Simulation model for reducing disease burdan by improving lifestyle and health examination in a Japanese population
Project/Area Number |
19K10672
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Section | 一般 |
Review Section |
Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
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Research Institution | Toho University |
Principal Investigator |
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Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
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Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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Keywords | シミュレーション / 生活習慣 / 健康診断 |
Outline of Research at the Start |
公衆衛生分野の政策決定において、科学的根拠に基づいた将来予測が不可欠である。ただ原因(危険因子)が多岐にわたる生活習慣病においてその予測は難しく、シミュレーションモデルの構築が急務とされている。今回、集団全体の健康診査項目の改善が将来の疾患死亡の減少にどのくらい寄与するかを、日本人集団を対象にマイクロシミュレーション(Microsimulation)、Population Shift Model、Agent-based modellingなどの定量的手法を用い、国内外のエビデンスの統合することによって、数量的に検討する。
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Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We constructed a simulation model for reducing the burden of disease by improving lifestyle and health checkup items in the Japanese population. The models were used for quantifying the change in the burden of disease (specifically, the change in the number of deaths) when the population distribution of these risk factors was changed (reduced) for hypertension and high serum cholesterol. Our results showed that a 2 mmHg decrease in the population mean of systolic blood pressure for the entire population resulted in a decrease in stroke deaths of 1378 men and 710 women, and a decrease in CHD deaths of 2236 men and 2005 women. For a 2% reduction in total serum cholesterol in participants with 240 mg/dl, the reduction in CHD deaths was 1074 in men and 333 in women.
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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究で開発した方法論および成果については日本の保健医療政策、具体的には、これからの健康づくり運動(健康日本21)における危険因子の目標設定の参考となる基本資料作成に貢献すると考える。また今回検討したような、国民全体の収縮期血圧の変化の影響をシミュレーションにより定量化できた実績は、これからの危険因子の疾患死亡の影響解析の定量化に道筋をつけたものである。このように本研究の成果は学術的・社会的の両面で意義のあるものと考える。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(29 results)
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[Journal Article] Single Antiplatelet Therapy With Prasugrel vs. Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in Japanese Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Patients With High Bleeding Risk2021
Author(s)
Nakamura M, Kadota K,Nakao K,Nakagawa Y,Shite Junya,Yokoi H, Kozuma K,Tanabe K, Akasaka T, Shinke T,Ueno Takafumi,Hirayama A,Uemura S,Harada A,Kuroda T,Takita A,Iijima R, Murakami Y,Saito S.
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Journal Title
Circulation Journal
Volume: 85
Pages: 785-793
NAID
Related Report
Peer Reviewed
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[Journal Article] Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population2021
Author(s)
Imai Y, Mizuno Tanaka S, Satoh M, Hirata T, Murakami Y, Miura K, Waki T, Hirata A, Sairenchi T, Irie F, Sata M, Ninomiya T, Ohkubo T, Ishikawa S, Miyamoto Y, Ohnishi H, Saitoh S, Tamakoshi A, Yamada M, Kiyama M, Iso H, Sakata K, Nakagawa H, Okayama A, Ueshima H, Okamura T; EPOCH‐Japan Research Group
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Journal Title
J Am Heart Assoc
Volume: 10
Related Report
Peer Reviewed
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[Presentation] Combined Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease And Hypertension on Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Death: A Pooled Analysis of Data From the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention From Observational Cohorts in Japan Study2021
Author(s)
Imai Y, Sakurai M, Nakagawa H, Hirata A, Murakami Y, Tanaka S, Kiyohara Y, Ninomiya T, Ishikawa S, Saitoh S, Irie F, Sairenchi T, Kiyama M, Miura K, Ueshima H, Okamura T.
Organizer
American Heart Association Virtual Specialty Conference Dallas, TX US.
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] Smoking, blood pressure, and body mass index to estimate healthy life expectancy: NIPPON DATA902021
Author(s)
Rumi Tsukinoki, Takehito Hayakawa, Aya Kadota, Yoshitaka Murakami, Katsuyuki Miura, Akira Okayama,Tomonori Okamura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, the NIPPONDATA90 Research Group.
Organizer
World Congress of Epidemiology 2021
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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