| Project/Area Number |
19K19343
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 58010:Medical management and medical sociology-related
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
Lee Hyojung 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 助教 (40823365)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
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| Keywords | Ebola virus disease / Forecasting / Reporting delay / Reproduction number / Ebola Virus Disease / Vaccination coverage / Mathematical model |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The goal is to estimate the vaccine coverage by age and provinces, accounting for the sexual transmission. A province-specific model is formulated to estimate reporting delay. Sensitivity analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis are conducted to assess the economic burden until the end of epidemic.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic occurred in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2018-19 was analyzed.
The EVD epidemic including spatial heterogeneities and vaccination was forecasted in real time. We estimated the future reproduction numbers accounting for the reporting delay. This work was published as follows:
A.R. Akhmetzhanov*, H Lee*, S.M. Jung, et. al, Analyzing and forecasting the Ebola incidence in North Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2018-19 in real time, Epidemics, 27, 123-131, 2019 (* represents the co-first author)
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