Recherche en Informatique et Mathematiques Appliquees

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] De nouvelles proprietes du pic epidemique2021

    • Author(s)
      Nicolas Bacaer, Fredric Hamelin and Hisashi Inaba
    • Journal Title

      Quadra-ture, EDP Sciences

      Volume: 119

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Un modele mathematique pour une transition demographique partielle2021

    • Author(s)
      Nicolas Bacaer, Hisashi Inaba and Ali Moussaoui
    • Journal Title

      ARIMA

      Volume: 32

    • DOI

      10.46298/arima.6713

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Developments of Basic Reproduction Number Theory2020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉 寿
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of the Japan Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

      Volume: 30 Issue: 1 Pages: 14-21

    • DOI

      10.11540/bjsiam.30.1_14

    • NAID

      130007867123

    • ISSN
      2432-1982
    • Year and Date
      2020-03-25
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Recent developments in mathematical demography2020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿・高田壮則
    • Journal Title

      The Journal of Population Studies

      Volume: 56 Issue: 0 Pages: 51-59

    • DOI

      10.24454/jps.2003004

    • NAID

      130007937446

    • ISSN
      0386-8311, 2424-2489
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Lyapunov-Schmidt method for detecting backward bifurcation in age-structured population models2020

    • Author(s)
      M. Martcheva and H. Inaba
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Biological Dynamics

      Volume: 14(1) Issue: 1 Pages: 543-565

    • DOI

      10.1080/17513758.2020.1785024

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Possible effects of mixed prevention strategy for COVID-19 epidemic: massive testing, quarantine and social distancing2020

    • Author(s)
      T. Kuniya and H. Inaba
    • Journal Title

      AIMS Public Health

      Volume: 7(3) Issue: 3 Pages: 490-503

    • DOI

      10.3934/publichealth.2020040

    • NAID

      120006873056

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Should a viral genome stay in the host cell or leave? A quantitative dynamics study of how hepatitis C virus deals with this dilemma2020

    • Author(s)
      S. Iwanami, K. Kitagawa, H. Ohashi, Y. Asai, K. Shionoya, W. Saso, K. Nishioka, H. Inaba, S. Nakaoka, T. Wakita, O. Diekmann, S. Iwami and K. Watashi
    • Journal Title

      PLoS Biology

      Volume: 18(7) Issue: 7 Pages: 3000562-3000562

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pbio.3000562

    • NAID

      120006872724

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] マッケンドリック方程式奇譚2019

    • Author(s)
      稲葉 寿
    • Journal Title

      日本数理生物学会ニュースレター

      Volume: 89 Pages: 19-26

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Mathematical analysis for an age-structured SIRS epidemic model2019

    • Author(s)
      K. Okuwa, H. Inaba and T. Kuniya.
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Bisciences and Engineering

      Volume: 16(5) Issue: 5 Pages: 6071-6102

    • DOI

      10.3934/mbe.2019304

    • NAID

      120006715552

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The basic reproduction number R0 in time-heterogeneous environments2019

    • Author(s)
      H. Inaba
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Mathematical Biology

      Volume: 79 Issue: 2 Pages: 731-764

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00285-019-01375-y

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] COVID-19と感染症数理モデル2022

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿
    • Organizer
      武蔵野大学数理工学シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Age-structured epidemic models with boosting and waning of immune status2021

    • Author(s)
      Hisashi Inaba
    • Organizer
      Online International Symposium on Recent Trends in Differential Equations: Theory, Computation and Applications
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 感染症数理モデルとCOVID-19,2020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿
    • Organizer
      応用数理学会年会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 感染症の数理モデルとCOVID-192020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿
    • Organizer
      2020年度アクチュアリー会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 日本の人口減少の数学的構造~地域間移動と出生力差が示す人口動態への定量的影響~2020

    • Author(s)
      大泉嶺・稲葉寿・高田壮則
    • Organizer
      日本人口学第72回大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19と数理モデル解析2020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿
    • Organizer
      交通流数理研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Age-structured epidemic models with boosting and waning of immune status2020

    • Author(s)
      Hisashi Inaba
    • Organizer
      Modeling infectious disease: COVID-19 and beyond
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Age-structured SIS epidemic model in a periodic environment2019

    • Author(s)
      H. Inaba
    • Organizer
      Innovative Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Infectious Disease Data
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An age-structured epidemic model for the demographic transition2019

    • Author(s)
      H. Inaba
    • Organizer
      Computational and Mathematical Population Dynamics 5
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 人口転換の数理モデル2019

    • Author(s)
      稲葉 寿
    • Organizer
      日本人口学会第71回大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The basic reproduction number R0 in time-heterogeneous environments2019

    • Author(s)
      稲葉 寿
    • Organizer
      神楽坂「感染症にまつわる数理」勉強会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The basic reproduction number R0 in time-heterogeneous environments2019

    • Author(s)
      H. Inaba
    • Organizer
      The 7th China-India-Japan-Korea International Conference on Mathematical Biology
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Book] 数理人口学入門2022

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿
    • Total Pages
      241
    • Publisher
      森北出版
    • ISBN
      9784627083110
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 感染症の数理モデル 増補版2020

    • Author(s)
      稲葉寿(編著)
    • Total Pages
      342
    • Publisher
      培風館
    • ISBN
      9784563011673
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「感染る」2019

    • Author(s)
      赤江 雄一(編)/ 高橋 宣也(編)
    • Total Pages
      292
    • Publisher
      慶應義塾大学出版会
    • ISBN
      9784766426151
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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