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Developing a Scenario Simulation Method for Woody Biomass Utilization Contributing to SDGs

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19KT0008
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section特設分野
Research Field Agricultural Resources for the Next Generation
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

KISHITA YUSUKE  東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 准教授 (60617158)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 赤松 史光  大阪大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (10231812)
梅田 靖  東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 教授 (40242086)
Project Period (FY) 2019-07-17 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥18,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥8,580,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,980,000)
Keywordsバイオマス / シナリオ分析 / エネルギー事業 / プランニング / シミュレーション / 木質バイオマス / エネルギー / シナリオ / 事業プランニング / ビジョン / SDGs / エネルギーシステム / 地域性
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では、中山間地域における木質バイオマスのエネルギー利用を対象として、持続可能な開発目標(SDGs)に資する将来ビジョンの作成支援を目的としたシナリオシミュレーション手法を開発する。本手法の特色は、中長期的な社会の変化を記述した叙述的なシナリオと、そこでの前提に基づいた定量的なシミュレーションを組み合わせることで、本研究で収集する客観的なデータに基づく将来ビジョンの作成を科学的に支援する点である。ケーススタディでは、中山間地域を有する自治体を対象として、その地域性(locality)を考慮しながら2050年までの将来ビジョンを作成する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research aimed to develop a method for supporting the planning of sustainable woody biomass energy businesses. In order to systematize knowledge and know-hows required to execute the planning process, we developed a planning item list, consisting of 32 items, based on a literature review and interviews with stakeholders. We developed the planning process to describe and evaluate multiple business scenarios, which are detailed from the input data of the planning item list.The proposed method was demonstrated using a case study of the heat supply business in Kamiyama Town, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の学術的な特色のひとつは、文献調査および事例調査に基づいて、木質バイオマスエネルギー事業のプランニングに必要な知識・ノウハウをプランニング項目リストとして体系化した点にある。さらに、プランニング項目リストの入力結果に基づく事業シナリオの作成・評価を通して、様々な事業案の検討を可能とした。この研究成果は、従来は熟練プランナーのみが有していたプランニングのスキルを社会に広く普及させるために役立つものであり、結果として、持続可能な木質バイオマスエネルギー事業の普及に役立つものと考える。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (28 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 Other

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Foresight and Roadmapping Methodology: Trends and Outlook2021

    • Author(s)
      Kishita Yusuke、University of Tokyo
    • Journal Title

      Foresight and STI Governance

      Volume: 15 Issue: 2 Pages: 5-11

    • DOI

      10.17323/2500-2597.2021.2.5.11

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 20212021

    • Author(s)
      Kishita Yusuke、Kusaka Toshiki、Mizuno Yuji、Umeda Yasushi
    • Journal Title

      FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE

      Volume: 3 Issue: 3-4

    • DOI

      10.1002/ffo2.91

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] An approach to quantifying narrative scenarios for sustainable consumption and production using participatory backcasting2021

    • Author(s)
      Sota Onozuka, Yusuke Kishita, Mitsutaka Matsumoto, Michikazu Kojima, Yasushi Umeda
    • Journal Title

      Global Environmental Research

      Volume: 25 Pages: 23-30

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Designing Technology Diffusion Roadmaps of Thermoelectric Generators Toward a Carbon-Neutral Society2021

    • Author(s)
      Kishita Yusuke、Kashima Shun、Kawajiri Kotaro、Isoda Yukihiro、Shinohara Yoshikazu
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

      Volume: n/a Pages: 1-8

    • DOI

      10.1109/tem.2021.3125614

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures2020

    • Author(s)
      Kishita Yusuke、Mizuno Yuji、Fukushige Shinichi、Umeda Yasushi
    • Journal Title

      Technological Forecasting and Social Change

      Volume: 160 Pages: 120207-120207

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120207

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Backcasting-Based Method for Designing Roadmaps to Achieve a Sustainable Future2020

    • Author(s)
      Okada Yuki、Kishita Yusuke、Nomaguchi Yutaka、Yano Tomoaki、Ohtomi Koichi
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

      Volume: - Issue: 1 Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1109/tem.2020.3008444

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Citizen-Participatory Scenario Design Methodology with Future Design Approach: A Case Study of Visioning of a Low-Carbon Society in Suita City, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Uwasu Michinori、Kishita Yusuke、Hara Keishiro、Nomaguchi Yutaka
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 12 Issue: 11 Pages: 4746-4746

    • DOI

      10.3390/su12114746

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Integrating wastewater treatment and incineration plants for energy-efficient urban biomass utilization: A life cycle analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Nakatsuka Noriaki、Kishita Yusuke、Kurafuchi Tatsuya、Akamatsu Fumiteru
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Cleaner Production

      Volume: 243 Pages: 118448-118448

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118448

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report 2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Applying Natural Language Processing to Support Scenario Structuring for Sustainable Futures2022

    • Author(s)
      高天正, 木下裕介, 梅田靖
    • Organizer
      第17回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Scenario analysis of sustainable circulation system of traction lithium-ion batteries2022

    • Author(s)
      Fuwei Tao, Yusuke Kishita, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      第17回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 木質バイオマスエネルギー事業を対象としたプランニング支援手法の提案2022

    • Author(s)
      西田拓未, 木下裕介, 中塚記章, 赤松史光, 梅田靖
    • Organizer
      第17回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Undertaking scenario analysis of the diffusion of car sharing services: A case study in Bangkok, Thailand2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryota Odagaki, Yusuke Kishita, Pongsun Bunditsakulchai, Saroch Boonsiripant, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2021: The 12th International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Collaborative scenario design methodology for sustainable futures2021

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kishita
    • Organizer
      Asia Chapter of the Design Society Networking Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Computer-aided Roadmapping and Scenario Design for Sustainability2021

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kishita
    • Organizer
      2021 Asia-Pacific Roadmapping Webinar
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Scenario-based planning support for sustainable woody biomass energy business: A case study of a Japanese rural community2021

    • Author(s)
      Takumi Nishida, Yusuke Kishita, Noriaki Nakatsuka, Fumiteru Akamatsu, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2021: The 12th International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Toward developing scenario design methodology: Analysis and typology of scenario practice2021

    • Author(s)
      Toshiki Kusaka, Yusuke Kishita, Yuji Mizuno, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2021: The 12th International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Toward developing a backcasting framework: A systematic approach to designing sustainable futures2021

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Kishita, Mattias Hojer, Jaco Quist
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2021: The 12th International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] シナリオ分析を用いた木質バイオマスエネルギー事業プランニング支援手法の提案2021

    • Author(s)
      西田拓未, 木下裕介, 中塚記章, 赤松史光, 梅田靖
    • Organizer
      第31回日本機械学会設計工学・システム部門講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] シナリオ設計支援方法論の構築に向けたシナリオ事例の分析と類型化2021

    • Author(s)
      日下俊輝, 木下裕介, 水野有智, 梅田靖
    • Organizer
      Designシンポジウム2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Quantitative Assessment Method for Supporting Scenario Worksohps toward Sustainable Consumption and Production2021

    • Author(s)
      Sota Onozuka, Yusuke Kishita, Michikazu Kojima, Mitsutaka Matsumoto, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      The 28th CIRP Conference on Life Cycle Engineering
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 木質バイオマスエネルギーを対象とした事業プランニング支援: 事例調査に基づく概念整理2021

    • Author(s)
      西田拓未, 木下裕介, 中塚記章, 赤松史光
    • Organizer
      第16回日本LCA学会研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Development of Product Circulation Model to Evaluate Scenarios of Sustainable Consumption and Production for Southeast Asia2020

    • Author(s)
      Sota Onozuka, Yusuke Kishita, Yasushi Umeda
    • Organizer
      Electronics Goes Green 2020+
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Simulation of Woody Biomass Co-generation System Considering Time-varying Heat Demand: A Japanese Community Bathhouse Case Study2019

    • Author(s)
      Noriaki Nakatsuka, Yusuke Kishita, Fumiteru Akamatsu
    • Organizer
      EcoDesign 2019: The 11th International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 熱需要変動に応じた木質バイオマス熱電併給システムの動的シミュレーション: 温浴施設の事例分析2019

    • Author(s)
      中塚記章, 赤松史光, 木下裕介
    • Organizer
      日本機械学会第24回動力・エネルギー技術シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Dynamic Simulation of Woody Biomass Co-generation System Considering Time-varying Heat Demand: A Japanese Community Bathhouse Case Study2020

    • Author(s)
      Noriaki Nakatsuka, Yusuke Kishita, Fumiteru Akamatsu
    • Total Pages
      14
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 研究室ホームページ

    • URL

      http://www.susdesign.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kishitalab/

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 木下研究室ホームページ

    • URL

      http://www.susdesign.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kishitalab/

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] http://www.susdesign.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kishitalab/

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-07-22   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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