Development of Wave Coupled Global Climate Model and Estimation of Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Disaster

• Project/Area Number: 19K15099
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Tomoya Shimura 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (70789792)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 全球気候モデル / 大気海洋相互作用 / 波浪 / 台風

Outline of Research at the Start

気候変動が顕在化し台風や豪雨などの極端な気象現象による災害の深刻さが増大するなか，適応策としてのインフラ整備計画・防災対策のために将来気候変動予測の重要性が増している．気候変動予測の核となる全球気候モデルの改善が必須であり，そのために有力視されている導入要素が波浪である．波浪は大気海洋間相互作用の重要な役割を担う物理過程であるが，現行の全球気候モデルにおいて，波浪は陽に表現されていない．本研究では，気候システムへの波浪の働き・波及効果を解明したうえで，波浪を考慮した気候モデリングを世界に先駆けて達成し，気候変動影響評価・適応策に必要となる気候変動予測を改善することを目的とする．

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The core of climate change research is Global Climate Model (GCM) and its improvement is important. This study developed the ocean wave coupled GCM and estimated the contribution of waves to global climate system. Implementing the wave dependent air-sea momentum flux into the wave coupled GCM, we showed that the wave coupling can improve the reproducibility of historical ocean heat content which control the sea level rise and atmospheric temperature increase. And, the ocean wave coupling can influence the typhoon track in mid-latitudes. These results indicate the importance considering wave effects in climate modeling.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

気候変動が顕在化し台風や豪雨などの極端な気象現象による災害の深刻さが増大するなか，適応策としてのインフラ整備計画・防災対策のために将来気候変動予測の重要性が増している．そのため気候変動予測研究の核である全球気候モデルの高度化・高精度化が必要である．本研究は，全球気候モデルによる気候モデリングにおける波浪要素の重要性を示すものであり，今後の気候変動予測の高精度化に寄与する成果である．

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] CSIRO(オーストラリア)
• [Int'l Joint Research] CSIRO(オーストラリア)
• [Journal Article] Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Represented by the Ocean Wave-Coupled Atmospheric Global Climate Model Incorporating Wave-Dependent Momentum Flux (2022)
  • Author(s): Shimura Tomoya、Mori Nobuhito、Urano Daisuke、Takemi Tetsuya、Mizuta Ryo
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Pages: 499-515
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0362.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate (2022)
  • Author(s): Shimura T.、Pringle W. J.、Mori N.、Miyashita T.、Yoshida K.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 49 Issue: 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021gl097427
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] GLOBAL STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WAVE CHANGES UNDER WARMING CLIMATE FROM PAST TO FUTURE (2021)
  • Author(s): 志村智也、PRINGLE William J.、森信人、宮下卓也、吉田康平
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_949-I_954
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.77.2_I_949
  • NAID: 130008113413
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] DEVELOPMENT OF COUPLED ATMOSPHERIC-SLAB OCEAN MODEL GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES (2021)
  • Author(s): 岡田 智晴, 志村 智也, Adrean WEBB, 宮下 卓也, 森 信人, 水田 亮
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_961-I_966
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.77.2_I_961
  • NAID: 130008113395
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impacts of Ocean Wave‐Dependent Momentum Flux on Global Ocean Climate (2020)
  • Author(s): Tomoya Shimura, Mark Hemer, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Didier Monselesan
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 47 Issue: 20
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089296
  • NAID: 120006979785
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] SYSTEMATIC IMPACTS OF SURFACE DRAG CONSIDERING MISALIGNMENT OF WAVE-WIND DIRECTION ON TYPHOON CHARACTERISTICS (2020)
  • Author(s): 志村 智也, 森 信人, 浦野 大介, 水田 亮
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 76 Issue: 2 Pages: I_151-I_156
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.76.2_I_151
  • NAID: 130007935824
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] THE IMPACTS OF OCEAN SURFACE MIXING AND WAVE DEPENDENT ROUGHNESS ON CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY (2020)
  • Author(s): 浦野 大介, 森 信人, 志村 智也, 水田 亮
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 76 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1117-I_1122
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.76.2_I_1117
  • NAID: 130007935690
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] FUTURE PROJECTION OF SPECTRAL WAVE CLIMATE AROUND JAPAN (2019)
  • Author(s): 志村智也，森信人
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 75 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1177-I_1182
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.75.I_1177
  • NAID: 130007730132
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 過去から温暖化条件下の将来へのシームレスな全球高潮・高波評価 (2021)
  • Author(s): 志村智也
  • Organizer: 海岸工学講演会
• [Presentation] 波浪結合全球大気気候モデルによる波向－風向のずれを考慮した海面抵抗係数の台風統計量への系統的影響評価 (2020)
  • Author(s): 志村智也
  • Organizer: 海岸工学講演会
• [Presentation] FUTURE CHANGES IN SPECTRAL WAVE CLIMATE AROUND JAPAN UNDER GLOBAL WARMING (2020)
  • Author(s): Tomoya Shimura
  • Organizer: International Conference on Coastal Engineering
• [Presentation] Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean to surface wave dependent processes (2019)
  • Author(s): Tomoya Shimura
  • Organizer: AMOS-ICTMO 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 気候変動による日本周辺の波候スペクトルの将来変化予測 (2019)
  • Author(s): 志村智也
  • Organizer: 海岸工学講演会