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Quantitative macroeconomic study on the U.S. childcare market.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K13678
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Kubota So  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授(任期付) (00814352)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Keywords保育市場 / 女性労働 / 給付金 / 消費 / ライフサイクルモデル / 補助金 / マクロ経済学 / 家族の経済学 / 保育補助金 / 特別定額給付金 / 新型コロナウイルス / 消費喚起効果 / SIRモデル / 異質的家計のマクロモデル / 保育 / 米国 / 女性就業
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では米国の保育市場及び女性就労について、その長期的傾向、また政策の影響を分析する。米国では女性労働参加率の低下と高額な保育費用が大きな政治・社会問題となっている。私はこの研究課題について、まず保育市場の統計指標を整備することで事実解明を行う。そして、経済モデルのシミュレーションを用いて保育費高騰の原因を解明し、そしてより良い政策の提言を行う。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this project, I have mainly studied the macroeconomic approach on family economics.
My main topic is the long-term trend of the child care market in the United States. I first find a sharp increase in the child care price in the late 1990s. I show that a massive expansion of federal and state means-tested child care subsidies, which were intended to stimulate the market, instead crowded out child care supply. A simple calibrated equilibrium model captures these effects. I also extended it to a rich life-cycle model and incorporate other taxes and benefits.
Given the COVID-19 recession hit worldwide, I also started a new project about household consumption behaviors. In particular, I study the marginal propensity of consumption (MPC) to Japan’s COVID-19 unconditional cash transfer program. I used a natural experiment about the timing of transfer caused by administrative procedures. Interestingly, the MPC is almost homogeneous over family size and family type.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

メインの米国保育市場の分析について、大きな学術的意義は政策が意図しない逆の効果をもたらす可能性を見いだしたことにある。具体的には、保育需要側への補助として行われた給付が、保育供給側である、子供のいる保育士の行動を変化させてしまったことである。これは、政策を考える上で一般均衡的効果を考慮することの重要性を示唆する。また、社会的意義については、米国の保育料高騰問題について、需要側への補助ではなく、保育供給側への補助、特に伝統的な家庭的保育を活用することが有効な解決策だと見いだしたことにある。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (32 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Journal Article (6 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (25 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Macroeconomic studies on the covid-19 crisis2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Health Economics and Policy

      Volume: 33 Issue: 1 Pages: 18-35

    • DOI

      10.24742/jhep.2021.01

    • NAID

      40022738803

    • ISSN
      1340-895X, 2759-4017
    • Year and Date
      2021-10-18
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Consumption Responses to COVID-19 Payments: Evidence from a Natural Experiment and Bank Account Data2021

    • Author(s)
      Kubota So、Onishi Koichiro、Toyama Yuta
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

      Volume: 未定 Pages: 1-17

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.006

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Who spent their COVID-19 stimulus payment? Evidence from personal finance software in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kaneda Michiru、Kubota So、Tanaka Satoshi
    • Journal Title

      The Japanese Economic Review

      Volume: 72 Issue: 3 Pages: 409-437

    • DOI

      10.1007/s42973-021-00080-0

    • NAID

      210000178591

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kubota So
    • Journal Title

      The Japanese Economic Review

      Volume: 72 Issue: 4 Pages: 651-682

    • DOI

      10.1007/s42973-021-00091-x

    • NAID

      210000162189

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Who spent their COVID-19 stimulus payment? Evidence from personal finance software in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Michiru Kaneda, So Kubota and Satoshi Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers

      Volume: 75 Pages: 1-29

    • NAID

      210000178591

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Macroeconomics of Covid-19 Exit Strategy: The Case of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      So Kubota
    • Journal Title

      Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers

      Volume: 70 Pages: 109-133

    • NAID

      210000162189

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] A Search and Bargaining Model of Non-degenerate Distributions of Money Holdings2022

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      生産性とマクロ経済学研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] コロナ危機のマクロ経済分析2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本経済研究センター、AI・ビッグデータ経済モデル研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 新型コロナ関連政策のマクロ経済学的分析2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会春季大会COVID-19特別セッション
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Culture, Gender, and Structural Transformation: A Case of Turkey2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      Society of Economics of the Household
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Search and Bargaining Model of Non-degenerate Distributions of Money Holdings2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      早慶マクロワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本医療経済学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 感染と経済の中長期展望2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      Covid-19と経済活動zoom説明会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 感染と経済の中長期展望2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      新型コロナウイルスアドバイザリーボード研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Search and Bargaining Model of Non-degenerate Distributions of Money Holdings2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      サーチ理論オンライン研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Culture, Gender, and Structural Transformation: The Case of Turkey2021

    • Author(s)
      So Kubota
    • Organizer
      2021 Annual Meeting of the Society of the Economics of the Household
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 新型コロナ関連政策のマクロ経済学的分析2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] コロナ危機のマクロ経済分析2021

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本経済研究センター 「AI・ビッグデータ経済モデル研究会」
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Who Spent COVID-19 Stimulus Payment? Evidence from Personal Finance Software in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Michiru Kaneda
    • Organizer
      Empirical Micro Research Seminar, University of Tokyo
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Who Spent COVID-19 Stimulus Payment? Evidence from Personal Finance Software in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      兼田充
    • Organizer
      Tokyo Labor Economics Workshop
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy2021

    • Author(s)
      濵野正樹
    • Organizer
      日本銀行金融研究所
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data2020

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      第22回マクロコンファレンス
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy2020

    • Author(s)
      濵野正樹
    • Organizer
      第22回マクロコンファレンス
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Consumption Responses to COVID-19 Payments: Evidence from a Natural Experiment and Bank Account Data2020

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      日本銀行調査統計局
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy2020

    • Author(s)
      濵野正樹
    • Organizer
      Summer Workshop on Economic Theory
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19 Misperception and Macroeconomy2020

    • Author(s)
      片山宗親
    • Organizer
      Macroeconomics Seminar, University of Tokyo
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies2020

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      東北大学
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies2020

    • Author(s)
      So Kubota
    • Organizer
      Queensland University
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies2019

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      明星大学
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies2019

    • Author(s)
      久保田荘
    • Organizer
      青山学院大学
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The U.S. Child Care Crisis: Facts, Causes, and Policies2019

    • Author(s)
      So Kubota
    • Organizer
      Goethe University in Frankfurt
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] https://sites.google.com/site/gkubotaso/

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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