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A Study on the Relationship between Time-Varying Structure of Anomalies and Speculative Bubbles in International Stock Markets

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K13747
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionMeiji University (2021-2023)
Kyoto Sangyo University (2019-2020)

Principal Investigator

Noda Akihiko  明治大学, 商学部, 専任教授 (80610112)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Keywordsマルチファクターモデル / 状態空間モデル / 一般化最小2乗法 / 小型株効果 / バリュー効果 / モメンタム効果 / 収益性効果 / 投資効果 / 裁定価格理論 / 計量ファイナンス / 時系列解析
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究の目的は,一般化最小2乗法に基づいた時変多変量回帰モデルを構築し,Fama-French (1993, 2015) で提案された2つのマルチファクターモデルに適用することで,国際株式市場における様々なアノマリーの時変構造を解明することである.さらに,様々なアノマリーの時変構造が生じる原因を投機的バブルとの関連性から検証する.様々なアノマリーの存否に通時的な変動が生じる原因を投機的バブルとの関係から明らかにすることによって,より正確に株式の期待収益率(資本コスト)を計測するためのモデルを新たに構築するための素地となることが期待される.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study is to investigate the time-varying structure of various multi-factor models using a GLS-based multivariate state-space model. In particular, we extend a GLS-based time-varying estimation model proposed by Ito et. al. (2022) to a time-varying multivariate regression model to examine the time-varying structure. We find that the validity of Fama and French's (1993, 2015) model varies over time, and elucidate the causes of the periods when the model did not work using macroeconomic risk factors.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では,GLS推定量に基づいた多変量状態空間モデルを構築し,Fama-Frenchの3/5ファクターモデルの時変構造を解明すると同時に,同モデルが機能しない時期の原因がマクロ経済に起因するリスクファクターにあることを明らかにした.このことは,日本においても株式の資本コストを計測するためのベンチマークが通時的に変動していることを意味している.よって,本研究の結論から,これまでのように社会経済構造が時間に対して安定的であることを仮定したベンチマークモデルではなく,レジームスイッチングを伴うようなベンチマークモデルを開発する必要性が示唆される.

Report

(6 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Open Access: 5 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices2023

    • Author(s)
      Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      arXiv.org Statistical Finance

      Volume: - Pages: 1-23

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the Time-Varying Structures of the Fama-French Multi-Factor Models2022

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      arXiv, Statistical Finance

      Volume: - Pages: 1-61

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Examining the Dynamic Asset Market Linkages under the COVID-19 Global Pandemic2022

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      Economics Bulletin

      Volume: Accepted

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] An Alternative Estimation Method for Time-Varying Parameter Models2022

    • Author(s)
      Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, and Tatsuma Wada
    • Journal Title

      Econometrics

      Volume: 10(2) Issue: 2 Pages: 23-23

    • DOI

      10.3390/econometrics10020023

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets: A GLS-Based Time-Varying Model Approach2021

    • Author(s)
      Mikio Ito, Akihiko Noda, Tatsuma Wada
    • Journal Title

      Mathematics

      Volume: 9 Issue: 8 Pages: 1-13

    • DOI

      10.3390/math9080849

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] On the evolution of cryptocurrency market efficiency2020

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      Applied Economics Letters

      Volume: 28 Issue: 6 Pages: 433-439

    • DOI

      10.1080/13504851.2020.1758617

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model2020

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Hirayama and Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance Papers [arXiv:2008.00860]

      Volume: - Pages: 1-29

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] On the Evolution of Cryptocurrency Market Efficiency2019

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance Papers [arXiv:1904.09403]

      Volume: - Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in Prewar Japanese Stock Markets2019

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance Papers [arXiv: 1911.04059]

      Volume: - Pages: 1-23

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices2023

    • Author(s)
      Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices2023

    • Author(s)
      Koichiro Moriya and Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会2023年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimating the Time-Varying Structures of the Fama-French Multi-Factor Models2022

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 97th Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model2022

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda and Kenichi Hirayama
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model2021

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Hirayama and Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in Prewar Japanese Stock Markets,2021

    • Author(s)
      Kenichi Hirayama and Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 96th Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model2020

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda and Kenichi Hirayama
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] On the Time-Varying Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets2019

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 94th Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in Prewar Japanese Stock Markets2019

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      明治大学株価指数研究所研究セミナー
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in Prewar Japanese Stock Markets2019

    • Author(s)
      Akihiko Noda
    • Organizer
      京都産業大学経済学部研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] JSPS Research Projects

    • URL

      https://at-noda.com/jsps/

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report 2022 Research-status Report 2021 Research-status Report 2020 Research-status Report 2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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