| Project/Area Number |
19K15251
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 25020:Safety engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
陳 辰 神戸大学, 海事科学研究科, 客員准教授 (40793815)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | Weather simulation / tropical cyclone / ship navigation / Ship motion simulation / Optimal ship routing / mooring in port / wave / wind / simulation / 大気モデルWRF / パラメタリゼーションスキーム / 気象 / 南半球 / 実船実験 / 気象の不確実さ / 実船データ / 運航変化の高精度推定 / 気象・ 海象の不確実さ / 実船計測データ |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
海上輸送は現代社会にて物流の大動脈であり、天然資源が豊富な南半球と人口集中する北
半球の輸送拡大が予測される。しかし南半球は観測点が疎らであり、気象機関が公表するデータ内容にばらつき（気象の不確実さ）が見られ、船舶へ強く影響する南極からのうねりや大陸沿いに卓越する海流の推定精度はほぼ未検証である。
本研究は、実船データをもとに現地調査および数値計算にて気象の不確実さを低減する斬新な方法論を構築し、運航変化の高精度な推定を実現することにより、輸送需要が今後増加する南北間の海上輸送の高度化に大きく貢献する。
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
In the past one year, the tropical cyclone has been focused on.
Frequent activities of tropical cyclone (TC) are a major concern in maritime transportation, and although the frequency of TCs has decreased in recent years, the intensity of TCs has significantly increased, which will bring great risk to ship navigation along the north-south route between Japan and the Australia region.
The WRF model was utilized to figure out the different performances of two grid point value (GPV) datasets (NCEP FNL and ERA-5) using two horizonal resolutions of low (27-9-3 km) and high (9-3-1 km), on the trajectory and intensity simulation during the rapid intensification of one typical Typhoon Hato. Results shows a better performance of FNL than ERA-5 on both trajectory and intensity simulation.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The tropical cyclone has been focused on and investigated to make a better weather routing system between the Japan and Australia regions. Two world-widely used datasets such as the Ncep-Fnl and ERA-5 have also been included in our research to figure out their differences as well as the WRF downscaling effects. This work is supposed to be able to help make a safe and economic ship navigation in the North-South route between Japan and the Australia regions.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
Our present study primarily focused on investigating the variations in cyclone intensity and trajectory between the two initial fields in the near-surface layer with different WRF downscaling effects. And as a next-step study, we will try to utilize the WRF model, in conjunction with shipborne meteorological observation data, to investigate the safety risks of ship navigation induced by future TCs with the rapid intensification (RI) in the North and South Pacific Ocean.
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