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Analysis of pre- and post- evaluation of portfolio strategy

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K04899
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 25010:Social systems engineering-related
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

Makimoto Naoki  筑波大学, ビジネスサイエンス系, 教授 (90242263)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Keywords投資戦略 / ポートフォリオ / パフォーマンス評価 / リターン予測 / 資産間相関 / 相関 / 金利期間構造 / 時系列予測 / 金融時系列 / ポートフォリオ戦略
Outline of Research at the Start

資産運用実務におけるポートフォリオのパフォーマンス評価に関しては,複数の戦略を比較することで生じる選択バイアスや,最適化と事後評価で利用する評価尺度が異なるなどの問題が指摘されており,結果的に想定されたパフォーマンスが達成できない事象がしばしば観察される.本研究では,こうした問題によって生じるパフォーマンスの乖離を定量的に分析し,その結果にもとづいてより適正なパフォーマンス評価を可能とするフレームワークの構築を目指す.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the combination of return prediction models and optimization methods in portfolio management and ex-post performance. From the results of empirical analysis of various investment assets, we confirmed that risk-sensitive performance measures can be improved by using a model that can more accurately express the statistical characteristics of returns such as distribution asymmetry and time variation. In addition, it was suggested that portfolio performance could be improved by incorporating non-linear autocorrelation of returns and medium- to long-term trends.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ポートフォリオのパフォーマンスはシャープレシオで評価することが多いが,最適化する段階では異なる尺度を用いることが多く,一貫したフレームワークになっていない.本研究では,リターン予測や最適化のモデルと事後的なパフォーマンスの関係を幅広く検証することで,パフォーマンスを改善するためのポートフォリオ構築手法を提示している.これらの結果は,投資戦略のリターン予測や最適化の高度化に資するものであり,またポートフォリオ運用実務に有用な知見を与えるものと考えられる.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2023 2021 2020

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Multi-period Dynamic Bond Portfolio Optimization Utilizing a Stochastic Interest Rate Model2023

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Shimai, Naoki Makimoto
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Financial Markets

      Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 817-844

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10690-023-09401-2

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] HOW TO BUILD A PORTFOLIO OF INTEREST-BEARING BONDS FOCUSING ON MARKET MISPRICING2021

    • Author(s)
      島井祥行,牧本直樹
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan

      Volume: 64 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-21

    • DOI

      10.15807/torsj.64.1

    • NAID

      130008076753

    • ISSN
      1349-8940, 2188-8280
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] マルコフ・スイッチング・ダイナミック非対称<i>t</i>コピュラを用いた本邦株式市場の依存構造に関する研究2021

    • Author(s)
      夷藤 翔、牧本直樹
    • Journal Title

      JAFEE Journal

      Volume: 19 Issue: 0 Pages: 27-56

    • DOI

      10.32212/jafee.19.0_27

    • NAID

      130008029207

    • ISSN
      2434-4702
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Time Series Prediction with LSTM Networks and Its Application to Equity Investment2020

    • Author(s)
      Matsumoto Ken、Makimoto Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Advanced Studies of Financial Technologies and Cryptocurrency Markets

      Volume: 1 Pages: 65-88

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-981-15-4498-9_4

    • ISBN
      9789811544972, 9789811544989
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 本邦株式市場のスタイル・ファクター間の依存構造に関する研究2023

    • Author(s)
      夷藤翔,牧本直樹
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会2023年春季研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multi-period bond portfolio optimization by linear rebalancing strategy utilizing a stochastic interest rate model2020

    • Author(s)
      Shimai Yoshiyuki, Makimoto Naoki
    • Organizer
      14th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ミスプライスに着目した利付債ポートフォリオの構築法2020

    • Author(s)
      島井祥行,牧本直樹
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会春季研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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