Global Perspectives of Spatial and Temporal Variations in Seasonality of Suicide and Temperature-Suicide Association

• Project/Area Number: 19K17104
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 52030:Psychiatry-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Kim Yoonhee 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 准教授 (40746020)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: Suicide / Temperature / Season / Multi-country

Outline of Research at the Start

This research has three main parts: 1) compiling local-specific indicators with the existing database, 2) investigating spatial variations in the seasonality of suicide and the temperature-suicide association, and 3) examining if the seasonality and the association for temperature change over time.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Literature suggests that suicide risk varies seasonally, and there is a growing body of evidence reporting a short-term temperature-suicide association. High levels of temperature increase suicide risk. However, there is a lack of understanding of which local characteristics may modify the suicide seasonality and the temperature-suicide relationship, or whether the association may change over time.

We collected and analyzed daily time-series data across 408 locations in 26 countries using a unified statistical modeling approach. We found that a temperature-suicide relationship exists, and that the seasonality of suicides and the temperature-suicide relationship varied by local characteristics. However, there was no clear evidence that the suicide seasonality and the temperature-suicide relationship varied over time. This study has important implications for assessing the health impacts of climate change in populations with high suicide rates.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は自殺の季節性と気温―自殺の短期的関連性を明らかにした大規模な観察疫学研究であり、自殺率が高い人口集団で気候変動と健康影響評価に対する重要な保健学的視点を提供する。特に、気候変動による精神健康影響評価の必要性と気候変化による爆炎及び熱帯夜から生じうる精神疾患負荷推定において、より正確なモデル構築と計算方法が必要であることを示唆する。研究結果を通して、科学的根拠は持続的な方法論の発展を図り、未来の気候変動による精神疾患影響緩和及び適応政策にも役に立つと期待される。最終的に自殺予防による予測モデル構築に寄与すると期待される。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Heat-mortality risk and the population concentration of metropolitan areas in Japan: a nationwide time-series study (2021)
  • Author(s): Lee W, Ebi KL, Kim Y, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hashimoto H, Choi HM, Choi M, Kim H.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 50 Issue: 2 Pages: 602
  • DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyaa245
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 (2021)
  • Author(s): Madaniyazi L, Chung Y, Kim Y, Tobias A, Ng CFS, Seposo X, Guo Y, Honda Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Hashizume M.
  • Journal Title: Environ Health Prev Med Volume: 26(1) Issue: 1 Pages: 69-69
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Nonparametric Bayesian Functional Meta-Regression: Applications in Environmental Epidemiology (2021)
  • Author(s): Yu J, Park J, Choi T, Hashizume M, Kim Y, Honda Y, Chung Y
  • Journal Title: Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics Volume: 26 Issue: 1 Pages: 45-70
  • DOI: 10.1007/s13253-020-00409-z
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seasonality of suicide: a multi-country multi-community observational study (2020)
  • Author(s): Yu J, Yang D, Kim Y, Hashizume M, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Honda Y, Tobias A, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Kim H, Íñiguez C, Lavigne E, Ragettli MS, Scovronick N, Acquaotta F, Chen B, Guo YL, Coelho MSZS, Saldiva PHN, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Bell ML, Diaz M, Valencia CDC, Holobac I, Fratianni S, Chung Y
  • Journal Title: Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences Volume: 29
  • DOI: 10.1017/s2045796020000748
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors (2020)
  • Author(s): Sim K, Kim Y, Hashizume M, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Sera F, Ng CFS, Honda Y, Chung Y
  • Journal Title: Environment International Volume: 142 Pages: 105829-105829
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105829
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study (2019)
  • Author(s): Kim Y、Kim H、Gasparrini A、Armstrong B、Honda Y、Chung Y、Ng CFS、Tobias A、Iniguez C、Lavigne E、Sera F、Vicedo-Cabrera AM.、Ragettli MS.、Scovronick N、Acquaotta F、Chen BY、Guo YLL、Seposo X、Dang TN、Coelho MSZS、Saldiva PHN、Kosheleva A、Zanobetti A、Schwartz J、Bell ML.、Hashizume M
  • Journal Title: Environmental Health Perspectives Volume: 127 Issue: 11 Pages: 117007-117007
  • DOI: 10.1289/ehp4898
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model (2019)
  • Author(s): Kim Yoonhee、Ratnam J. V.、Doi Takeshi、Morioka Yushi、Behera Swadhin、Tsuzuki Ataru、Minakawa Noboru、Sweijd Neville、Kruger Philip、Maharaj Rajendra、Imai Chisato Chrissy、Ng Chris Fook Sheng、Chung Yeonseung、Hashizume Masahiro
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 9 Issue: 1 Pages: 17882-17882
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53838-3
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Differences of Rainfall-Malaria Associations in Lowland and Highland in Western Kenya (2019)
  • Author(s): Matsushita N、Kim Y、Ng CFS、Moriyama M、Igarashi T、Yamamoto K、Otieno W、Minakawa M、Hashizume M
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume: 16 Issue: 19 Pages: 3693-3693
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16193693
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Associations of chemical composition and sources of PM2.5 with lung function of severe asthmatic adults in a low air pollution environment of urban Nagasaki, Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Ng Chris Fook Sheng、Hashizume Masahiro、Obase Yasushi、Doi Masataka、Tamura Kei、Tomari Shinya、Kawano Tetsuya、Fukushima Chizu、Matsuse Hiroto、Chung Yeonseung、Kim Yoonhee、Kunimitsu Kenichi、Kohno Shigeru、Mukae Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Environmental Pollution Volume: 252 Pages: 599-606
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.05.117
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] High temperature and suicide: current evidence and challenges (2021)
  • Author(s): Kim Y
  • Organizer: Environmental Research 2021
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Ambient temperature and injury-related deaths in Japan from 1979 to 2015 (2021)
  • Author(s): Pan R, Honda Y, Minakuchi E, Kim SE, Hashizume M, Kim Y
  • Organizer: ISEE 2021
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Risk of suicide associated with ambient temperature: evidence across multiple countries (2019)
  • Author(s): Kim Yoonhee
  • Organizer: The 3rd International Forum on Climate Change and Health Response
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Suicide risk associated with season and temperature in Japan, 1972-2015; the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors (2019)
  • Author(s): Chung Yeonseung, Kim Yoonhee, Sim Kisung, Gasparrini Antonio, Armstrong Benedict, Sera Francesco, Yang Dae-won, Ng Chris Fook Sheng, Honda Yasushi, Hashizume Masahiro
  • Organizer: ISEE 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Temperature and Assault Deaths:Their Relationship and Implications of Climate Change (2019)
  • Author(s): Kim Satbyul Estella, Kim Yoonhee, Honda Yasushi, Hashizume Masahiro, Hijioka Yasuaki, Kim Ho
  • Organizer: ISEE 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-City Multi-Country Study (2019)
  • Author(s): Kim Yoonhee
  • Organizer: 2019 GRL (Global Research Laboratory) international symposium: Health impact assessment of air pollution and climate change in Asia
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Remarks] GEH Publications
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/envhealth/publications
• [Remarks] GEH Publications
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/envhealth/publications?authuser=1
• [Remarks] MCC Collaborative Research Network
  • URL: https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/
• [Remarks] 東京大学医学系研究科 国際環境保健学
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/envhealth/publications