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Examining reasonable worst case scenarios: Case of nuclear disaster risk management

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K15271
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research InstitutionKansai University

Principal Investigator

Sugawara Shin-etsu  関西大学, 社会安全学部, 准教授 (70638006)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords原子力安全 / 安全目標 / 最悪シナリオ / リスク評価 / 予測シミュレーション / 原子力災害 / 予測 / リスク管理 / 合理的最悪シナリオ / How safe is safe enough / リスク・ガバナンス / 原子力防災
Outline of Research at the Start

大規模な災害のたびに「最悪シナリオ」の必要性が叫ばれるが、「どこまでの『最悪』を想定し備えておくべきか」という理論的探求は十分に行われないまま、実務上の対応が先行している。こうした現状は、個別具体の場面で想定が引き上げられる一方でシステム全体としての整合性・一貫性を欠いていたり、想定が一部専門家内部でのみ行われ、その妥当性を広く吟味する機会が限定的であったりするなど、多くの問題を孕む。本研究では、「複雑な社会-技術システムのリスク管理に資する、合理的な『最悪シナリオ』の想定はどうあるべきか?」という問いを立て、原子力災害リスク管理を例にとり、リスク・ガバナンス論の知見を基にこの問題を考究する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

While worst case scenarios and predictive simulations are expected to play a crucial role in nuclear and public health emergencies, there are many challenges in calibrating and contextualizing them in the science-policy interfaces. Taking nuclear disasters and COVID-19 as examples, this study examines how those scenarios and simulations are mobilized and abandoned, as well as how their uncertainties are represented and perceived among several actors, reflecting the knowledge and perspectives of nuclear science, science and technology studies, and philosophy of technology.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

最悪シナリオや予測シミュレーションは、原子力災害やパンデミックなどの緊急時において、起こりうる将来像を「科学的」に描くための強力なツールとして社会的・政治的に大きな注目を集めるが、その数値の解釈や活用方法等をめぐり、しばしば激しい論争が生じる。本研究は、そのような評価や予測をめぐる期待や摩擦がどのように生じるのかを、過去の事例をもとに明らかにし、類似の目的で開発される評価・予測手法の研究や実装における示唆を導出した。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (28 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2019

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] The multistability of predictive technology in nuclear disasters2023

    • Author(s)
      Sugawara Shin-etsu
    • Journal Title

      Social Studies of Science

      Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 495-521

    • DOI

      10.1177/03063127231161609

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Ensuring a prudent combination of risk insights and a defense-in-depth philosophy through a reinterpretation of hierarchical safety goals2022

    • Author(s)
      Sugawara Shin-Etsu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

      Volume: - Issue: 7 Pages: 1-11

    • DOI

      10.1080/00223131.2022.2142310

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Re-embedding Geological Disposal in Distant Futures: Future-centered approach and its exploratory trial2022

    • Author(s)
      Shin-etsu Sugawara, Hanae Arimune, Eito Kamigawara, Moe Kobayashi, Yuria Komma, Nene Saito, Arisa Takaya, Shiori Deguchi, Yota Nakagawa, Takuto Nakamura, Ryoga Hata, Kei Hirakawa, Setsuka Hirano, Yusuke Murayama, Daisuke Morita, Yuna Morimoto, and Yuta Ryuman
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of International Youth Nuclear Congress (IYNC) 2022

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Eliminating Human Agency: Why Does Japan Abandon Predictive Simulations?2021

    • Author(s)
      Sugawara Shin-etsu
    • Journal Title

      Science, Technology, & Human Values

      Volume: - Issue: 2 Pages: 343-373

    • DOI

      10.1177/01622439211051777

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 新聞メディアはCOVID-19 をどう報じたか?― 全国紙における「接触8割減」の内容分析―2021

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦・小林誠道・長井裕傑
    • Journal Title

      社会安全学研究

      Volume: 11 Pages: 57-81

    • NAID

      40022544381

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 原子力分野における安全目標とその社会的議論の批判的分析 ―リスク観の転換に向けて―2021

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Journal Title

      年報『科学・技術・社会』

      Volume: 30

    • NAID

      40022645560

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Structural ignorance of expertise in nuclear safety controversies: Case analysis of post- Fukushima Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Kohta Juraku and Shin-etsu Sugawara
    • Journal Title

      Nuclear Technology

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 安全目標における「社会」の位置付けに関する概念的検討2023

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2023年春の年会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] マイクロ炉の安全目標に関する予備的検討2022

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦・大槻昇平・淀忠勝・蒲原覚
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2022年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 「想定」の打破に向けた体系的アプローチの予備的検討2022

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      第11回科学社会学会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Media representation of ‘numbers’ in the pandemic: Japanese case and its implications for risk governance2022

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Kobayashi, Shin-etsu Sugawara
    • Organizer
      SRA Asia Conference 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 安全目標と継続的安全性向上に関する一考察2022

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      第35回リスク学会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 『リスク受容』と知識への着目2021

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      科学社会学会2021年年次大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 『リスク受容』再考2021

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      TONERICO第2回研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Prediction Abandoned: Japanese cases of COVID-19 and nuclear disaster2021

    • Author(s)
      S. Sugawara and K. Juraku
    • Organizer
      4S (Society for Social Studies of Science) Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A pitfall of integrating different approaches: how to avoid cherry-picking2021

    • Author(s)
      S. Sugawara
    • Organizer
      SRA-Europe 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] リスクコミュニケーションに 着目したコメント及び議論2021

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2021年春の年会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Structural Ignorance in Nuclear Safety and Emergency Preparedness Controversies: Case of Post-Fukushima Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Kohta Juraku and Shin-etsu Sugawara
    • Organizer
      OECD/NEA Workshop, The nuclear and social science nexus: challenges and opportunities for speaking across the disciplinary divide, Paris
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Calculation Automates the Decision: Historical Sociology of Radiological Consequences Simulation Technology for Nuclear Emergency in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Kohta Juraku and Shin-etsu Sugawara
    • Organizer
      Society for the History of Technology
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] One more reflection on Fukushima: Incorporating the conditionality of knowledge into nuclear safety goals2019

    • Author(s)
      Shin-etsu Sugawara
    • Organizer
      Society for Risk Analysis Europe
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 「安全目標」再考(1):「滑稽な安全」に陥らないために2019

    • Author(s)
      山口彰、佐治悦郎、千歳敬子、浦田茂、前原啓吾、菅原慎悦、竹内純子
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2019年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 「安全目標」再考(2):価値の相克に向き合う2019

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦、山口彰、佐治悦郎、千歳敬子、浦田茂、前原啓吾、竹内純子
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2019年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 「安全目標」再考(3):我が国における定性的上位安全目標の提案2019

    • Author(s)
      佐治悦郎、山口彰、菅原慎悦、浦田茂、千歳敬子、前原啓吾、竹内純子
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2019年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 技術と倫理との相互作用2019

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      日本原子力学会2019年秋の大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 事前計画におけるシナリオ想定の「合理性」に係る検討:原子力災害を例に2019

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      第32回日本リスク学会年次大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 安全目標と「社会」:専門家判断と客観性2019

    • Author(s)
      菅原慎悦
    • Organizer
      シンポジウム:「安全目標」再考
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 検証 COVID-19災害2022

    • Author(s)
      関西大学 社会安全学部
    • Total Pages
      316
    • Publisher
      ミネルヴァ書房
    • ISBN
      9784623093410
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 新型コロナで世の中がエラいことになったので関西大学がいろいろ考えた。2021

    • Author(s)
      関西大学編
    • Total Pages
      231
    • Publisher
      浪速社
    • ISBN
      4888545359
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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