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Research for optimal evacuation method based on probabilistic flood forecasting with enough lead time

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K04618
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

Kobayashi Kenichiro  神戸大学, 都市安全研究センター, 准教授 (60420402)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Keywords超多数アンサンブル / 高解像度浸水計算 / 富岳 / リードタイム / 確率洪水予報 / 2011年新潟福島洪水 / 2020年球磨川洪水 / 球磨川 / 浅水流方程式 / 風水害 / マルチエージェント避難モデル / 三宮市街地・地下街 / アンサンブル気象・洪水予測 / 令和2年7月九州豪雨 / 令和元年東日本台風 / 早期避難 / 洪水予測 / 避難勧告 / マルチエージェントモデル / 超多数アンサンブル降雨・洪水予測 / 洪水ダム / 分布型降雨流出・洪水氾濫モデル / 高潮・河川洪水複合風水害シミュレーション / 避難行動モデル / アンサンブル洪水予測 / 複合風水害シミュレーション / 最適避難行動 / 市民参加型
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では,風水害に対し半日程度以上の十分なリードタイムを持った予報が可能な場合における最適な避難行動のあり方を提案することを目標に,次の3つの研究テーマを実施する.1) 数百~数千アンサンブル降雨を利用した十分なリードタイムを持った洪水予報,2) 高潮・河川洪水複合風水害シミュレーション手法の開発,3) 災害時の住民の大規模避難数値実験と最適避難行動の解析.本研究では「高度な風水害予測が十分なリードタイムを持った避難勧告・指示を可能とし,住民の避難行動を最適化できる」ことを示すことを目標とする.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, the probabilistic flood forecastings were carried out using mega (more than 1000) ensemble simulations. 2011 July Fukushima-Niigata flooding and 2020 July Kumagawa flooding were selected as the test cases. As a result, it was shown that the flood forecasting based on probability in a real sense becomes possible by incraesing the number of ensemble members in the two cases. Likewise, the lead time for the evacuation can be increased to e.g. half day by the mega ensembles. In addition, the very high resolution (1-5m) inundation simulatiosn were carried out with Fugaku supercomputer which suceeded in showing the flood risk in details on the site frontage. Finally, the evacuation behaviour was investigated using multi-agent models. As a result, it was shown that the evacuation considering daily stress (e.g. disable, infectious diseases) becomes possible by having such long lead time.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

1000を超える超多数アンサンブルは短期洪水予測の観点からは世界初(あるいは世界初の一つ)であると考えており,アンサンブル数を増やすことにより,特に真の意味での確率洪水予測が可能になり,リードタイムを伸ばすことができた事例を示した.学術的に,気象のカオス現象を反映した洪水予測とは何かを示した事例として意義がある.また,超高解像度計算については,自身のグループで1m解像度標高を取得したことに加えて,最近では兵庫県域全域での1m標高データが公表されたため,今後実社会でも適用されていくと考える.十分なリードタイムがある場合は,社会的弱者や感染症にも配慮した避難が可能な事例についても示すことができた.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (22 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 14 results,  Open Access: 10 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Indonesian Institute of Sciences(インドネシア)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Ensemble rainfall-runoff and inundation simulations using 100 and 1000 member rainfalls by 4D LETKF on the Kumagawa River flooding 20202023

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi Kenichiro、Duc Le、Kawabata Takuya、Tamura Atsushi、Oizumi Tsutao、Saito Kazuo、Nohara Daisuke、Sumi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-22

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-023-00537-3

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] MEASUREMENT OF MICRO GROUND SURFACE ELEVATION BY A 3D CAMERA/SCANNER AND ITS APPLICATION TO FLOOD SIMULATION2022

    • Author(s)
      KOBAYASHI Kenichiro、OKUYAMA Toshihiro、KITADA Takehiro、MARUYAMA Kyosuke
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_793-I_798

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_793

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] ANALYSIS OF FLOODING IN UNDERGROUND SPACE USING 1M MESH ELEVATION DATA AND STUDY OF EVACUATION RISK2022

    • Author(s)
      INOKAWA Nanako、KOBAYASHI Kenichiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_415-I_420

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_415

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] MATTERS TO BE ATTENDED TO FLOOD CONTROL PLAN THROUGH EXTREME ANALYSIS WITH PEAK DISCHARGE AND CATCHMENT AVERAGE RAINFALL2022

    • Author(s)
      田中茂信・小林健一郎・北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 78 Issue: 2 Pages: I_475-I_480

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_475

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assessment of Climate Change effect on the extreme flooding of Yodogawa River Basin2022

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi Kenichiro
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 39th IAHR World Congress (Granada, 2022)

      Volume: 1 Pages: 6745-6748

    • DOI

      10.3850/iahr-39wc2521711920221345

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analysis of Evacuation Time for Vulnerable Individuals During Inundation of Lowland Areas2021

    • Author(s)
      Bae Chang Yeon、Kobayashi Kenichiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 16 Issue: 5 Pages: 866-873

    • DOI

      10.20965/jdr.2021.p0866

    • NAID

      130008070712

    • ISSN
      1881-2473, 1883-8030
    • Year and Date
      2021-08-01
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] SIMULATION OF ARAKAWA MIDDILE STREAM FLOOD DUE TO TYPHOON 19 20192021

    • Author(s)
      小林健一郎,田中規夫,丸山恭介,田中翔,渡部哲史,北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1393-I_1398

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1393

    • NAID

      130008160018

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] EVALUATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON THE DISCHARGE OF THE SAYOGAWA RIVER BY MULTI-RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS2021

    • Author(s)
      小林健一郎,田中規夫,丸山恭介,田中翔,渡部哲史,北野利一
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_181-I_186

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_181

    • NAID

      130008160113

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] SIMPLE EXTREME VARIABLE AND EXCEEDANCE NUMBER REVEALING THE MATHEMATICAL PROPERTIES OF EXTREME PRECIPITATIONS2021

    • Author(s)
      北野利一,渡部哲史,小林健一郎
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)

      Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1153-I_1158

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_I_1153

    • NAID

      130008160077

    • ISSN
      2185-467X
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of paddy field dam effect on flood mitigation focusing on Suse region of Hyogo, Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi Kenichiro、Kono Yasunori、Kimura Takao、Tanakamaru Haruya
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 15 Issue: 3 Pages: 64-70

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.15.64

    • NAID

      130008073551

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 韓国・蔚山広域市における洪水災害避難所の選定および評価2020

    • Author(s)
      BAE CHANG YEON,小林健一郎
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 76(2)

    • NAID

      40022434747

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A rainfall-runoff/flood-inundation model for Myohouji River basin Kobe Japan with rainwater sewage channels2020

    • Author(s)
      Kenichiro Kobayashi, Astushi Tamura, Ichiro Fujita, Akinobu Yamamoto and Kazuyoshi Kanayama
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 22nd IAHR-APD Congress

      Volume: 22 Pages: 1-6

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls -Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls2020

    • Author(s)
      Kenichiro Kobayashi, LeDuc, Apip, Tsutao Oizumi and Kazuo Saito
    • Journal Title

      Natural hazard and earth system sciences

      Volume: 20 Issue: 3 Pages: 755-770

    • DOI

      10.5194/nhess-20-755-2020

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 兵庫県芦屋高校の大規模避難訓練とマルチエージェント避難モデルによる再現2019

    • Author(s)
      小林健一郎, 千郷直斗, 丸山満帆, 木村圭佑, 浜中俊行, Bae Chang Yeon, 孟凡淞
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 75(2)

    • NAID

      40022086134

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] A Basic Study on the Optimal Evacuation Method Considering the Exit Blockage in Underground Space,2022

    • Author(s)
      Nanako INOKAWA, Kenichiro KOBAYASHI
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2022 virtual conference, 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of a Numerical Model to Simulate Human/automobile Movement in Flooding2022

    • Author(s)
      Kenichiro KOBAYASHI
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2022 virtual conference, 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimation of the Climate Change Effect on the Discharge for Sayogawa River by Multi Rainfall-runoff Models2021

    • Author(s)
      Kenichiro KOBAYASHI, Yuiko KAWABE, Atsushi TAMURA, Satoshi WATANABE, Toshikazu KITANO
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2021 virtual conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Study on the Evacuation Time for Vulnerable People Considering Flooding2021

    • Author(s)
      Bae Chang Yeon, Kobayashi Kenichiro
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2021 virtual conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 荒川流域における気候変動による確率水文量の変化分析2021

    • Author(s)
      丸山 恭介,小林 健一郎,田中 規夫,渡辺 哲史,北野 利一
    • Organizer
      令和3年度土木学会全国大会第76回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変動の影響を考慮した淀川流域を対象とした洪水リスク評価2021

    • Author(s)
      北田雄広,小林健一郎,渡辺 哲史,北野 利一
    • Organizer
      令和3年度土木学会全国大会第76回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Consideration of the advantages to use a supercomputer for flood risk management2020

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi Kenichiro
    • Organizer
      3rd International Conference on Computational Engineering and Science for Safety and Environmental Problems (COMPSAFE)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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