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Framework for dynamic risk analysis towards supply security of metals

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K24394
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 1101:Environmental analyses and evaluation, environmental conservation measure and related fields
Research InstitutionNational Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

Yokoi Ryosuke  国立研究開発法人産業技術総合研究所, エネルギー・環境領域, 研究員 (80849894)

Project Period (FY) 2019-08-30 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords金属資源 / 希少性 / 安定供給 / クリティカリティ / 物質フロー分析 / 産業連関分析 / 要因分解分析 / 資源リスク / ライフサイクル影響評価 / 特性化
Outline of Research at the Start

金属資源の安定確保リスク評価に関する従来の研究では、資源需給の将来変化や一次資源および二次資源中に共存する複数資源の関係性が十分に考慮されていないという問題がある。本研究では、それらの要素を考慮して将来にわたる金属資源の安定確保リスクの新たな評価・管理手法を開発することを目指す。これにより、より実際の資源供給制約に即した将来における資源の安定確保リスクの評価フレームを構築し、我が国の今後の安定的な資源確保戦略の策定に貢献できると期待される。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A scarcity indicator was introduced to assess the country-specific sustainability of mining, which is represented by the ratio of mine production to reserves. In addition, we analyzed Japanese scarcity-weighed metal footprints for iron, copper, and nickel, which represent the supply risk of metals, by incorporating the scarcity indicator into metal footprint accounting by international input-output analysis. The analysis showed that the supply of iron and copper in Japan depends on countries with relatively low scarcity, while the supply of nickel in Japan depends on some countries with relatively high scarcity.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

今まで全球規模で評価されることが多かった金属資源の希少性を国別で評価できる評価指標を導入し、さらにフットプリント分析と組み合わせることによって、金属消費国と金属採掘国の関係性を、採掘活動の持続可能性をふまえて分析することを可能とした。本成果は、持続的な金属利用のための資源調達リスク管理に向けて、採掘活動の持続可能性という観点からのリスク軽減のための有効な対策の議論への貢献が期待される。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2021 2020

All Journal Article (3 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Responsibility of consumers for mining capacity: decomposition analysis of scarcity-weighted metal footprints in the case of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Yokoi Ryosuke、Nansai Keisuke、Nakajima Kenichi、Watari Takuma、Motoshita Masaharu
    • Journal Title

      iScience

      Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 102025-102025

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.isci.2020.102025

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Significance of country-specific context in metal scarcity assessment from a perspective of short-term mining capacity2021

    • Author(s)
      Yokoi Ryosuke、Nansai Keisuke、Hatayama Hiroki、Motoshita Masaharu
    • Journal Title

      Resources, Conservation and Recycling

      Volume: 166 Pages: 105305-105305

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105305

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] International inequality in in-use metal stocks: What it portends for the future2021

    • Author(s)
      Watari Takuma、Yokoi Ryosuke
    • Journal Title

      Resources Policy

      Volume: 70 Pages: 101968-101968

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101968

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Responsibility of Consuming Countries for Mining Capacity: Decomposition Analysis of Scarcity-weighted Metal Footprints in the Case of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryosuke Yokoi, Keisuke Nansai, Kenichi Nakajima, Takuma Watari, Masaharu Motoshita
    • Organizer
      SETAC Europe 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Responsibility of Consumers for Pressure on Mining Capacity: Decomposition Analysis of Scarcity-weighted Metal Footprints in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryosuke Yokoi, Keisuke Nansai, Kenichi Nakajima, Takuma Watari, Masaharu Motoshita
    • Organizer
      icRS 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 日本の消費活動が世界の採掘容量へ及ぼす影響の低減:希少性メタルフットプリントの要因分解分析2021

    • Author(s)
      横井崚佑, 南斉規介, 中島謙一, 渡卓磨, 本下晶晴
    • Organizer
      第49回環境システム研究論文発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Responsibility of Consuming Countries for Pressure on Mining Capacity: Decomposition Analysis of Scarcity-weighted Metal Footprints in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryosuke Yokoi, Keisuke Nansai, Kenichi Nakajima, Takuma Watari, Masaharu Motoshita
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 将来需要変化を考慮した中長期的な鉱物資源枯渇ポテンシャルの評価2021

    • Author(s)
      横井崚佑, 渡卓磨, 本下晶晴
    • Organizer
      第16回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Abiotic Depletion Potentials from different time perspectives based on future demand projections2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryosuke Yokoi, Takuma Watari, Masaharu Motoshita
    • Organizer
      EcoBalance2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 金属資源の国別の一次供給源における希少性評価2020

    • Author(s)
      横井崚佑, 南斉規介, 畑山博樹, 本下晶晴
    • Organizer
      第48回環境システム研究論文発表会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 日本による世界各国の金属資源の希少性に及ぼすインパクトの要因分析2020

    • Author(s)
      横井崚佑、中島謙一、南斉規介、本下晶晴
    • Organizer
      第15回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-09-03   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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