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The political feasibility of optimal monetary policy in a currency union with exit options

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K23239
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionHokkaido University (2022)
Kobe International University (2019-2021)

Principal Investigator

Yuta Saito  北海道大学, 経済学研究院, 講師 (80847822)

Project Period (FY) 2019-08-30 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywords通貨同盟 / 金融政策 / 時間非整合性 / 退出 / インフレーション・バイアス / 不確実性 / 期待 / 経済危機 / 金融市場 / 通貨統合 / 政治経済学 / 資産価格 / 集団的政策決定 / 時間整合性
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究は通貨統合における退出オプションの存在が、加盟国による集合的な金融政策の選択に与える影響を分析する。ギリシャ危機やBrexitなど、経済通貨統合からの退出行動は欧州 において大きな社会問題になっているが、経済学の観点から言及できることは限定的である。ある国がどのような状況下で合理的に通貨統合を退出するのか。ある国の退出行動は通貨統合内の金融政策運営にどのような影響を与えるのか。退出行動を防ぐために、通貨統合はどのような制度を備えるべきであるか。このような素朴であるが時局的な問いに関して、定性的な答えを提示することが、本研究の目的である。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The two main outcomes of the study are.
(1) Using a currency union model consisting of developing and developed countries, it is shown that the higher the probability of a country leaving a currency union, the higher the proportion of developing countries within the currency union is required to implement optimal monetary policy.
(2) We considered a model in which a member country would have to pay an exogenous social cost if it exited the currency union. The exiting country can implement discretionary monetary policy, but suffers from a time incompatibility problem as in Barro and Gordon (1983). In their model, they show that optimal monetary policy is only feasible if there is no probability that any country will exit from the monetary union.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、通貨同盟における退出オプションの存在が、加盟国の集団的な金融政策の選択に与える影響を分析したものである。ギリシャ危機やBrexitなど、経済通貨同盟からの離脱行動が欧州で大きな社会問題となっていたが、経済学的な観点から言えることは限られていた。本研究は、ある加盟国の離脱やその可能性の上昇は、通貨同盟における通貨の期待インフレ率に影響を与え、インフレーションバイアスを引き起こす可能性があることを示した。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2022 2020

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A Note on Time Inconsistency and Endogenous Exits from a Currency Union2022

    • Author(s)
      Saito Yuta
    • Journal Title

      Games

      Volume: 13 Issue: 2 Pages: 21-21

    • DOI

      10.3390/g13020021

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Capital taxation with parental incentives2022

    • Author(s)
      Saito Yuta、Takeda Yosuke
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Public Economic Theory

      Volume: 24 Issue: 6 Pages: 1310-1341

    • DOI

      10.1111/jpet.12608

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The role of vaccination in a model of asset pricing during a pandemic2022

    • Author(s)
      Saito Yuta
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 17 Issue: 4 Pages: e0266511-e0266511

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0266511

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] A note on exit and inflation bias in a currency union2020

    • Author(s)
      Yuta Saito
    • Journal Title

      MPRA Paper

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Exit Expectations, Time Inconsistency, and the Optimal Design of a Currency Union2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuta Saito
    • Organizer
      American Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Exit Expectations, Time Inconsistency, and the Optimal Design of a Currency Union2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuta Saito
    • Organizer
      American Economic Association 2022 Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2019-09-03   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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