Statistical study on the establishment of the basis for a spatio-temporal model-based method of analysing fisheries resources.

• Project/Area Number: 19K11855
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 60030:Statistical science-related
• Research Institution: Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: Kitakado Toshihide 東京海洋大学, 学術研究院, 教授 (40281000)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 時空間分布 / 統計モデル / マグロ類 / サンマ / 統計モデリング / 階層型モデリング / 海棲哺乳類 / 時空間モデル / 空間分布 / 集団の混合 / 水産資源

Outline of Research at the Start

水産資源の持続的かつ有効な利用のために，水産生物の資源量だけでなく，資源の時空間的な変化の様子も捉えようという動きがある．そこで本研究では，水産資源解析高度化のための時空間モデルの基盤確立と応用を目指し，次の2つの観点から研究を行う．
(1) 高度回遊性の水産資源を対象に，生物の空間分布のパターンやその時間的変化を理解するための時空間交互作用を潜在変数とみなした階層型時空間統計モデリングとその推定法の開発を行うとともに，実例等を通してその有効性を検証する．
(2) 上記で構築した単一個体群の時空間モデルを更に拡張するために，複数個体群の混合や棲み分けを表現する時空間統計モデルを構築する．

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, statistical modelling and estimation methods for understanding the patterns of spatial distribution of organisms and their temporal changes were studied mainly for highly migratory fisheries resources such as tunas, with the aim of establishing and applying the basis of spatio-temporal models for the advancement of fisheries population analysis. This work enabled the extraction of an indicator of population dynamics from spatial information, the application of size-specific spatio-temporal distribution modelling, and modelling of changes in the distribution of tuna stocks due to future climate change.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

水産資源の持続的かつ有効な利用には，資源量の時間的変化に加えて，資源の時空間分布を適切に捉えることが望ましいが，水産生物の場合には直接観察することができず，観測と現象を適切に表現する統計的モデルングと推測方法が必須となる．本研究の結果は，実際にマグロ類やサンマの国際会議において成果として報告し，一部は実際の資源解析および管理に利用された．また，将来の気候変動による資源の空間分布変化を捉えるための重要な基礎研究とも位置付けられる．

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] 台湾大学(その他の国・地域 (台湾))
• [Journal Article] Estimation of abundance and population dynamics of the Antarctic blue whale in the Antarctic Ocean south of 60°S, from 70°E to 170°W (2023)
  • Author(s): Hamabe Kohei、Matsuoka Koji、Kitakado Toshihide
  • Journal Title: Marine Mammal Science Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Pages: 671-687
  • DOI: 10.1111/mms.13006
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Size-specific spatiotemporal dynamics of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) caught by the longline fishery in the eastern Pacific Ocean (2021)
  • Author(s): Satoh, K., H. Xu, C.V. Minte-Vera, M.N. Maunder and T. Kitakado
  • Journal Title: Fisheries Research Volume: 243 Pages: 106065-106065
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.106065
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean by using a geostatistical modelling approach (2021)
  • Author(s): Hsu Jhen、Chang Yi-Jay、Kitakado Toshihide、Kai Mikihiko、Li Bai、Hashimoto Midori、Hsieh Chih-hao、Kulik Vladimir、Park Kyum Joon
  • Journal Title: Fisheries Research Volume: 235 Pages: 105821-105821
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105821
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Abundance Estimates of Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) Off the Western Coast of Hokkaido, Japan (2021)
  • Author(s): Hattori Kaoru、Kitakado Toshihide、Isono Takeomi、Yamamura Orio
  • Journal Title: Mammal Study Volume: 46 Issue: 1 Pages: 3-16
  • DOI: 10.3106/ms2020-0030
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A cookbook for using model diagnostics in integrated stock assessments (2021)
  • Author(s): Carvalho Felipe、Winker Henning、Courtney Dean、Kapur Maia、Kell Laurence、Cardinale Massimiliano、Schirripa Michael、Kitakado Toshihide、Yemane Dawit、Piner Kevin R.、Maunder Mark N.、Taylor Ian、Wetzel Chantel R.、Doering Kathryn、Johnson Kelli F.、Methot Richard D.
  • Journal Title: Fisheries Research Volume: 240 Pages: 105959-105959
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.105959
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Operating model design in tuna Regional Fishery Management Organizations: Current practice, issues and implications (2020)
  • Author(s): Sharma Rishi、Levontin Polina、Kitakado Toshihide、Kell Laurence、Mosqueira Iago、Kimoto Ai、Scott Rob、Minte‐Vera Carolina、De Bruyn Paul、Ye Yimin、Kleineberg Jana、Walton Jo Lindsay、Miller Shana、Magnusson Arni
  • Journal Title: Fish and Fisheries Volume: 21 Issue: 5 Pages: 940-961
  • DOI: 10.1111/faf.12480
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The need for spatio-temporal modeling to determine catch-per-unit effort based indices of abundance and associated composition data for inclusion in stock assessment models (2020)
  • Author(s): Maunder Mark N.、Thorson James T.、Xu Haikun、Oliveros-Ramos Ricardo、Hoyle Simon D.、Tremblay-Boyer Laura、Lee Hui Hua、Kai Mikihiko、Chang Shui-Kai、Kitakado Toshihide、Albertsen Christoffer M.、Minte-Vera Carolina V.、Lennert-Cody Cleridy E.、Aires-da-Silva Alexandre M.、Piner Kevin R.
  • Journal Title: Fisheries Research Volume: 229 Pages: 105594-105594
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105594
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparison of biomass estimates from multiple stratification approaches in a swept area method for Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the western North Pacific (2020)
  • Author(s): Hashimoto, Midori, Hideaki Kidokoro, Satoshi Suyama, Taiki Fuji, Hiroomi Miyamoto, Miyako Naya, Dharmamony Vijai, Yasuhiro Ueno and Toshihide Kitakado
  • Journal Title: Fisheries Science Volume: 86 Issue: 3 Pages: 445-456
  • DOI: 10.1007/s12562-020-01407-3
  • NAID: 40022230763
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Statistical modelling for spatio-temporal population mixture for marine mammal species (2019)
  • Author(s): Toshihide Kitakado
  • Organizer: World Marine Mammal Conference 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research