Simulation model for reducing disease burdan by improving lifestyle and health examination in a Japanese population

• Project/Area Number: 19K10672
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Toho University
• Principal Investigator: Murakami Yoshitaka 東邦大学, 医学部, 教授 (90305855)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: シミュレーション / 生活習慣 / 健康診断

Outline of Research at the Start

公衆衛生分野の政策決定において、科学的根拠に基づいた将来予測が不可欠である。ただ原因(危険因子)が多岐にわたる生活習慣病においてその予測は難しく、シミュレーションモデルの構築が急務とされている。今回、集団全体の健康診査項目の改善が将来の疾患死亡の減少にどのくらい寄与するかを、日本人集団を対象にマイクロシミュレーション(Microsimulation)、Population Shift Model、Agent-based modellingなどの定量的手法を用い、国内外のエビデンスの統合することによって、数量的に検討する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We constructed a simulation model for reducing the burden of disease by improving lifestyle and health checkup items in the Japanese population. The models were used for quantifying the change in the burden of disease (specifically, the change in the number of deaths) when the population distribution of these risk factors was changed (reduced) for hypertension and high serum cholesterol. Our results showed that a 2 mmHg decrease in the population mean of systolic blood pressure for the entire population resulted in a decrease in stroke deaths of 1378 men and 710 women, and a decrease in CHD deaths of 2236 men and 2005 women. For a 2% reduction in total serum cholesterol in participants with 240 mg/dl, the reduction in CHD deaths was 1074 in men and 333 in women.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で開発した方法論および成果については日本の保健医療政策、具体的には、これからの健康づくり運動（健康日本21）における危険因子の目標設定の参考となる基本資料作成に貢献すると考える。また今回検討したような、国民全体の収縮期血圧の変化の影響をシミュレーションにより定量化できた実績は、これからの危険因子の疾患死亡の影響解析の定量化に道筋をつけたものである。このように本研究の成果は学術的・社会的の両面で意義のあるものと考える。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Early P2Y₁₂ Inhibitor Single Antiplatelet Therapy for High-Bleeding Risk Patients After Stenting ― PENDULUM Mono 24-Month Analysis ― (2022)
  • Author(s): Nakagawa Yoshihisa、Kadota Kazushige、Nakao Koichi、Shite Junya、Yokoi Hiroyoshi、Kozuma Ken、Tanabe Kengo、Akasaka Takashi、Shinke Toshiro、Ueno Takafumi、Hirayama Atsushi、Uemura Shiro、Iijima Raisuke、Harada Atsushi、Kuroda Takeshi、Takita Atsushi、Murakami Yoshitaka、Saito Shigeru、Nakamura Masato
  • Journal Title: Circulation Journal Volume: 86 Issue: 9 Pages: 1352-1361
  • DOI: 10.1253/circj.CJ-21-1004
  • ISSN: 1346-9843, 1347-4820
  • Year and Date: 2022-08-25
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Changes in Antithrombotic Therapy Over Time and Durability of a Prasugrel WOEST-Like Regimen for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Patients With Atrial Fibrillation ― Post Hoc Analysis of the PENDULUM Mono and PENDULUM Registries ― (2022)
  • Author(s): Nakao Koichi、Kadota Kazushige、Nakagawa Yoshihisa、Shite Junya、Yokoi Hiroyoshi、Kozuma Ken、Tanabe Kengo、Akasaka Takashi、Shinke Toshiro、Ueno Takafumi、Hirayama Atsushi、Uemura Shiro、Harada Atsushi、Kuroda Takeshi、Takita Atsushi、Iijima Raisuke、Murakami Yoshitaka、Saito Shigeru、Nakamura Masato
  • Journal Title: Circulation Reports Volume: 4 Issue: 5 Pages: 194-204
  • DOI: 10.1253/circrep.CR-22-0032
  • ISSN: 2434-0790
  • Year and Date: 2022-05-10
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Ischemic and Bleeding Events in PENDULUM Patients With High Bleeding Risk and High Platelet Reactivity (2022)
  • Author(s): Iijima Raisuke、Kadota Kazushige、Nakao Koichi、Nakagawa Yoshihisa、Shite Junya、Yokoi Hiroyoshi、Kozuma Ken、Tanabe Kengo、Akasaka Takashi、Shinke Toshiro、Ueno Takafumi、Hirayama Atsushi、Uemura Shiro、Harada Atsushi、Kuroda Takeshi、Takita Atsushi、Murakami Yoshitaka、Saito Shigeru、Nakamura Masato
  • Journal Title: Circulation Journal Volume: 86 Issue: 5 Pages: 763-771
  • DOI: 10.1253/circj.CJ-21-0717
  • NAID: 130008126267
  • ISSN: 1346-9843, 1347-4820
  • Year and Date: 2022-04-25
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 特集 脳科学リテラシーを高めるために 生物医学研究の基盤としての医療統計学 (2022)
  • Author(s): 村上 義孝、竹内 由則
  • Journal Title: BRAIN and NERVE Volume: 74 Issue: 4 Pages: 341-351
  • DOI: 10.11477/mf.1416202041
  • ISSN: 1344-8129, 1881-6096
  • Year and Date: 2022-04-01
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Ultrathin, Biodegradable-Polymer Sirolimus-Eluting Stent vs Thin, Durable-Polymer Everolimus-Eluting Stent (2022)
  • Author(s): Nakamura Masato、Kadota Kazushige、Nakagawa Yoshihisa、Tanabe Kengo、Ito Yoshiaki、Amano Tetsuya、Maekawa Yuichiro、Takahashi Akihiko、Shiode Nobuo、Otsuka Yoritaka、Kawasaki Tomohiro、Hikichi Yutaka、Shite Junya、Kozuma Ken、Iijima Raisuke、Murakami Yoshitaka
  • Journal Title: JACC: Cardiovascular Interventions Volume: 15 Issue: 13 Pages: 1324
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jcin.2022.05.028
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Association between the number of remaining teeth and disability-free life expectancy, and the impact of oral self-care in older Japanese adults: a prospective cohort study (2022)
  • Author(s): Yamato Maya、Matsuyama Sanae、Murakami Yoshitaka、Aida Jun、Lu Yukai、Sugawara Yumi、Tsuji Ichiro
  • Journal Title: BMC Geriatrics Volume: 22 Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12877-022-03541-2
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Death from Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Cardiovascular Disease in a Pooled Analysis of Japanese Cohorts: EPOCH-JAPAN (2021)
  • Author(s): Li Yuanying、Yatsuya Hiroshi、Tanaka Sachiko、Iso Hiroyasu、Okayama Akira、Tsuji Ichiro、Sakata Kiyomi、Miyamoto Yoshihiro、Ueshima Hirotsugu、Miura Katsuyuki、Murakami Yoshitaka、Okamura Tomonori、EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group
  • Journal Title: Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis Volume: 28 Issue: 8 Pages: 816-825
  • DOI: 10.5551/jat.58958
  • NAID: 130008070351
  • ISSN: 1340-3478, 1880-3873
  • Year and Date: 2021-08-01
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Relationship Between Calcium Intake and Impaired Activities of Daily Living in a Japanese Population: NIPPON DATA90 (2021)
  • Author(s): Kogure Mana、Tsuchiya Naho、Narita Akira、Hirata Takumi、Nakaya Naoki、Nakamura Tomohiro、Hozawa Atsushi、Hayakawa Takehito、Okuda Nagako、Miyagawa Naoko、Kadota Aya、Ohkubo Takayoshi、Murakami Yoshitaka、Sakata Kiyomi、Miura Katsuyuki、Okayama Akira、Okamura Tomonori、Ueshima Hirotsugu
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 31 Issue: 2 Pages: 119-124
  • DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20190234
  • NAID: 130007981134
  • ISSN: 0917-5040, 1349-9092
  • Year and Date: 2021-02-05
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Combination of Blood Pressure and Total Cholesterol Increases the Lifetime Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: EPOCH–JAPAN (2021)
  • Author(s): Satoh M、Ohkubo T、Asayama K、Murakami Y et al. on behave of EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group
  • Journal Title: Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Pages: 6-24
  • DOI: 10.5551/jat.52613
  • NAID: 130007965098
  • ISSN: 1340-3478, 1880-3873
  • URL: https://pure.teikyo.jp/en/publications/261d70e5-3b7f-43d7-bfe2-08b48b1a5cd3
  • Year and Date: 2021-01-01
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Lipid Management and 2-Year Clinical Outcomes in Japanese Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome: EXPLORE-J. (2021)
  • Author(s): Nakamura M, Ako J, Arai H, Hirayama A, Nohara A, Murakami Y, Ozaki A, Harada-Shiba M.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb. Volume: 28 Pages: 1307-1322
  • NAID: 130008123361
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Association between social participation and disability-free life expectancy in Japanese older people: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study (2021)
  • Author(s): Matsuyama S, Murakami Y, Lu Y, Sone T, Sugawara Y, Tsuji I.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Epidemiology Volume: .
  • NAID: 130008006056
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Single Antiplatelet Therapy With Prasugrel vs. Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in Japanese Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Patients With High Bleeding Risk (2021)
  • Author(s): Nakamura M, Kadota K,Nakao K,Nakagawa Y,Shite Junya,Yokoi H, Kozuma K,Tanabe K, Akasaka T, Shinke T,Ueno Takafumi,Hirayama A,Uemura S,Harada A,Kuroda T,Takita A,Iijima R, Murakami Y,Saito S.
  • Journal Title: Circulation Journal Volume: 85 Pages: 785-793
  • NAID: 130008043222
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Familial Hypercholesterolemia in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome: Genetic Insights from EXPLORE-J. (2021)
  • Author(s): Harada-Shiba M, Ako J, Hirayama A, Nakamura M, Nohara A, Sato K, Murakami Y, Koshida R, Ozaki A, Arai H.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb. Volume: .
  • NAID: 130008088102
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population (2021)
  • Author(s): Imai Y, Mizuno Tanaka S, Satoh M, Hirata T, Murakami Y, Miura K, Waki T, Hirata A, Sairenchi T, Irie F, Sata M, Ninomiya T, Ohkubo T, Ishikawa S, Miyamoto Y, Ohnishi H, Saitoh S, Tamakoshi A, Yamada M, Kiyama M, Iso H, Sakata K, Nakagawa H, Okayama A, Ueshima H, Okamura T; EPOCH‐Japan Research Group
  • Journal Title: J Am Heart Assoc Volume: 10
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Sleep Duration and Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among Japanese Older Adults: The Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study. (2021)
  • Author(s): Lu Y, Matsuyama S, Murakami Y, Sugawara Y, Tsuji I.
  • Journal Title: J Am Med Dir Assoc Volume: S1525-8610 Pages: 01019-7
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Monotherapy With Prasugrel After Dual-Antiplatelet Therapy for Japanese Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Patients With High Bleeding Risk ― A Prospective Cohort Study (PENDULUM mono Study) ― (2020)
  • Author(s): Nakamura M、Morino Y、Kakuta T、Hata Y、Takamisawa I、Tanabe K、Anzai H、Takahashi A、Kadota K、Suzuki H、Wakatsuki T、Okayama H、Yamashita J、Akasaka T、Yokoi H、Nakagami T、Higuchi Y、Yamaguchi J、Kimura T、Harada A、Kuroda T、Takita A、Iijima R、Murakami Y、Saito S
  • Journal Title: Circulation Journal Volume: 85 Issue: 1 Pages: 27-36
  • DOI: 10.1253/circj.CJ-20-0786
  • NAID: 130007961197
  • ISSN: 1346-9843, 1347-4820
  • Year and Date: 2020-12-25
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of hypertension stratified by diabetes on the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in Japan: a pooled analysis of data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan study (2020)
  • Author(s): Imai Y、Hirata T、Saitoh S、Ninomiya T、Miyamoto Y、Ohnishi H、Murakami Y、Iso H、Tanaka S、Miura K、Tamakoshi A、Yamada M、Kiyama M、Ueshima H、Ishikawa S、Okamura T、EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group
  • Journal Title: Hypertension Research Volume: 43 Issue: 12 Pages: 1437-1444
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41440-020-0502-5
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Randomised comparison of postpolypectomy surveillance intervals following a two-round baseline colonoscopy: the Japan Polyp Study Workgroup (2020)
  • Author(s): Matsuda T、Fujii T、Sano Y、Kudo S、Oda Y、Hotta K、Shimoda T、Saito Y、Kobayashi N、Sekiguchi M、Konishi K、Ikematsu H、Iishi H、Takeuchi Y、Igarashi M、Kobayashi K、Sada M、Yamaguchi Y、Hasuda K、Shinohara T、Ishikawa H、Murakami Y、Taniguchi H、Fujimori T、Ajioka Y、Yoshida S
  • Journal Title: Gut Volume: . Issue: 8 Pages: 1469-1478
  • DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-321996
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Relationship Between Platelet Reactivity and Ischemic and Bleeding Events After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in East Asian Patients: 1‐Year Results of the PENDULUM Registry (2020)
  • Author(s): Nakamura Masato、Kadota Kazushige、Takahashi Akihiko、Kanda Junji、Anzai Hitoshi、Ishii Yasuhiro、Shibata Yoshisato、Yasaka Yoshinori、Takamisawa Itaru、Yamaguchi Junichi、Takeda Yoshihiro、Harada Atsushi、Motohashi Tomoko、Iijima Raisuke、Uemura Shiro、Murakami Yoshitaka、for the PENDULUM Registry Investigators*
  • Journal Title: Journal of the American Heart Association Volume: 9 Issue: 10 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1161/jaha.119.015439
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Relationship of household salt intake level with long-term all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in Japan: NIPPON DATA80 (2019)
  • Author(s): Shima Azusa、for the NIPPON DATA80 Research Group、Miyamatsu Naomi、Miura Katsuyuki、Miyagawa Naoko、Okuda Nagako、Yoshita Katsushi、Kadota Aya、Suzuki Harumitsu、Kondo Keiko、Okamura Tomonori、Okayama Akira、Ueshima Hirotsugu
  • Journal Title: Hypertension Research Volume: 43 Issue: 2 Pages: 132
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41440-019-0349-9
  • NAID: 120006776240
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Combined Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease And Hypertension on Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Death: A Pooled Analysis of Data From the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention From Observational Cohorts in Japan Study (2021)
  • Author(s): Imai Y, Sakurai M, Nakagawa H, Hirata A, Murakami Y, Tanaka S, Kiyohara Y, Ninomiya T, Ishikawa S, Saitoh S, Irie F, Sairenchi T, Kiyama M, Miura K, Ueshima H, Okamura T.
  • Organizer: American Heart Association Virtual Specialty Conference Dallas, TX US.
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Validation of a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model for population health planning in Japan: EPOCH-JAPAN. (2021)
  • Author(s): Yoshitaka Murakami, Kei Asayama, Atsushi Hozawa, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Ichiro Tsuji,Tomonori Okamura, Katsuyuki Miura and Hirotsugu Ueshima on behalf of the EPOCH-JAPAN study investigators.
  • Organizer: World Congress of Epidemiology 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Smoking, blood pressure, and body mass index to estimate healthy life expectancy: NIPPON DATA90 (2021)
  • Author(s): Rumi Tsukinoki, Takehito Hayakawa, Aya Kadota, Yoshitaka Murakami, Katsuyuki Miura, Akira Okayama,Tomonori Okamura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, the NIPPONDATA90 Research Group.
  • Organizer: World Congress of Epidemiology 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies on cardiovascular diseases in Japan: EPOCH-JAPAN. (2021)
  • Author(s): Murakami Y.
  • Organizer: The 19th International Symposium on Atherosclerosis
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 動脈硬化のリスク軽減は健康寿命の延伸に貢献したか? 動脈硬化危険因子の平均寿命・健康寿命への影響 (2020)
  • Author(s): 村上義孝
  • Organizer: 第52回日本動脈硬化学会総会・学術集会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 受療行動調査を用いた病院の患者満足度に対する影響要因の探索 (2020)
  • Author(s): 村上義孝，大庭真梨
  • Organizer: 第30回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 被保険者・被扶養者別にみた子育て世代女性における健康管理状況と健康診断に関するニーズ調査 (2020)
  • Author(s): 月野木ルミ, 村上義孝, 大澤絵里, 岡村智教
  • Organizer: 第30回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Development of a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model for population health planning in JAPAN:EPOCH-JAPAN STUDY. (2019)
  • Author(s): Y Murakami, T Okamura, K Miura, H Ueshima, on behalf of the EPOCH-JAPAN.
  • Organizer: Society for Social Medicine and Population Health and International Epidemiology Association European Congress Annual Scientific Meeting. Sep 2019. Cork, Ireland.
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] The impact of distribution shifts in a population's cardiovascular risk factors on healthy life expectancy in JAPAN. (2019)
  • Author(s): R Tsukinoki, Y Murakami, K Miura, T Okamura, A Kadota, T Hayamawa, A Okayama, H Ueshima.
  • Organizer: Society for Social Medicine and Population Health and International Epidemiology Association European Congress Annual Scientific Meeting. Sep 2019. Cork, Ireland.
  • Int'l Joint Research