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Macroeconomic Dynamics and Big-data Analytics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K13649
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
Research InstitutionYokohama City University

Principal Investigator

Nakazono Yoshiyuki  横浜市立大学, 国際マネジメント研究科, 客員准教授 (10707483)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywordsマクロ経済学 / 期待形成 / インフレ期待 / 異時点間の代替の弾力性 / 消費
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究の目的は、独自性のあるデータを用いてマクロ経済動学を分析する点にあります。特に本研究では、家計の消費に焦点を当て、集計データでは必ずしも明らかになるとは言えない消費の実態について、個票データの分析によって明らかにします。消費の実相については近年、強い関心が寄せられています。本研究では、民間調査会社が保有する大規模消費パネルデータを用いることで、従来のデータでは迫り切れなかった家計消費の実態を明らかにすることを目的にしています。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project uses large-scale private-sector big data to reveal heterogeneous macroeconomic dynamics across households. First, we find that households' inflation expectations respond to changes in the prices of goods they purchase regularly. Second, we find that households increase their current consumption when inflation expectations rise. Third, we find that households reduce their consumption levels by more than 2% at retirement and that this decline persists for at least two years. The results suggest that the use of private-sector big data may provide an opportunity to open new avenues for economics research.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究課題では、大規模民間ビッグデータを用いて家計ごとに異質的なマクロ経済動学を明らかにしました。家計ごとに異質的な経済ショックと同様にマクロ経済ショックも家計に与える影響が異質的であるという本研究の結果は、家計ごとに異なる政策手当に対して科学的な根拠を与えるものです。また本研究の結果は民間ビッグデータの活用が経済学研究の新たな地平を拓くきっかけとなり得ることを示唆しています。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (9 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results) Presentation (23 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立政治大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Nagao Ryoya、Kondo Yoshihiro、Nakazono Yoshiyuki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 61 Pages: 101149-101149

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101149

    • NAID

      210000173618

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Moneyball Revisited: Some Counter-evidence2021

    • Author(s)
      Koji Yashiki, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      ESRI Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 362

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Micro-data Evidence2020

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      ESRI Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 353

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] A Drastic Increase in the Cigarette Tax and the Compensatory Behavior of Smokers2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinri Ishida, Rui Ota, Masahiro Sato, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Economic Association

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Time to See a Doctor: Expenditure at Retirement in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Kento Tango, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] The Salient Effect: Evidence from the Consumption Tax Hike in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinri Ishida, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] To Swing or Not to Swing? Reference Point and Professional Baseball Players2020

    • Author(s)
      Koji Yashiki, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Journal Title

      ESRI Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 354

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Private information and analyst coverage: Evidence from firm survey data2020

    • Author(s)
      Nakazono Yoshiyuki、Koga Maiko、Sugo Tomohiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

      Volume: 174 Pages: 284-298

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jebo.2020.03.038

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Kondo Yoshihiro、Nakazono Yoshiyuki、Ota Rui、Sui Qing-Yuan
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 55 Pages: 101053-101053

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2019.101053

    • NAID

      210000175951

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Heterogeneous Responses of Consumption to COVID-19 between Generations2021

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      Japanese Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      The SCE 27th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      IAAE Annual Conference 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Household Overreaction2021

    • Author(s)
      Kakeru Hatanaka
    • Organizer
      Association of Behavioral Economics and Finance
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Drastic Increase in the Cigarette Tax and the Compensatory Behavior of Smokers2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinri Ishida
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Moneyball Revisited: Counter-evidence from MLB and NPB2020

    • Author(s)
      Koji Yashiki
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      World Congress of the Econometric Society
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Micro-data Evidence2020

    • Author(s)
      Junichi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Salient Effect: Evidence from the Consumption Tax Hike in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Nakazono
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kondo
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Loss Aversion: Conservative Baseball Players with Batting Average just above .3002020

    • Author(s)
      Koji Yashiki
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Sorrows of Young Students: Low Consumption and Loan Depression2020

    • Author(s)
      Shinri Ishida
    • Organizer
      2020年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Ryoya Nagao
    • Organizer
      2020年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Time to See a Doctor: Expenditure at Retirement in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Kento Tango
    • Organizer
      2020年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Time to See a Doctor: Expenditure at Retirement in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Kento Tango
    • Organizer
      第14回行動経済学会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Salient Effect: Evidence from the Consumption Tax Hike in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Tanahara
    • Organizer
      第14回行動経済学会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Formation of Inflation Expectations: Micro-data Evidence from Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      菊池淳一
    • Organizer
      第21回マクロコンファレンス
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Moneyball Revisited: An Economic Evaluation of Performance and Wage in the Japanese Case2019

    • Author(s)
      家舗弘志
    • Organizer
      2019年度日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Salience Effects: Evidence from the Consumption Tax Hike in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      石田森里
    • Organizer
      2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Micro-data Evidence2019

    • Author(s)
      菊池淳一
    • Organizer
      2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Stock Prices during the Day and Night: An International Comparison2019

    • Author(s)
      近藤佳裕
    • Organizer
      2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Moneyball Revisited: An Economic Evaluation of Performance and Wage in the Japanese Case2019

    • Author(s)
      家舗弘志
    • Organizer
      2019年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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